Chicken Little Demands Apology Sky Falling
- Thread starter darkbeaver
- Start date
We will see expansion in either the third or the forth quarter. We do not have a depression.
A long, slow recovery or fall back into recession is very probable. However, there is no depression.
A long, slow recovery or fall back into recession is very probable. However, there is no depression.
What will expand, retail, manufacturing, GDP what? Debt will expand, commercial forclosure will expand, the deficit will expand, TWOT will expand, unemployment will expand, foodstamps will expand, hunger war and disease will expand but there will be no expanding recovery for at least a decade and then it will be as a Chinese sweat colony and we are in a depression. I have autographed pieces of the sky for sale on e-bay right now. We may not even live to see the forth quarter. You are a lot crazier than I am, I didn't think it possible. What's it like working the bar on the Titanic Toro?
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Inventories became too low. I heard of lumber yards without a single log. Some ports in Asia did zero business some days. Trade financing completely dried up. Some companies could not tap the commercial paper markets.
All of these problems are dissipating.
That does not mean we are out of the woods. The economy is likely to be choppy, and I think there is a significant probability we could fall back into recession in 2010 or 2011.
But that is not a depression.
I also have little doubt that the actions of the government will create enormous secondary and tertiary effects down the road.
All of these problems are dissipating.
That does not mean we are out of the woods. The economy is likely to be choppy, and I think there is a significant probability we could fall back into recession in 2010 or 2011.
But that is not a depression.
I also have little doubt that the actions of the government will create enormous secondary and tertiary effects down the road.
Four more banks fail, with 2009 tally now at 81
Guaranty Bank of Texas joins list of biggest U.S. bank failures of all time
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on Friday announced four more bank failures, including a Texas bank with total assets of about $13 billion, pushing this year's tally up to 81.
S&P 500 Over Priced: With 97% of Companies Reporting Q2 Earnings the PE Ratio is Now at 129. The Most Over Hyped Market Rally Ever.
There is probably no better indicator of market volatility than the current price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500. The market volatility is spectacular and we are seeing more gyrations in this recession than we did during the Great Depression. Since March when the S&P 500 touched the 666 mark, the rally has boosted the index by 54 percent. Was this caused by stunning second quarter earnings? Absolutely not. With nearly 97 percent of all companies now reporting earnings for the second quarter, the S&P 500 PE ratio sits at 129. This is by far the most over hyped rally in the world.
First, let us look at this insanity on a chart:
Source: Chart of the Day
Maybe you're right Toro, you certainly know more than I do about it but it is very hard for me to have much confidence in a sound economy or any recovery at all in the next decade. I just do not see what it could possibly be built on. Give me some hope.
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Jan 24 08:21
Record Bank Profits - American Dream Foreclosed
A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute confirms this picture, noting that it usually takes six to seven years to squeeze the debt out of a big bubble. During the first several years, gross domestic product shrinks. "At this writing, the deleveraging process has barely begun," warns McKinsey. "The bursting of the great global credit bubble is not over yet." In short, all of us will be hurting for years because Washington is refusing to make the banks eat the debt bubble they created. Instead, the bailed-out banks are walking away with record profits and fat bonuses.
Webmaster's Commentary:
Socialism: Corporate profit and loss are socialized across society.
Fascism: Corporate profits are kept private but corporate losses are socialized across society.
Which system do you think we are living under?
Jan 24 08:21
Record Bank Profits - American Dream Foreclosed
A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute confirms this picture, noting that it usually takes six to seven years to squeeze the debt out of a big bubble. During the first several years, gross domestic product shrinks. "At this writing, the deleveraging process has barely begun," warns McKinsey. "The bursting of the great global credit bubble is not over yet." In short, all of us will be hurting for years because Washington is refusing to make the banks eat the debt bubble they created. Instead, the bailed-out banks are walking away with record profits and fat bonuses.
Webmaster's Commentary:
Socialism: Corporate profit and loss are socialized across society.
Fascism: Corporate profits are kept private but corporate losses are socialized across society.
Which system do you think we are living under?
