Federal Poll: Conservatives Declining to 8 point lead

[Semperfi_dani]

RE: Federal Poll: Conserv

Remember though..polls don't reflect the results of the election. If polls did..thant he PC's would have had a hell of a lot more seats than 3 in the 1993 election.

I think that if you look at momentum and seats in particular battleground areas..that will be a better indication of what the trends are.

The only thing that the Cons at this point have to fear is that the momentum train started too early..and will peter out. In the last week of elections, when voters have to actually think about the issue, you will get a more precise reflection of the general mood. At this point the undecideds are making their decisions.

Until the vote is cast, its anyones game.

 

[Semperfi_dani]

RE: Federal Poll: Conserv

And one of the things i could see..that noone is factoring in.

Everyone assumes that those that fear Harper will swing to the Liberals...maybe not so. That the weak NDP people will jump to the Liberals to save canada...maybe not so.

But the other thing that people aren't considering is that if Canadians are tired of instability, and want a more permanant gov't for the next few years, they may say fuck it, vote for the Cons who have the momentum..give them a chance to show what they can do..and if we don't like it, goodbye in four years.

I do not think there has ever been two back to back minority governments..am i correct? If voters who fear more of the same from the last two years, they will vote for the leader to avoid it. And add to that the Lib/NDP vote split scenario...and the greens mixed in...

 

[FiveParadox]

Consecutive Minority Governments

:arrow: Consecutive Minority Governments in Canada

Actually, Semperfi_dani, Canada at one time had three consecutive minorities in the House of Commons; two of which were under the Liberal Party of Canada, and the third was under the Conservative Party of Canada.

(a) In 1921, the Liberal Party of Canada was elected to the House of Commons with one seat less than a majority. Due to a lack of unity in the Progressive Party of Canada, where votes were often contradictory within the party, the Government was able to proceed as if it in fact held a majority of seats.

(b) In 1925, the Liberal Government of Canada lost by sixteen seats to the Conservative Party; however, invoking a rarely-used prerogative of the Prime Minister, the Right Honourable William Lyon Mackenzie King secured the confidence of the House of Commons, with the support of the Progressive Party.

(c) In 1926, Mr. Mackenzie King requested the dissolution of the House of Commons when his party risked losing the support of the House; however, the Governor General of Canada, Lord Byng of Vimy, refused his request and instead appointed the Right Honourable Arthur Meighan as Prime Minister. The Conservative Party of Canada governed with a sixteen-seat minority, until he lost the confidence of the House less than a week later.

:arrow: Desire for a Majority Government in Canada

I would disagree with the assertion that Canadians want a majority government; I would think that, for the Thirty-ninth Parliament, at least, the citizens of Canada want to ensure that any Government that is elected would be given a "mandate on probation" — that is, where the Government could be defeated on a moment's notice if they happened to abuse the trust of the electorate.

 

[Finder]

If Canadian's wanted a Magority they wouldn't vote how they do right now. None of the parties look as if they will even have 40% of the vote. That means the magority of Canadians do not have confidance in any of the four magor parties! How could you ever come up with this false idea that if you have a magority in parliment with a minority vote that the magority of the people support you.

Canadian logic with FPTP is flawed. The only way I think any of the four (five if you include the green), can govern as if they have a magority is if they invite another party to governor with them. If we look at the pop vote thats what Canadians want. The numbers don't lie but our system does!


EDIT btw if we get another minority and we go back to the polls in a year, I think we can consider outselves a FPTP version of Italy.

 

[Colpy]

Re: Candidate's Comments

Unless Mr. Thomas' comments are publicly denounced by the Conservative Party of Canada, then I would consider a drop in their support to be quite justifiable. Such comments are unprecedented, unacceptable and simply un-Canadian.

Baloney.
The claim that these views are "unprecedented" is simply ridiculous.

Neither are they "unacceptable", as they promote neither hatred nor violence.

They are the views of a large segment of the Canadian population, as such they can hardly be "unCanadian".

We are still supposed to have freedom of speech in this nation, and if people don't like this guys' views, they simply shouldn't vote for him.

Remember, thirty-some Liberals voted against SSM.

 

[FiveParadox]

It's not the fact that he opposes same-sex marriage. Anyone has the right to oppose same-sex marriage, so long as they don't do so by waging war on homosexuality. Stripping rights once granted is hardly "righteous," in my opinion.

 

[Colpy]

Re: RE: Federal Poll: Conservatives Declining to 8 point lea

It's not the fact that he opposes same-sex marriage. Anyone has the right to oppose same-sex marriage, so long as they don't do so by waging war on homosexuality. Stripping rights once granted is hardly "righteous," in my opinion.

Yeah.

Had I been an MP, I would have voted against SSM, were I assured that homosexual couples would have the right to "civil unions" containing all the priviledges of marriage.

Now I wish the subject would just be dropped, and we could all move on to more important things.

Dropped in politics and Parliament, I mean, not here.

