Death knell for AGW

#juan

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It's an old trick of the Global Science con job.. they find isolated example their hypothesis and ignore everything else. Why don't they show the advancing ice shelves in Antarctica.. Because they are involved in a massive criminal fraud.. that's why.

There is no possible argument against the fact that the planet Earth is warming up. Glaciers are retreating in both the northern and southern hemispheres. I know our Arctic from having worked there. I know that the changes in that part of the world are dramatic. Ask any Alaskan.

http://tinyurl.com/qa3pm
 

Scott Free

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There is no possible argument against the fact that the planet Earth is warming up. Glaciers are retreating in both the northern and southern hemispheres. I know our Arctic from having worked there. I know that the changes in that part of the world are dramatic. Ask any Alaskan.

http://tinyurl.com/qa3pm

I think we're going to have to learn how to live with it since we don't have any idea what is causing GW. Likewise there is nothing we can do to stop it. We are subject to natures cycles, she is not subject to us; this is even more true now since this cycle seems to be solar system wide.

Perhaps reducing carbon would help for now but there is no reason to think such a policy will help in the future or assist the other planets going through the same thing.

I think we're better off trying to assist people who are in trouble because of climate change instead of creating a new economic bubble to line the global elites pockets with even more cash. I don't think channeling inflation into GW technology will work any better than it did to channel it into housing. Eventually people will catch on.

What we need, more than anything else, is a sustainable global economic model. That really might save our environment and the planet.
 

#juan

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I think we're going to have to learn how to live with it since we don't have any idea what is causing GW. Likewise there is nothing we can do to stop it. We are subject to natures cycles, she is not subject to us; this is even more true now since this cycle seems to be solar system wide.

Perhaps reducing carbon would help for now but there is no reason to think such a policy will help in the future or assist the other planets going through the same thing.

I think we're better off trying to assist people who are in trouble because of climate change instead of creating a new economic bubble to line the global elites pockets with even more cash. I don't think channeling inflation into GW technology will work any better than it did to channel it into housing. Eventually people will catch on.

What we need, more than anything else, is a sustainable global economic model. That really might save our environment and the planet.

Don't you think it is a bit naive to think that we can dump ten billion tons of CO2 into our atmosphere without ant effect?

BTW, Whatever is going on on Mars or Jupiter, are unlikely to be related to anything we experience here.
 

Scott Free

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Don't you think it is a bit naive to think that we can dump ten billion tons of CO2 into our atmosphere without ant effect?

I didn't say that. What I said is that we don't know that removing it would do anything about GW because we don't know what is causing GW.

So my original argument was that it makes no sense, in times of economic hardship and corporate migration east, to further straddle our economies with the burden of reducing emissions when the east isn't even slightly interested in doing the same. There is no proof that our doing such a thing is going to keep change from happening because, clearly, we are not the cause of the change in the first place.

BTW, Whatever is going on on Mars or Jupiter, are unlikely to be related to anything we experience here.

I disagree, it has everything to do with what is happening here. The odds of three planets all simultaneously heating up in the same decade for different and unrelated reasons is so vastly remote that it can not be a coincidence. It is simply so improbable that it can not happen. There is and must be a common reason for the increase in temperature.
 

#juan

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Jupiter, Mars, and Earth all have vastly different atmospheres. Jupiter has always given off more heat than it gets from the sun. Jupiter's storms are not powered by the sun but by the giant planet's own hot core.

The atmosphere on Mars is only a hundredth as dense as that of Earth and Martian dust has as much to do with temperature change on that planet as it's thin atmosphere. Mars would be quite a bit warmer if we somehow pumped that ten billion tons of CO2 into that atmosphere instead of our own.
 

Scott Free

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Jupiter, Mars, and Earth all have vastly different atmospheres. Jupiter has always given off more heat than it gets from the sun. Jupiter's storms are not powered by the sun but by the giant planet's own hot core.

The atmosphere on Mars is only a hundredth as dense as that of Earth and Martian dust has as much to do with temperature change on that planet as it's thin atmosphere. Mars would be quite a bit warmer if we somehow pumped that ten billion tons of CO2 into that atmosphere instead of our own.

So what could be causing all these planets to warm up? All your arguing is that the completely improbable is probable, therefore your probably wrong. Smart money would bet against you.

I tend to think that maybe there are forces at work or extra planetary environmental factors at work that we don't know about. Is the sun warmer; are we closer; is there another factor?

