Global warming reports 'scientifically unsound'

L Gilbert

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Unpredictable, sure, but Occams Razor cxan be applied to what we DO know and have accurate figures for- simply put, all that carbon that was buried in the ground for time immemorial (by god or nature or whatever) was likely underground for a reason- we figgered out how to dig it up, and suddenly stuff is happening all over the globe, some of which has never happened before. I am sure we don't control anything here on the planet, but all the crap we burn everyday simply HAS to be having some effect, considering the scale on which it's happening- anyone who can flat-out say that there's NO WAY that ANY of our actions has ANY effect is an idiot, plain and simple- call it what you will, but we're makin a mess of the only planet we have...
I wholeheartedly agree. But the bit I think we can do without is the panic and hype. It serves no purpose other than to sell newspapers.

And as for profits- listen to many folks who are against Kyoto (and frankly I wish that term didn't exist, it's WAY too fractious and has turned into a talkin-point style swear word- maybe we could come up with something else) and you'll hear, VERY often "We can't afford it" or "people don't WANT to change their standard of living"... this is the BEST argument most on the "con" side can come up with
Possibly, but it isn't a good argument. The best one I've heard is thatPoliticians got their mitts on a bit of scientific data and spun it round and round. Same with the IPCCs prereport. I would prefer to see the real report than the aftermath of political spin.

I still have yet to understand , in the traditional "follow the money" way of thinking, who exactly would be raking in the BILLIONS from a more environmentally responsible way of living on this planet- however, when looking at the targetted industries, I can certainly see who stands to LOSE from it... totally unscientific, but Occams razor says that maybe, just maybe, all this obfuscation is intentional
This is the part I don't mind at all. If a few alternate energy companies spring up and start cutting into oil company profit, so much the better. There are probanly quite a few more businesses that could come into being just because the people starting them up thought of some green products. Um, apparently, at least one oil company (Shell) takes the alternative energy thing seriously because it has been puring millions into research on the subject.

I DO find it funny that we can't "afford" nor "don't want" to do everything we can to guarantee our continued existence- the "con" (not politically, but rather "against" here) side really doesn't make any sense to me somehow
It doesn't to me either, which is why I think this "can't afford it" stuff just a buncha hype, too.
 

L Gilbert

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on the longer timescale it won't have added anything. the sun appears to be in a roughly 11 years cycle. so over one hundred years we have ten maxima and ten minima. Also the difference between maximum and minimum isnt hugely pronounced, and the effect of sunspots on the earth's weather is pretty much unknown. The major consequences of sunspots are aurorae
Yeah. Some disruption in telecommunication signals and the like: pretty pics in NASA's (et al) photo section, too.
 

I think not

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We can go back and forth all day long regarding Kyoto, Global Warming and the rest of it.

Bottom line, does anyone like going to the beach and observing the filth in it?

You like waking up in the morning in a big city and you think it's an overcast, but in reality it's smog?

We can all do better.

Governments are rarely effective. I applaud them when they are, but lets not sit on our collective asses and point fingers. Because in the end, it's the consumers driving increased pollution.
 

L Gilbert

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We can go back and forth all day long regarding Kyoto, Global Warming and the rest of it.

Bottom line, does anyone like going to the beach and observing the filth in it?

You like waking up in the morning in a big city and you think it's an overcast, but in reality it's smog?

We can all do better.

Governments are rarely effective. I applaud them when they are, but lets not sit on our collective asses and point fingers. Because in the end, it's the consumers driving increased pollution.
Well, pretty much everything in NorthAm is consumer driven. So that's where the message should be pointed towards, get people off their assets and cleaning up their act. Panicking them is silly, sticking it to their pocketbooks works, though, and that's something I think gov'ts can do really well: environmental taxes and extremely good tax breaks for green companies.
 

jimmoyer

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Apr 3, 2005
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Bottom line, does anyone like going to the beach and observing the filth in it?

You like waking up in the morning in a big city and you think it's an overcast, but in reality it's smog?

We can all do better.

Governments are rarely effective. I applaud them when they are, but lets not sit on our collective asses and point fingers. Because in the end, it's the consumers driving increased pollution.

----------------------------------------------------ITN----------------------------------------------------------

Excellent post, ITN.

My sentiments exactly.

Now if we can make it a DOUBLE GREEN revolution where there's money in it being the
pioneers of new tech, then maybe some clean up will be accomplished more readily than
by government fiat full of bureaucratic loop dee loop loopholes.
 

