RE. MIKE HARRIS AS CONSERVATIVE LEADER:
I think that this would be a bad idea, at least near-term.
I suspect the real reason why Mike Harris did not run for a third term in Ontario is not because of his "flight over the autumn colours" longing for home reasoning. Rather, the writing was on the wall that he was going to get crucified by the Liberals in the election since he had created too many enemies in his two terms in office, so he let Ernie Eves take the fall. Smart move. Harris may still become PM one day, but not soon.
RE. THE MARTIN / HARPER FOLLIES WITH GOMERY:
Any fair-minded person realizes that Martin wanted to prolong the time from now to the next election so he can try to repair the damage among Quebec voters, and Harper wanted a snap-election because he wanted to capitalize on the outrage over the testimony in the Gomery Inquiry and "strike when the iron was hot". I think Martin would be more than happy to run against Stephen Harper at any time, but he was concerned (and rightfully so) about being routed in Quebec should an election have been called this spring, so that's why he did all he could to avoid having to go to the polls now.
Look, both these guys are looking to attain/keep power, so when the issue of Gomery arises, we must ignore the spin from all parties and focus on what makes sense. Personally, I am on the side of waiting until Gomery issues his final report so that Canadians have a chance to examine not only the evidence but what the point man in this investigation (Gomery) has concluded so they have full information at their disposal before going to the polls.
Frankly, the fact that a spring election did not take place was a blessing in disguise for Harper, since I think he would have been beaten again and his career as leader ended. I think that was his motivation for statements he made this week to the effect that bringing down the government was out of his hands since he needs the support of Liberal backbenchers to pull it off (code for: I changed my mind - I don't want to bring down the government now and lose another election.)
RE. THE ACCURACY OF POLLS:
I think that polls in general are pretty accurate. In the last election, polls in the final stretch of the race showed that Martin gained on then surpassed Harper, exactly what was happening in the populace and demonstrated in the election results. If polls weren't indicative of what the people were feeling at the time, parties wouldn't change their strategies (for example, on election timing) based on polls. Now polls do change, but that simply reflects a change in the electorate, not inaccuracy in the polls themselves.