But to say planetary bodies in our solar system are warming up and it has nothing to do with the sun, that every occurrence of warming (including moons) is due to localized conditions and has nothing at all to do with common conditions, is a logical fallacy and in gross error; just like saying curbing green house gas emissions will stop GW is a logical fallacy and a gross error. It may help slow it down (I will agree with that) but it will not stop it because it isn't the cause, therefore it hasn't the ability to stop it.
 

#juan

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So what could be causing all these planets to warm up? All your arguing is that the completely improbable is probable, therefore your probably wrong. Smart money would bet against you.

I tend to think that maybe there are forces at work or extra planetary environmental factors at work that we don't know about. Is the sun warmer; are we closer; is there another factor?

But to say planetary bodies in our solar system are warming up and it has nothing to do with the sun, that every occurrence of warming (including moons) is due to localized conditions and has nothing at all to do with common conditions, is a logical fallacy and in gross error; just like saying curbing green house gas emissions will stop GW is a logical fallacy and a gross error. It may help slow it down (I will agree with that) but it will not stop it because it isn't the cause, therefore it hasn't the ability to stop it.

If the surface of Jupiter were heating up, it would be heating up because of it's own internal heat. Jupiter is actually cooling off, and will be cooling off for a few billion years yet.

Mars is not heating up by the same mechanisms as those heating the Earth. The three situations are not in any way the same.
 

L Gilbert

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Watched a documentary about the sun the other day and they were saying that they are just starting to look into with wavelengths of radiation coming from it may have a warming effect on our rock. Sounded to me that the sun has more to do with warming us than we'd thought before.
Anyway, if the average temp of Earth hasn't risen since '98 why have the glaciers, permafrost, polar caps kept thawing at an increasing rate. Ocean temps have gotten higher since '98.
Besides that, anyone that listens to politicians and/or the newsmedia for scientific information is off their nut.
 

Tonington

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That is your argument not mine. Mars, Jupiter, Earth and some moons have been observed to be warming up. There must be a commonality between them that can account for this. Carbon emissions from pollution is not common to all the planets, therefore, it can not be the reason.

Umm, yes, it is your argument turned around. Do you not remember saying this:

I am not so stupid that I think we are the reason. If you can explain how my carbon emissions are causing global warming on Mars and Jupiter then I will concede you have a point.

So, greenhouse gases are not a common rising factor to all planets, so it can't be the reason that other planets are warming.

Can you not see the connection? You say the anthropogenic greenhouse effect isn't common to all planets, well neither is the cause on Jupiter, or Mars similar to any of the other two situations.

You're trying to make some claim that it's natural, but all three conditions are different, so how can it be the same cause? The obvious answer, the one that satisfies Occam's is that they aren't the same.

Further, none of the "skeptic" arguments are producing testable hypothesis, except those that they cling to: sun, the one common factor that suspiciously can't explain the wide varied circumstances of these warming planets.

If you can explain to me, how the sun warms the troposphere, and cools the stratosphere, well then you might have something to start with. If you can explain to me how the sun is heating the Earth at a faster rate during the night hours than it is during the daytime hours, well you're now getting close to earning a Nobel prize in Physics. In any event, 'skeptics' have no such arguments, no such mechanisms except 'unknown physical phenomena' that must exist. The only problem is that we already have known mechanisms that explain these things. And if you do find the the 'unknown physical phenomena', it will have to explain this, but also cancel out the effect of rising greenhouse gases.

There must not be any commonality. If all planets, moons, and other satellites were warming, well then you'd have a plausible reason for saying such things. To suggest something like that when not all are warming is a logical fallacy, a non-sequitur.
 

Scott Free

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So, greenhouse gases are not a common rising factor to all planets, so it can't be the reason that other planets are warming.

Seriously...? It doesn't matter what the hell the planets have or don't have in common except they are warming. Who gives a sh!t if they have carbon in their atmosphere or not? Your totally missing the point.

Can you not see the connection? You say the anthropogenic greenhouse effect isn't common to all planets, well neither is the cause on Jupiter, or Mars similar to any of the other two situations.

You've got to be kidding me!?! SO WHAT!!!

You're trying to make some claim that it's natural, but all three conditions are different, so how can it be the same cause? The obvious answer, the one that satisfies Occam's is that they aren't the same.

Really... wow. All three conditions are the same - they are warming... holy hell...

Further, none of the "skeptic" arguments are producing testable hypothesis, except those that they cling to: sun, the one common factor that suspiciously can't explain the wide varied circumstances of these warming planets.

So what are you suggesting? That we cling to one that is completely improbable and obviously wrong?