Cobalt_Kid

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@ L.Gilbert

"The press and politicians have discovered the issue and now it's everywhere and blown out of proportion, scientists have known the planet's been warming for a long time, yet all of a sudden in the past few months it's an issue? It sells newspapers and airtime. It's sensational. Politicians want to make a name for themselves. You think any of these people in the press and gov't give a crap about the planet or what happens? No."

Yah I can agree with that, media is more about entertainment now than providing accurate information.

I still think it's important to get people motivated to make the changes neccessary to protect the environment. Climate change isn't the only problem, our oceans are in rough shape and getting worse. The amount of plastic floating around in the sea is staggering, something like 40,000 pieces per square mile.
 

Avro

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It's a big issue because there has also suddenly been resistence to the idea of GW being caused by man and nothing is being done about it.

The following article explains who is responsible and how....

Slamming the Climate Skeptic Scam

1 Dec 05
There is a line between public relations and propaganda - or there should be. And there is a difference between using your skills, in good faith, to help rescue a battered reputation and using them to twist the truth - to sow confusion and doubt on an issue that is critical to human survival.

And it is infuriating - as a public relations professional - to watch my colleagues use their skills, their training and their considerable intellect to poison the international debate on climate change.
That's what is happening today, and I think it's a disgrace. On one hand, you have the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the largest and most rigorously peer-reviewed scientific consensus in history, advising that:
  • climate change is real;
  • it is caused by human activity; and
  • it is threatening the planet in ways we can only begin to imagine.
On the other hand, you have an ongoing public debate - not about how to respond, but about whether we should bother, about whether climate change is even a scientific certainty.

