Conservative minority or majority.

[Trex]

That is the question.
And it really is the only realistic question that relates to the current Federal election.

There is a website called
ThreeHundredEight.com

For anyone interested in polling or any political junkies this is the website to go to.
The site has no political bias at all.
They simply analyse the polls.
All the polls, every day.
You can click on the various charts and find out exactly how every single Federal riding in Canada is doing on a day by day basis.
The analysts at the site have instant access to all the public polls ( and most likely access to several of the internal or private polls).

Obviously you can ignore polling but that simply means you ignore the only available hard data on the leadership race.
All the news agencies incuding CBC both use and quote threehundredeight.com data.

Today the Cons have 152 out of 308 seats acording to all existing polls.
I believe there are three vacant seats and two independents.
One of the independents is Helena Guergis and she has stated she will consistantly vote Conservative if re-elected.
The Conservatives need 155 seats for a majority.
Looks very, very close to a potential majority government to me.

It is well known that there are three potential "transition points" in a Federal election.
The first 48 hour of the election campaign, the 12 hours after the leadership debates and the last 48 hours of the election campaign.
We are well past the first point.

It will be very interesting to see how both Harpo and Count Igula do on the debates.
And will the Rabid Hampster (May) get to join the scrum?

My bet is Harper and the Con's will either get a majority or be within one or two seats of a majority.
If the Cons are within one or two seats of a majority my guess is the will "buy" a couple of floorcrossers and take the majority that way.
Just my opinion.
Trex

 

[Cobalt_Kid]

I'm going with a Liberal/NDP coalition when they get enough seats to form a government and a revolution in Canada if Harper tries to shut down Parliament again because he confuses being elected to the House with being elected to the PMO.

 

[Trex]

I'm going with a Liberal/NDP coalition when they get enough seats to form a government and a revolution in Canada if Harper tries to shut down Parliament again because he confuses being elected to the House with being elected to the PMO.

The coalition between the NDP and the Libs only works if either one or the other of them gets enough seats that they can form a majority WITHOUT the Bloq(BQ) joining the coalition.
If the Cons get another minority and an NDP and Lib coalition has a majority then the coalition is in power like a shot, Harper would have no chance.
The majority of Canadians would probabaly support it, the Govenor General would almost certainly support it and Canadian law and precidence would support it.

However a coalition with the BQ (sepreratists) is probably impossible,Harper would refuse to accept it, the GG would probably deny it (purely because the sepratists could not be allowed to govern the country) and the majority of Canadians would probably not be in favour of it.
Thus the GG could and probably send us right back to another election for a redo.

Polling data shows that the NDP and the Liberals at the moment have absolutely no chance of getting enough seats to form a majority coalition.

Maybe further down the election road things will swing there way but as it stands right now they have no chance.
Trex

 

[Cobalt_Kid]

The coalition between the NDP and the Libs only works if either one or the other of them gets enough seats that they can form a majority WITHOUT the Bloq(BQ) joining the coalition.
If the Cons get another minority and an NDP and Lib coalition has a majority then the coalition is in power like a shot, Harper would have no chance.
The majority of Canadians would probabaly support it, the Govenor General would almost certainly support it and Canadian law and precidence would support it.

However a coalition with the BQ (sepreratists) is probably impossible,Harper would refuse to accept it, the GG would probably deny it (purely because the sepratists could not be allowed to govern the country) and the majority of Canadians would probably not be in favour of it.
Thus the GG could and probably send us right back to another election for a redo.

Polling data shows that the NDP and the Liberals at the moment have absolutely no chance of getting enough seats to form a majority coalition.

Maybe further down the election road things will swing there way but as it stands right now they have no chance.
Trex

Then let's go Liberals/NDP and let's end this useless conservative fantasyland we've been stuck in for five years.

The polls also show a high number of undecided voters, I'm betting I'm not alone in my lack of patience with the conservatives.

 

[mentalfloss]

Just read the poll results in The Sun - the conservative haven magazine of whatever - and even the sheep hivemind voted overwhelmingly that they would be "very scared" if Harper won a majority, lol

 

[petros]

That is odd. Why would they feel that way?