If you can explain to me, how the sun warms the troposphere, and cools the stratosphere, well then you might have something to start with. If you can explain to me how the sun is heating the Earth at a faster rate during the night hours than it is during the daytime hours, well you're now getting close to earning a Nobel prize in Physics. In any event, 'skeptics' have no such arguments, no such mechanisms except 'unknown physical phenomena' that must exist. The only problem is that we already have known mechanisms that explain these things. And if you do find the the 'unknown physical phenomena', it will have to explain this, but also cancel out the effect of rising greenhouse gases.

We have mechanisms that explain how heat can be trapped we don't have mechanisms that explain where all the heat is coming from - all the heat warming the solar system not just earth.

There must not be any commonality. If all planets, moons, and other satellites were warming, well then you'd have a plausible reason for saying such things. To suggest something like that when not all are warming is a logical fallacy, a non-sequitur.

We don't know if all of them are heating up or not; we only know some of them are which means it is probable that they all are.

Your throwing the baby out with the bath water. What your saying is that if you stick your hand in this fire you'll get burned but that doesn't mean the other fire over there will burn you...
 

Scott Free

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If the surface of Jupiter were heating up, it would be heating up because of it's own internal heat. Jupiter is actually cooling off, and will be cooling off for a few billion years yet.

Then you had better inform the scientific community. You seem to be more expert then them. :roll:

Mars is not heating up by the same mechanisms as those heating the Earth. The three situations are not in any way the same.

Really? And you know this how? Do you have any idea how improbable it is that all these moons and planetary bodies would start spontaneously warming on their own and all in the same decade for different reasons? Roughly 64 trillion to 1 by my estimate.
 
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#juan

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Jupiter is a gas giant which retains a very hot core. Jupiter gives off more heat than it receives from the sun

http://tinyurl.com/4m77cx

All these moons and planetary bodies are not warming up. Do some reading. You are arguing from complete ignorance.
 

Tonington

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Seriously...? It doesn't matter what the hell the planets have or don't have in common except they are warming. Who gives a sh!t if they have carbon in their atmosphere or not? Your totally missing the point.

No. The point as Zzarchov and others have said is that on these different planets, the causal relationship with their respective climate change is different. Three different causes on Earth, Mars and Jupiter. The same effect. There is more than one way to warm a planet.

You've got to be kidding me!?! SO WHAT!!!

I'm not kidding.

Really... wow. All three conditions are the same - they are warming... holy hell...

All three conditions aren't the same. That's the whole point that you seem to be missing. Recently many people have died from natural disasters in both Burma and China. Are both of those conditions the same?

So what are you suggesting? That we cling to one that is completely improbable and obviously wrong?

I'm suggesting that you don't have a single causal mechanism that explains the effects on Earth, Mars, and Jupiter. There is nothing improbable about what is happening here, except that some people can't seem to accept the obvious...You yourself know that greenhouse gases warm planets, you mentioned Venus...

We have mechanisms that explain how heat can be trapped we don't have mechanisms that explain where all the heat is coming from - all the heat warming the solar system not just earth.

We know where the heat is coming from, it's coming from the sun.

This is similar to what Praxius said above, so let's consider how this works. Assuming that there is no rise in greenhouse gases, the Earth would absorb a certain fraction of the incoming radiation from the sun. The radiation that we receive from the sun is a function of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, of the intensity of the sun, and other things like albedo, just to name a few. So let's look at a graph of the Sun's radiation, at this pdf.

That's the natural ebb and flow of the radiation that we have measured for the last thirty or so years from satellite measurements. Note that it is a pseudo-cyclical phenomena. A histogram of past solar cycles shows the random nature of cycle lengths.


So, if there were no increasing greenhouse gases, no changes in land-use, we should expect the temperature of the Earth to fluctuate somewhat with this cycle. Indeed the Earth does fluctuate with this cycle. It's a part of the natural variation in Earth's climate.

The problem is, that this cycle doesn't explain why the Earth is retaining more radiation now than it was in past cycles. Increasing greenhouse gases and land use changes can explain this, they have explained this.

So, of course the source of heat is the sun, nobody with half a brain would claim otherwise. That's how a greenhouse gas works. It traps heat and prevents it from bouncing back into space. Without our increasing greenhouse gases, that heat wouldn't be trapped, and we wouldn't have a warming climate.

We don't know if all of them are heating up or not; we only know some of them are which means it is probable that they all are.

No, it doesn't. That's the same logical fallacy you keep repeating. If the cause were the same on the three planets this discussion is dealing with, then you could make that assumption.

Your throwing the baby out with the bath water. What your saying is that if you stick your hand in this fire you'll get burned but that doesn't mean the other fire over there will burn you...