Few PR offences have been so obvious, so successful and so despicable as the attack on the scientific certainty of climate change.
This is a triumph of disinformation. It is a living proof of the success of one of the boldest and most extensive PR campaigns in history, primarily financed by the energy industry and executed by some of the best PR talent in the world. As a public relations practitioner, it is a marvel - and a deep humiliation - and I want to see it stop.
Here's the way it works: Public relations is not a process of telling people what to think; people are too smart for that, and North Americans are way too stubborn. Tell a bunch of North Americans what they are supposed to think and you're likely to wind up the only person at the party enjoying your can of New Coke.
No, the trick to executing a good PR campaign is twofold: you figure out what people are thinking already; and then you nudge them gently from that position to one that is closer to where you want them to be. The first step is research: you find out what they know and understand; you identify the specific gaps in their knowledge. Then you fill those gaps with a purpose-built campaign. You educate. If people are afraid to take Tylenol (as they were after someone poisoned some pills), you explain the extensive safety precautions now typical in the pharmaceutical industry. If people think Martha Stewart is arrogant and uncaring, you create opportunities for her to show a more human side.
In the best cases - the cases that are most personally rewarding - the advice you give to clients actually drives corporate behavior. That is, if a client wants to protect or revive their reputation, if they want to convince the public that they're running a responsible company and doing the right thing, the most obvious public relations advice is that they should do the right thing.
It's the kind of advice that, historically, has been a hard sell in the tobacco industry, in the asbestos industry - and too often in the automotive industry. Those sectors have provided some of the most famous examples of PR disinformation: "smoking isn't necessarily bad for you;" "it's not an absolute certainty that asbestos will give you cancer;" "your seatbelt might actually kill you if you're the one person in five million who flips his car into a watery ditch."
But few PR offences have been so obvious, so successful and so despicable as the attack on the scientific certainty of climate change. Few have been so coldly calculating and few have been so well documented. For example, Ross Gelbspan, in his books, The Heat is On and Boiling Point sets out the whole case, pointing fingers and naming names. PR Watch founder John Stauber has done similarly exemplary work, tracking the bogus campaigns and linking various pseudo scientists to their energy industry funders.
One of the best examples - the most compelling proofs that the disinformation generation is no accident - came in a November 2002 memo from political consultant Frank Luntz to the U.S. Republican Party. Luntz followed the rules: he did the research; he identified the soft spots in public opinion; and he made a clever critical judgment about which way the public could be induced to move.
In a section entitled "Winning the Global Warming Debate," Luntz says this (and all the points of emphasis are his own):
"The Scientific Debate Remains Open. Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate, and defer to scientists and other experts in the field."
If you download the memo and read the whole thing, you will notice that Luntz never expressly denies the validity of the science. In fact, he says, "The scientific debate is closing [against us] but is not yet closed."
" ... not yet closed"? Among those who disagree with that assessment are the 2,500 scientists in the IPCC, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the Royal Society of London and the Royal Society of Canada Donald Kennedy, editor-in-chief of Science magazine, says, "We're in the middle of a large uncontrolled experiment on the only planet we have." And to back up his sense of certainty, he reported that Science had analysed the 928 peer-reviewed climate studies published between 1993 and 2003 and found not a single one that disagreed with the general scientific consensus.
Journalists have consistently reported the updates from the best climate scientists in the world juxtaposed against the unsubstantiated raving of an industry-funded climate change denier - as if both are equally valid.
Notwithstanding, Luntz wrote: "There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science." He recommended that his Republican Party clients do just that. He urged them to marshal their own "scientists" to contest the issue on every occasion. He urged them to plead for "sound science" a twist of language of the sort that George Orwell once said was "designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidarity to pure wind."
Luntz's goal - embraced with unnerving enthusiasm by the Bush Administration - is to manufacture uncertainty and to politicize science. Like all tragedy, it would be hilarious if you could play it for laughs.
It's an open question as to whether Luntz and company are being willfully blind or grossly negligent in the way they have ignored the science - and the potential catastrophic risks that they promote. But whichever way you cut it, their actions reflect badly on the whole public relations industry.
Conspiracy theorists will be happy to hear that I'm not suggesting that Frank Luntz or even a dubious cabal of ethics-free PR people are solely to blame for the public confusion on climate change. They have received extensive, if clumsy assistance from the media, which in a lazy and facile attempt to provide "balance" is willing to give any opinion equal time as long as it is firmly in contradiction with another.
This is not just a feature of the point/counterpoint talking heads that have emerged as the principal vehicle for television news. Newspaper reporters are just as guilty of canvassing "both sides" of every argument, often without providing any critical judgment as to the validity or relative weight of either side. On the issue of climate change, journalists have consistently reported the updates from the best climate scientists in the world juxtaposed against the unsubstantiated raving of an industry-funded climate change denier - as if both are equally valid. This is not balanced journalism. It is a critical abdication of journalistic responsibility. Any reporter who cannot assess the relative merits of a global scientific consensus - especially in contradiction to an "expert" that the coal industry is paying to help "clear the air" - deserves to have his pencil taken away in solemn ceremony and broken into bits.
There is yet more blame to go around. You could criticize scientists for the dense, cautious and conditional language that they use in talking about the threats of climate change. But in science, credibility is a currency (this, in apparent contradiction to the state of affairs in journalism or PR). A scientist who strays, even momentarily, off the path of certainty or who wanders from hard science into policy is immediately dismissed as someone with an axe to grind.
You could also criticize environmentalists, whose tendency has been to stray too far in the other direction, extrapolating scientific assumptions to create scare stories so dispiriting that they create apathy rather than activism. These, in turn, have made easy targets for the energy industry's climate change deniers.
The important thing at this point, however, is not to assign blame. It is to educate yourself and to join this increasingly urgent policy debate. This is not one of those relatively low-level PR boondoggles. We're not talking about single individuals dying because the auto industry held out against seat belt laws. We're not even talking about many 100s of thousands of people dying of lung cancer because the tobacco industry held out for "sound science" while actively increasing the amount of addictive nicotine in their product. We're talking about the future of the planet.
So please read on. Read everything. Check out the sites that deny the reality of climate change and then check on www.sourcewatch.org to see who paid for those opinions. Don't accept the word of people who pass themselves off as "skeptics." Be skeptical yourself. Ask yourself what motive the scientific community has to gang up and invent a phony climate crisis. Compare that to the motives that ExxonMobile or Peabody Coal might have to deny that burning fossil fuels indiscriminately could change irrevocably our existence on the planet.
And if you still leave the lights on when you're done, make sure they're shining in the shamed faces of the PR pros who are still trying to prevent sound, sensible policy change to affect this, perhaps the biggest threat humankind has ever faced.

http://www.desmogblog.com/slamming-the-climate-skeptic-scam
 

L Gilbert

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@ L.Gilbert

"The press and politicians have discovered the issue and now it's everywhere and blown out of proportion, scientists have known the planet's been warming for a long time, yet all of a sudden in the past few months it's an issue? It sells newspapers and airtime. It's sensational. Politicians want to make a name for themselves. You think any of these people in the press and gov't give a crap about the planet or what happens? No."

Yah I can agree with that, media is more about entertainment now than providing accurate information.

I still think it's important to get people motivated to make the changes neccessary to protect the environment. Climate change isn't the only problem, our oceans are in rough shape and getting worse. The amount of plastic floating around in the sea is staggering, something like 40,000 pieces per square mile.
Yep, it is important.
The best motivator in a consumer driven world I've seen is to hit em in the wallet.
 

mabudon

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Right, some actual really good posts here now!!