 

[mentalfloss]

Maybe they're conservative, but don't support heir Harper, I dunno..

 

[grumpydigger]

Though I believe, We're going to have Another conservative minority. And the conservative party are going to start sharpening their knives And finding another leader that can get majority power.

Right now I believe, the best thing for Canada Would be A Liberal minority .In order to stifle,The jet fighters and the new mega-prisons And set priorities More toward The people of Canada.

The Conservatives negative election campaign partially worked years ago, but is really hurting him this time.

 

[mentalfloss]

The Conservatives negative election campaign partially worked years ago, but is really hurting him this time.

Yea, why are conservatives always about fighting? Where's the love?

 

[Machjo]

However a coalition with the BQ (sepreratists) is probably impossible,Harper would refuse to accept it, the GG would probably deny it (purely because the sepratists could not be allowed to govern the country) and the majority of Canadians would probably not be in favour of it.
Thus the GG could and probably send us right back to another election for a redo.

[/QUOTE]

I don't think you understand the non-partisan nature of the GG. Supposing a majority coalition should be formed with teh Bloc, the GG likely would accept it as he would any other majority coalition.

That being said, for purely political reasons, I doubt the Liberals would touch the Bloc with a ten foot poll as it would destroy the Liberals in the following election. As for the Cons, it goes without saying. The Greens and the NDP would likely be open to a coalition with the Bloc which, honestly doesn't really bother me personally, though again that's precisely why they'll end up with few seats in the House.

So yes, the Bloc is out of the question, but not because of the GG.

 

[SLM]

If I had to "call it" right now, then I'd say Tory minority. Maybe, possibly, very slim majority (which I know, doesn't really matter, a majority is a majority). Anything can happen though, so who knows really.

 

[JLM]

If I had to "call it" right now, then I'd say Tory minority. Maybe, possibly, very slim majority (which I know, doesn't really matter, a majority is a majority). Anything can happen though, so who knows really.

A minority might be better, even with Harper's political skills I'm still a little leary of his "social skills" :smile:

 

[SLM]

A minority might be better, even with Harper's political skills I'm still a little leary of his "social skills" :smile:

Yeah, I've always kind of thought he seemed to be his own worse enemy in that regard too. Social skills, or lack thereof, do not seem to be his strong suit.

 

[Trex]

I don't think you understand the non-partisan nature of the GG. Supposing a majority coalition should be formed with teh Bloc, the GG likely would accept it as he would any other majority coalition.

That being said, for purely political reasons, I doubt the Liberals would touch the Bloc with a ten foot poll as it would destroy the Liberals in the following election. As for the Cons, it goes without saying. The Greens and the NDP would likely be open to a coalition with the Bloc which, honestly doesn't really bother me personally, though again that's precisely why they'll end up with few seats in the House.

So yes, the Bloc is out of the question, but not because of the GG.[/QUOTE]
Actually I do understand the role of the GG.

And still at the end of the day I agree with what your saying.
There are indeed several different alternatives to a Harper minority.
I just do not believe it's possible to form a Lib, NDP and BQ coalition.
And as impartial as the GG is( and this new one is a seriously smart, highly expierenced person) I really dont think he would look kindly on a
coalition with the BQ having a role in the Confederation of Canada.
All the other bets are open.

Yeah, I've always kind of thought he seemed to be his own worse enemy in that regard too. Social skills, or lack thereof, do not seem to be his strong suit.

Lets be realistic.
Everyone in Canada knows the guy is a dick.
A frigid, vindictive, control freak of a dick.
If anyone, somehow does not know that, wake up and smell the coffee for god's sake.

But is he an effecient and effective PM?
Is he the best of a somewhat bad bunch?
Does he get the job done?
If not him, who?

It's not a popularity contest.
It's a tough job.
Harper himself said "historically nice guys never last as a PM"
And it's true.

 

[talloola]

I would never vote liberal, i'm not going to be part of that bunch of crooks running
our country again, we got rid of them, and they should stay 'rid of'.