That's not at all what I'm saying. What I'm saying is:
1. Earth, Mars, and Jupiter are warming.
2. They all have different mechanisms that produced the warming climate.
3. You're trying to call it one natural cause, which ignores the second point.
4. This 'natural' cause(whatever it is you think is behind this, I suspect the sun) doesn't explain our planets circumstances.
5. Greenhouse gases, and radiative physics have explained it.

Further to point 5, they have actually made successful predictions about things which should happen. Your 'natural' cause, and the army of 'skeptics' have produced no explanation that encompasses more than just the temperature record(which they fail at anyways), nor have they made any predictions which have come true.
 

Walter

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All these moons and planetary bodies are not warming up. Do some reading. You are arguing from complete ignorance.
Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

Kate Ravilious
for National Geographic News

February 28, 2007

Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human-induced—cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory. Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.
In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.
Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun. "The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.
 

Scott Free

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No. The point as Zzarchov and others have said is that on these different planets, the causal relationship with their respective climate change is different. Three different causes on Earth, Mars and Jupiter. The same effect. There is more than one way to warm a planet.



I'm not kidding.



All three conditions aren't the same. That's the whole point that you seem to be missing. Recently many people have died from natural disasters in both Burma and China. Are both of those conditions the same?



I'm suggesting that you don't have a single causal mechanism that explains the effects on Earth, Mars, and Jupiter. There is nothing improbable about what is happening here, except that some people can't seem to accept the obvious...You yourself know that greenhouse gases warm planets, you mentioned Venus...



We know where the heat is coming from, it's coming from the sun.

This is similar to what Praxius said above, so let's consider how this works. Assuming that there is no rise in greenhouse gases, the Earth would absorb a certain fraction of the incoming radiation from the sun. The radiation that we receive from the sun is a function of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, of the intensity of the sun, and other things like albedo, just to name a few. So let's look at a graph of the Sun's radiation, at this pdf.

That's the natural ebb and flow of the radiation that we have measured for the last thirty or so years from satellite measurements. Note that it is a pseudo-cyclical phenomena. A histogram of past solar cycles shows the random nature of cycle lengths.


So, if there were no increasing greenhouse gases, no changes in land-use, we should expect the temperature of the Earth to fluctuate somewhat with this cycle. Indeed the Earth does fluctuate with this cycle. It's a part of the natural variation in Earth's climate.

The problem is, that this cycle doesn't explain why the Earth is retaining more radiation now than it was in past cycles. Increasing greenhouse gases and land use changes can explain this, they have explained this.

So, of course the source of heat is the sun, nobody with half a brain would claim otherwise. That's how a greenhouse gas works. It traps heat and prevents it from bouncing back into space. Without our increasing greenhouse gases, that heat wouldn't be trapped, and we wouldn't have a warming climate.



No, it doesn't. That's the same logical fallacy you keep repeating. If the cause were the same on the three planets this discussion is dealing with, then you could make that assumption.



That's not at all what I'm saying. What I'm saying is:
1. Earth, Mars, and Jupiter are warming.
2. They all have different mechanisms that produced the warming climate.
3. You're trying to call it one natural cause, which ignores the second point.
4. This 'natural' cause(whatever it is you think is behind this, I suspect the sun) doesn't explain our planets circumstances.
5. Greenhouse gases, and radiative physics have explained it.

Further to point 5, they have actually made successful predictions about things which should happen. Your 'natural' cause, and the army of 'skeptics' have produced no explanation that encompasses more than just the temperature record(which they fail at anyways), nor have they made any predictions which have come true.

I don't know how to explain my position any more clearly. To me it seems obvious but apparently it isn't so to you. I think we should just agree, in a civilized manner, to disagree. The future will show the truth of our arguments. I would have thought the 15 year hiatus from GW being predicted now by scientists confirmed my suspicions. I expect when my daughter is my age this debate will still be raging.

Anyway, I'm not some kind of enemy of the earth. If someday there is a clear and concise argument with proper evidence maybe I'll join you on that band wagon. So far I haven't read or seen such an argument. The popular opinion of a crowd is not enough to convince me. I do appreciate your efforts, though however, I think your in error but I realize I could be too - time will tell.
 

Zzarchov

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Thats what Tonnington is saying.

He has read your point, see's what you are saying, pointed out a glaring error and shown you the actual reasons for global warming that are not hype.

