Theresa May on track for the worst General Election result in Tory Party history - as Brexit Party is predicted to win more votes than Labour and Conservatives COMBINED in European elections, polls say
The Brexit Party is slated to win 34% of the vote in upcoming European elections
Labour is on 21% and the Tories are predicted to win just 11% of the vote
The data, from Opinium, also puts Labour first on 28% for a General Election
This is ahead of Conservatives on 22%, with the Brexit Party third on 21%
A separate poll puts the Brexit Party ahead of the Tories in a general election
ComRes survey puts Labour on 27%, Brexit Party on 20% and Tories on 19%
This would be the worst result in history for the Conservative Party
By
Henry Martin For Mailonline
12 May 2019
The
Brexit Party will earn more votes than Labour and the Conservatives combined in the European Parliament elections, and could even beat the Tories in a General election, two extraordinary polls revealed this morning.
In an Opinium poll in the Observer, focused on this month's European elections, Nigel Farage's new party is predicted to hoover up 34 per cent of the vote. The same poll gave Labour 21 per cent and put the Tories in a miserable fourth place with 11 per cent
But an even more extraordinary poll, commissioned by a Brexit Party donor and published in the Sunday Telegraph, said for the first time the Brexit Party would beat the Tories in a General Election.
The ComRes survey of voting intentions put Brexit on 21 per cent to the Conservatives' 20, which would see Farage's team win 49 seats, becoming the UK's second biggest party after Labour, with 137.
Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage while on the European Election campaign trail in Durham
The new data, from Opinium, predicts the Brexit Party will earn more votes than the Labour Party and the Tories combined in the European elections
The same poll also found that 28% of voters would back Jeremy Corbyn's party in a General Election, ahead of Theresa May's Conservatives on 22% - with the Brexit Party in third with 21%
Andrew Hawkins, the chairman of ComRes, described the poll as a 'disaster', adding: 'If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead.'
It will deepen the panic spreading among Tory members, as more than 600 Tory association chairmen, councillors, donors and activists, wrote to the Telegraph to warn that if Mrs May cannot deliver a clean exit, MPs must replace her urgently or 'risk disaster'.
They wrote: 'Voters could not be clearer in saying how angry and betrayed they feel – Conservative voters most of all. The damage that this is doing to party and country is incalculable.'
The polls are terrible news for Theresa May, pictured here attending church near her Maidenhead constituency this morning
The polls follow calamitous council elections, where Mrs May oversaw the loss of nearly 1,300 Tory councillors, and comes ahead of a predicted wipeout in the European elections in the next fortnight.
The poll shows the Conservatives would lose 46 seats to the Brexit Party, dethroning Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt, Health Secretary Matt Hancock and party chairman Brandon Lewis.
And Labour would take the scalps of Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith and Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, with the Tories retaining support from less than half of those who voted for them in 2017.
Jeremy Corbyn would be able to lead a minority government with 27% support, leaving the Brexit Party with 20% and the Conservatives 19% support, according to the poll commissioned by Brexit Express.
A separate poll put Labour on 27% for a General Election, followed by the Brexit Party on 20% - ahead of the Tories by 1%
Mr Farage met with former Tory MP Ann Widdecombe and spoke at a party event at the 2000-seat Rainton Meadows Arena in Houghton on May 11
Brexit Express is a campaign group run by Jeremy Hosking, a major Tory donor who has now given £200,000 to Mr Farage's party.
Depending on how the votes were distributed, if the polls' predictions are right, the country could see another hung parliament, with deals between party leaders being made to form a coalition government - or a minority government being formed, with no party having an overall majority.
Nigel Farage has said that his new party would 'break the two-party system', claiming that 'millions of people would give up on' the two major parties if
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn reached a Brexit deal.
Appearing at a rally on May 11 while campaigning in Sunderland, Mr Farage told his supporters that Mrs May's Brexit deal is 'like a surrender document of a nation that has been defeated in war'.
Mr Farage met with former Tory MP Ann Widdecombe and spoke at a party event at the 2000-seat Rainton Meadows Arena in Houghton this afternoon, and was cheered by hundreds of people at the rally where he lambasted both the Tory government and the Labour leadership.
Mr Farage said: 'It (Brexit) hasn't happened partly because of the dishonest, duplicitous and utterly useless Prime Minister in Theresa May.
'No question, she is the worst Prime Minister in the history of this country, bar none.'
He told the rally Mrs May's deal would be a new EU treaty 'that will cost us, for reasons I've yet to understand, £39 billion... a treaty that may well leave us trapped inside the EU's custom union in perpetuity'.
He added: 'This treaty that she wants to put through is more like a surrender document of a nation that has been defeated in war.'