 

[Dexter Sinister]

Re: RE: Federal Poll: Conservatives Declining to 8 point lea

Now I wish the subject would just be dropped, and we could all move on to more important things.

Agreed, Colpy. It's a done deal as far as Parliament and the laws of the land are concerned, should be a dead issue unless the people rise up in very large numbers and demand a reconsideration, which they aren't doing and probably won't, because it doesn't affect them in any significant way. I've never seen an argument against SSM that isn't rooted in religion. I suspect there isn't one, and frankly I can't see that it makes any difference whether it's called a marriage or a civil union if there's no difference in law.

What the religious objectors have to grasp is that the rules promoted by their version of God don't apply outside the circle of believers. You can be married by a judge without benefit of clergy and it's a valid marriage in any jurisdiction. Marriage is primarily a civil contract, and even if you get married in a church the civil contract is part of it. In fact, it's all of it, according to the law. That's why if a judge does the service you have to sign only one set of documents for the civil contract, if you marry in a church you have to sign two sets, the civil contract and whatever forms are prescribed by the church. But only the former has any significance in law, and without it you aren't married.

 

[Finder]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...elxn_poll_060115/20060115?s_name=election2006


New poll has the Torys at 40%.. wow...

The NDP have taken a VERY big hit in BC. I'm very disappointed. But you know polls are polls.

Though the NDP did have small gains else where. Unfortunitly in Quebec they have had gains again but thats almost usless.

 

[Hank C]

Anywho, back to the topic of this thread.....

I just saw on CTV that the Conservatives have their largest lead ever at 13 points over the Liberals. They have also gained support in Ontario and even in the GTA I believe they are only 3 points behind the Liberals (we are talking about bleeding heart Grit Toronto here!!!). Same thing in Quebec as the Bloc support has fallen to the low 40s and the Torys have gained a few points, the Liberals have lost a few as well.

Sorry I dont have a link because a article has not been posted on the site yet, however there is a news clip if you wanna go to the CTV site.

http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2006/

 

[I think not]

Whoever wins, everyone is still going to work on the 24th., promise!

 

[nomore]

Re: Consecutive Minority Governments

I would disagree with the assertion that Canadians want a majority government; I would think that, for the Thirty-ninth Parliament, at least, the citizens of Canada want to ensure that any Government that is elected would be given a "mandate on probation" — that is, where the Government could be defeated on a moment's notice if they happened to abuse the trust of the electorate.

I Think personally a majority is what we need. While minority governments allow "checks" by the other parties, they also typically get very little legislation passed, rarely last a long time, and are not very productive for the Canadian people. Lets also not forget that each election is costing us around $300 million.

 

[Jay]

Whoever wins, everyone is still going to work on the 24th., promise!

If things turn out well, I just might take the day off!!

 

[Triple_R]

The latest poll released on CTV is startling. The Bloc down to the low 40s in percentage support in Quebec, while the Conservatives are now comfortably ahead of the Liberals in Quebec, and the Liberals a mere 3% over the Conservatives in the greater Toronto area. That all would have been unthinkable a mere two and a half weeks ago.

The Conservatives have some serious momentum going for them. This is getting bad for the Liberals. Very bad.
The shoe could fall off any moment now. This is Layton's big chance. The odds are still against him, but if the NDP is ever going to become the prefered party of left of center voters (in how they actually cast their votes), this is his chance.

Much like how the Reform began growing with the implosion of the PCs back in 1993, this is the NDP's chance to grow with a potential implosion of the Liberals in 2006.

 

[Finder]

NDP has nothing to lose really, everything to gain. I was also looking at popularity and Layton was rated highest. If soft Liberal and NDP voters who often vote Liberal see that the Liberals have already lost, and give up on a liberal victory..... well... will be interesting. It does look like it may still be a CPC-NDP gov.. but the cons might pull off a magority. of course the polls might be really wrong and the libs might still do it

 

[Triple_R]

Finder - That's what I'm thinking. At the very least, most people who are following the election campaign at all would have to consider at least a Conservative government of some sort to be a foregone conclussion at this point. So, I could see soft NDP/Liberal votes going one of two ways...

To the Liberals to prevent a Conservative majority.

To the NDP since they don't care that much on the majority vs. minority issue, and/or they simply can't stomache voting Liberal this time around.

 

[Toro]

RE: Federal Poll: Conserv

Its statistical noise.

The Tories are ahead by anywhere between 6-12 points, depending on the poll. But they are ahead.

 

[Breakthrough2006]

The momentum has continued to be in the Conservatives favour unabated. I give the Liberals until Wednesday or Thursday at the latest to turn this thing around. If there is no shift by then, it's over.

In fact, if this keeps up, there could be a huge Conservative majority coming. With 27% support in Quebec, that will surely win them some seats. The sign of the times is the fact that metro Toronto is beginning to turn Tory blue.

Even the most optimistic of Conservatives could not have dreamed of winning seats in Toronto. Now, there is a good posibility of one or two seats going Conservative.

 

[Calberty]

From CYV today:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...l_060115/20060116?s_name=election2006&no_ads=