Far beyond the Al Gores and TV Pundits and Government and Lobby group mouth pieces, on both sides,

Exist real scientists, with actual facts and reasons you can follow if your actually willing to spend the time to FULLY understand them before rambling off catch phrases like gospel (or heresy)
 

Tonington

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I don't know how to explain my position any more clearly. To me it seems obvious but apparently it isn't so to you. I think we should just agree, in a civilized manner, to disagree. The future will show the truth of our arguments. I would have thought the 15 year hiatus from GW being predicted now by scientists confirmed my suspicions. I expect when my daughter is my age this debate will still be raging.

See, it's things like that which trouble me. One study comes out, which is essentially a confirmation of bias when people begin to brandy it about without even beginning to understand what the study says, or what the study did. If you want to see some of my problems with it, you can go to the "U.S. Senate votes to begin global warming debate" thread that Praxius started. I'll reprint one of the main problems I have with it:

That model as far as I know does not take it into account, rather it focuses on the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic, which is included in global models. But their approach is flawed from the start, though an interesting approach. They use the seas surface temperatures to estimate the MOC, a warm Atlantic means a strong MOC, and a cool Atlantic means a weak MOC*. Here's where they run into problems. If your model has an Atlantic that is too cold, that means the MOC is too weak. So you can nudge temperatures in the model to better 'approximate the MOC conditions. But doing this(heating water) makes it more buoyant, which in turn weakens the MOC, the opposite of what you want your model to do. It's not realistic to use only the sea surface temperatures to approximate the MOC, because you won't get it right. It's no wonder their hindcast couldn't even get the past conditions right. But that didn't stop all the 'skeptics' from saying AHAH! Told you!

* This is their approach, but the overturning of water is more than just dependent on the temperature. That should be a big clue when their method for estimating and adjusting fails.

Anyway, I'm not some kind of enemy of the earth.

I know that. I doubt anybody who thinks as you do are. There's a number of reasons why I think people are looking the other way. I think it's mostly the solution they don't like, not the actual science, though they have tried to argue against it. If you're of a particularly libertarian bent, then you probably don't like the idea of government involvement in changing our behaviours.

That's what truly disappointing. The standard conservative approach to even solving the problem ( a rarity in that population segment) is to let the market sort it out. But the market has for all time now externalized costs whenever the government allows them to. How do you think it's suddenly going to shift around to more expensive business practices? ie. polluters pay.

How are the industry giants going to capitalize further on their infrastructure if we de-carbonize the economy? In a court of law, that would be called motive. Scientists aren't asking for more research dollars, they're asking governments to spend more on efficiency, on renewable energy, of which they have no stake. What are the industry people asking for? Subsidies to clean up their product, delayed action on clean air regulations, and delayed action on mandatory Corporate Average Fuel Economy(to name a few,) which benefits you and I (cleaner air, and cheaper costs of commuting.)

Trust who you will...
 

Scott Free

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There's a number of reasons why I think people are looking the other way. I think it's mostly the solution they don't like, not the actual science, though they have tried to argue against it. If you're of a particularly libertarian bent, then you probably don't like the idea of government involvement in changing our behaviours.

You see. That's where we differ. I know the science is bogus. I have tried to explain this but you seem to want to think you can save the world in the face of obvious fact. While you suspect I'm some kind of libertarian I suspect your some sort of guilt ridden liberal who needs to message his ego by thinking he can make a difference. Stark reality and in particular that of our own existence is a difficult pill to swallow.

Science like anything else man made is prone to mistakes but they are made so much worse if people believe in science like a new religion.

The vast majority of people will always believe what they want to believe. It is our failing as a species; 1 part ape and one part lemming.
 

Tonington

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You see. That's where we differ. I know the science is bogus.

Why don't you tell me what's bogus then, oh soothsayer.:roll: You repeat the talking points well enough, though that doesn't mean you actually know anything. What papers have you read?

I have tried to explain this but you seem to want to think you can save the world in the face of obvious fact.

I'm not trying to save the world, I just have a urge to reply when I read the same tripe printed over and over again without any apparent thought.

While you suspect I'm some kind of libertarian I suspect your some sort of guilt ridden liberal who needs to message his ego by thinking he can make a difference.

Hahah, I'm not guilty about anything, and as far as politics go, I'm in the middle.

Science like anything else man made is prone to mistakes but they are made so much worse if people believe in science like a new religion.

Of course it is. I just don't think you've actually read what the science says. You've probably read some newspaper articles, maybe some online blogs, but I doubt you've gone to primary documents. Yet you're still convinced, still worshiping at the alter of ignorance, as is blatantly apparent when you say things like: three planets all warming, therefore they must be driven by the same force. Elementary school kids can even point out that flaw.