Pictured: Nigel Farage during his walkabout while on the European Election campaign trail in Durham
The two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, continue to drop votes, with Labour falling five points and the Tories four in the last fortnight (pictured: Mr Farage in Houghton le Spring)
'She has humiliated our country on the international stage and I've had enough of it.'
According to the Opinium poll, the strongest force among the anti-Brexit parties appears to be the
Liberal Democrats, who are slated to win just 12% of votes in the European elections - one point ahead of the Conservatives.
The Greens would score just eight per cent in the European elections, followed by UKIP and the SNP on four per cent and Change UK on just three per cent, the data says.
Two weeks ago Mr Farage's party was tied with Jeremy Corbyn's on 28%, but a campaign of rallies across the country - often targeting traditionally Labour-voting areas in northern England - seems to be growing more and more support for the former UKIP leader.
Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said Mr Farage was capitalising on a clear pro-Brexit position, whilst Remain supporters are forced to choose between several parties - although 57% would like to see a pro-Remain alliance.
He said: 'On the European elections, while the question of which party Brexit voters should back was settled some time ago, the equivalent for Remain voters is still ambiguous.
Nigel Farage, pictured left eating a fruitcake in Sunderland, tweeted the figures out, saying: 'Accurate or not, these are great numbers and out movement for democracy is gathering pace'
'The picture is most stark when we split out Leave and Remain voters - while 63% of Leavers say they will vote for the Brexit Party in the European elections, the most popular party among Remainers (still Labour) only has 31% versus 22% for the Lib Dems and 14% for the Greens.
'Interestingly, Brexit voters have deserted the Tories to such an extent that the Conservatives actually have a higher share of the European vote among Remainers (12%) than among Leavers (11%).'
Meanwhile, voting intentions for the Westminster elections show the Brexit Party would also be snapping at the Tories' heels in a general election.
Labour is out in front with 28% support, followed by the Tories on 22%, the survey shows, but the Brexit Party is just behind on 21%.
Mr Drummond said it was 'remarkable' the new party could be on the cusp of overtaking the party of government.
Pictured: Nigel Farage during a rally while on the European Election campaign trail in Durham
Although Mr Drummond cautioned the European election in less than two weeks could be 'bleeding into' and 'inflating' the Westminster results, he said the level of support was still notable.
'It would be reasonable to assume that this would fall back in an actual general election campaign, but the fact a party that is less than six months old is now vying with the governing party for second place is remarkable,' he said.
'The Tories' reliance on Leave voters seemed sensible in the aftermath of the referendum.
'But raising expectations of the kind of deal the UK could get and using the phrase 'no deal is better than a bad deal' so relentlessly was always going to open the party up to this kind of challenge once those expectations could not be met.'
The two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, continue to drop votes, with Labour falling five points and the Tories four in the last fortnight.
But the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats are reaping the rewards of public frustration and are both on the up, with the former rising five points and the latter four - taking the Lib Dems to fourth place with 11%.
The Brexit Party's Twitter page has repeatedly posted a clip of Labour peer Andrew Adonis speaking on LBC, saying: 'If you're a Brexiteer, I hope you won't vote for the Labour Party because the Labour Party is moving increasingly against Brexit'.
Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Mrs May last week made a desperate appeal to Jeremy Corbyn to 'do a deal' to help push through her Brexit deal - offering concessions to Labour on policies such as a customs union, angering Leavers within her own party.
Eurosceptics reacted with fury to the plan for a so-called 'customs framework' or 'customs arrangement', describing it as 'abject surrender'.
This latest poll appears to show a dissatisfaction with both Labour and the Tories, who suffered losses in the local elections earlier this month.
The poll will likely add to the pressure that is rising within Mrs May's party for her to set a departure date.
The Prime Minister is set to meet with the executive of the Conservative backbencher 1922 Committee next week, where it is thought the PM and her MPs will come to an 'understanding' as to when she will leave No 10.
The Opinium poll featured data from 2,004 people, taken online between May 8 and May 10.
UKIP slogan appears on ballots
Twitter users have pointed out that UKIP's slogan 'make Brexit happen' appears under their party name in the ballot paper for European elections.
Uploading a picture of his form for the country's North East region, one social media user posted: 'Just received my ballot for the EU election.
'I wonder why UKIP get a tagline, 'Make Brexit happen', after their name and none if the other parties do.'
Twitter users asked the Electoral Commission if it was 'normal' to allow slogans.
Twitter users have pointed out that UKIP's slogan 'make Brexit happen' appears under their party name
Uploading a picture of his form for the country's North East region, one social media user posted: 'Just received my ballot for the EU election. I wonder why UKIP get a tagline, 'Make Brexit happen', after their name and none if the other parties do'
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