I will vote for harper, and don't care about his social skills, he is a decent person,
who represents us well around the world, speaks clearly, and looks normal. lol

I am a NDP voter all my life, until recently, just keep the liberals out.
I hope harper gets a 'small' majority.

 

[JLM]

I don't think you understand the non-partisan nature of the GG. Supposing a majority coalition should be formed with teh Bloc, the GG likely would accept it as he would any other majority coalition.

That being said, for purely political reasons, I doubt the Liberals would touch the Bloc with a ten foot poll as it would destroy the Liberals in the following election. As for the Cons, it goes without saying. The Greens and the NDP would likely be open to a coalition with the Bloc which, honestly doesn't really bother me personally, though again that's precisely why they'll end up with few seats in the House.

So yes, the Bloc is out of the question, but not because of the GG.

Actually I do understand the role of the GG.

And still at the end of the day I agree with what your saying.
There are indeed several different alternatives to a Harper minority.
I just do not believe it's possible to form a Lib, NDP and BQ coalition.
And as impartial as the GG is( and this new one is a seriously smart, highly expierenced person) I really dont think he would look kindly on a
coalition with the BQ having a role in the Confederation of Canada.
All the other bets are open.



Lets be realistic.
Everyone in Canada knows the guy is a dick.
A frigid, vindictive, control freak of a dick.
If anyone, somehow does not know that, wake up and smell the coffee for god's sake.

But is he an effecient and effective PM?
Is he the best of a somewhat bad bunch?
Does he get the job done?
If not him, who?

It's not a popularity contest.
It's a tough job.
Harper himself said "historically nice guys never last as a PM"
And it's true.[/QUOTE]

Yep, it would be pretty hard to endorse a coalition when a third of it is dedicated to breaking up the country. :smile:

I would never vote liberal, i'm not going to be part of that bunch of crooks running
our country again, we got rid of them, and they should stay 'rid of'.

I will vote for harper, and don't care about his social skills, he is a decent person,
who represents us well around the world, speaks clearly, and looks normal. lol

I am a NDP voter all my life, until recently, just keep the liberals out.
I hope harper gets a 'small' majority.

Yep, I guess I'll hold my nose and vote Conservative unless something earth shattering happens between now and then. About the only possibility I can see otherwise is Iggy dropping dead and Gordon Gibson taking his place. :lol:

 

[Cobalt_Kid]

I would never vote liberal, i'm not going to be part of that bunch of crooks running
our country again, we got rid of them, and they should stay 'rid of'.

I will vote for harper, and don't care about his social skills, he is a decent person,
who represents us well around the world, speaks clearly, and looks normal. lol

I am a NDP voter all my life, until recently, just keep the liberals out.
I hope harper gets a 'small' majority.

What about Harper is decent?

He's shown nothing but contempt for us through repeatedly attacking our Parliamentary system, overseas he unquestioningly supports governments like in Columbia that have been directly implicated in murdering thousands of their own citizens. On the climate change front despite the overwhelming evidence presented by objective science he refuses to acknowledge what is almost certainly the biggest challenge our nation and the world has ever faced all to protect an industry he has very close personal ties to and on and on.

Canadas usually high approval in other countries has slipped seriously under his control of the nation.

Steven Harper is possibly one of the most immoral PMs we've ever had.

 

[TenPenny]

Steven Harper is possibly one of the most immoral PMs we've ever had.

Yeah, but he smiles and claims to be a Christian, so that makes it all better.

 

[Mowich]

If I had to "call it" right now, then I'd say Tory minority. Maybe, possibly, very slim majority (which I know, doesn't really matter, a majority is a majority). Anything can happen though, so who knows really.

Actually a 'small majority' can matter, SLM. The larger the majority the better the chances of holding onto one should any MPs decide to jump ship or simply sit as an independent, as has happened. As I saw absolutely no reason for this stupid costly election in the first place, and felt we were being governed quite nicely under a minority Conservative gov, were we to end up with another one it would be fine with me - providing it is a Conservative minority.

 

[Cobalt_Kid]

Yeah, but he smiles and claims to be a Christian, so that makes it all better.

Right I forgot.

Hey if it worked for Swaggert, Baker and all the other religi-crits then why not Harper.