Early 2009 Atlantic Hurricane predictions

[Tonington]

Last year, the group at Colorado State lead by Bill Gray came pretty close with their early predictions for the season which officially begins on July 1.

This year, Gray's co-author in years past Dr. Phil Klotzbach is leading the group, as Dr. Gray steps back after 22 years leading the group at Colorado State. They are predicting an average season, with averages for the 1950-2000 baseline in parentheses

• 12 named storms (9.6)
• 55 named storm days (49.1)
• 6 hurricanes (5.9)
• 25 hurricane days (24.5)
• 2 intense hurricanes (2.3)
• 5 intense hurricane days (5.0)

They also listed some probabilities for storms making landfall on the US coast. For the entire US coastline, the probability of an intense hurricane ( > category 3) is 54%, 2 points above average. For the Gulf coast that probability is 31%, one point above average, and for the East coast, including the Florida Peninsula, that percentage is 32, also one point above average.

They are predicting that the La Nina will develop into neutral conditions, possibly into a weak El Nino. If those conditions aren't met, then they expect the totals to be higher than predicted. Another reason for the average predictions this year is the anomalously cool waters in the Eastern Atlantic.