I think what ITN posted is a good point, and pretty much sums up what a few others have said (myself included) I would rather see the end of the whole "Kyoto Protocol" as it currently exists IF and that should be a huge IF a fairly radical set of new programs are made up to replace it- there MUST be industrial emissions rules, as well as industry standars for product emissions...

one of THE most important steps which could be taken (and this one could be rather expensive AT first, but would soon correct itself) is some sort of life-of-product accountability laws- both for the producst AND the packaging. If the companies that pump out (or the companies that import it into the economy once already made elsewhere) all the CRAP there is out there were held, in a more significant way, accountable for the stuff they churn out I think we'd see a LOT of progress on the overall environmental issue

That isn't perfect, but it'd be a start, and I invite anyone else to comment on this (I guess I could start a new thread with it at the head, but it IS on topic here too) This is based on checking out all of the responses to me and the others here in the thread, and is a recent modification of some rather outdated thinking o' mine
 

L Gilbert

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It's a big issue because there has also suddenly been resistence to the idea of GW being caused by man and nothing is being done about it.

The following article explains who is responsible and how....
Well, it's an opinion anyway. But, the guy does state my point rather well, that people are easily confused and they should get off their butts and read, compare, and analyse for themselves. As the guy said, "The important thing at this point, however, is not to assign blame. It is to educate yourself and to join this increasingly urgent policy debate."
There is one thing I beg to differ with, they guy said that the IPCC report "advises that
  • climate change is real;
  • it is caused by human activity;
  • is threatening the planet in ways we can only begin to imagine."
Well, I didn't realize that the IPCC report had been released. I go to their site and they say that the 4th report is coming out. This means that it isn't out yet and what they did publish was a recommendation list assembled from the results of the report. I don't know where this guy got his info of the actual report from, but I bet he doesn't have it, only a copy of the recommendation list. So as of yet I still haven't seen anything scientific that says we've been the CAUSE of this warming. I have seen lots of editorials, like this one for instance.

 

I think not

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Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country. - JFK

I think it applies here as well.

I'm not big on pointing fingers towards others that pollute (yeah I mean everybody), when I am not the best example myself. I try, but I will admit, my first motivation is financial. If I can afford to make a change that will benefit me financially and at the same time benefit the environment, I'm all for it, no questions asked.

If however the costs associated with improving the environment cause pain financially, sorry but I ignore it.

I do expect the government to enforce certain rules, and I believe to a certain extent they have, we all seem to ignore this part. Check statistics on economic growth in comparison to energy consumption, it has gone down or remained steady.

We're getting there, ever so slowly but we will get it right.
 

L Gilbert

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Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country. - JFK

I think it applies here as well.

I'm not big on pointing fingers towards others that pollute (yeah I mean everybody), when I am not the best example myself. I try, but I will admit, my first motivation is financial. If I can afford to make a change that will benefit me financially and at the same time benefit the environment, I'm all for it, no questions asked.

If however the costs associated with improving the environment cause pain financially, sorry but I ignore it.
I can understand that. I was doing the same thing for a while, but I noticed going green actually saved me some bucks here and there, so that offset the bits where going green cost me a few bucks.
I do expect the government to enforce certain rules, and I believe to a certain extent they have, we all seem to ignore this part. Check statistics on economic growth in comparison to energy consumption, it has gone down or remained steady.
You expect government to enforce efficiency? Government? I would suggest forst we get government to be efficient.

We're getting there, ever so slowly but we will get it right.
No choice.
 

Avro

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Well, it's an opinion anyway. But, the guy does state my point rather well, that people are easily confused and they should get off their butts and read, compare, and analyse for themselves. As the guy said, "The important thing at this point, however, is not to assign blame. It is to educate yourself and to join this increasingly urgent policy debate."
There is one thing I beg to differ with, they guy said that the IPCC report "advises that
  • climate change is real;
  • it is caused by human activity;
  • is threatening the planet in ways we can only begin to imagine."
Well, I didn't realize that the IPCC report had been released. I go to their site and they say that the 4th report is coming out. This means that it isn't out yet and what they did publish was a recommendation list assembled from the results of the report. I don't know where this guy got his info of the actual report from, but I bet he doesn't have it, only a copy of the recommendation list. So as of yet I still haven't seen anything scientific that says we've been the CAUSE of this warming. I have seen lots of editorials, like this one for instance.

Is this the one you are looking for?

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
 

Cobalt_Kid

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Excellent article on the last page Avro, it pretty much confirms what I've been thinking for a while.