GOLD PRICE FIXING BOMBSHELL
By Pat Shannan
William Murphy, chairman of Gold Anti- Trust Action (GATA), shocked the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by revealing the name and position of a whistle blower who had warned the CFTC Enforcement Division of market manipulation by JPMorgan Chase in advance of it happening and had witnessed Morgan traders boasting of their exploits.
The March 25 meeting was a “sham,” filled with deception and half-truths and with the “liars and thieves behaving like cornered rats,” according to several of those present. In what might have been a harbinger of things to come, CFTC announced a week before the hearing that they had had a fire in the room where its gold and silver records are held. No further information as to what kind of damage occurred was released.
Then during the six-hour hearing, the only time the live video feed went down was from one minute before Bill Murphy spoke until one minute afterward. Next, when he was finally asked a question by the panel, the audio mysteriously went out until right at the end of his answer.
When asked for some hard proof of the manipulation, Murphy released a well-guarded bombshell from a whistleblower who had been sending emails to the CFTC explaining how JPMorgan traders were rigging the gold market and then bragging about it. The whistleblower, a London metals trader named Andrew Maguire, had some quite damning evidence against the cartel, but the CFTC panel was visibly reluctant to learn any more and asked nothing else about it.
GOLD PRICE FIXING 217
The March 25 meeting was a “sham,” filled with deception and half-truths and with the “liars and thieves behaving like cornered rats,” according to several of those present. In what might have been a harbinger of things to come, CFTC announced a week before the hearing that they had had a fire in the room where its gold and silver records are held. No further information as to what kind of damage occurred was released.
Then during the six-hour hearing, the only time the live video feed went down was from one minute before Bill Murphy spoke until one minute afterward. Next, when he was finally asked a question by the panel, the audio mysteriously went out until right at the end of his answer.
When asked for some hard proof of the manipulation, Murphy released a well-guarded bombshell from a whistleblower who had been sending emails to the CFTC explaining how JPMorgan traders were rigging the gold market and then bragging about it. The whistleblower, a London metals trader named Andrew Maguire, had some quite damning evidence against the cartel, but the CFTC panel was visibly reluctant to learn any more and asked nothing else about it.
GOLD PRICE FIXING 217
Of course I actually own a gold producing chicken who lives in a sky proof coop, the rest of you have certificates, they don't weigh much. Please panic in an orderly manner toward the exits marked duped investors.
As much as it pains to side with you and even provide support, I can't help it...
GOLD PRICE FIXING BOMBSHELL
By Pat ShannanWilliam Murphy, chairman of Gold Anti- Trust Action (GATA), shocked the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by revealing the name and position of a whistle blower who had warned the CFTC Enforcement Division of market manipulation by JPMorgan Chase in advance of it happening and had witnessed Morgan traders boasting of their exploits.
The March 25 meeting was a “sham,” filled with deception and half-truths and with the “liars and thieves behaving like cornered rats,” according to several of those present. In what might have been a harbinger of things to come, CFTC announced a week before the hearing that they had had a fire in the room where its gold and silver records are held. No further information as to what kind of damage occurred was released.
Then during the six-hour hearing, the only time the live video feed went down was from one minute before Bill Murphy spoke until one minute afterward. Next, when he was finally asked a question by the panel, the audio mysteriously went out until right at the end of his answer.
When asked for some hard proof of the manipulation, Murphy released a well-guarded bombshell from a whistleblower who had been sending emails to the CFTC explaining how JPMorgan traders were rigging the gold market and then bragging about it. The whistleblower, a London metals trader named Andrew Maguire, had some quite damning evidence against the cartel, but the CFTC panel was visibly reluctant to learn any more and asked nothing else about it.
GOLD PRICE FIXING 217
This is nothing new and it certainly doesn't begin at the trading level. Mining companies themselves will slow production to increase demand on the market. Going so far as to shotcrete over substantial ore bodies, as to not flood the market and thus lower prices.
This is also true in the diamond industry and need not look much further then De Boers acquisition of Russia's stockpile of diamonds, after the fall of the Iron Curtain. As to remain in control of the diamond market, which of course is a grossly inflated vanity market.
Like you missed the point eh yknow, like it isn't that this is novel eh yknow, eh yknow it's the scope and the volume eh, like yknow I know you do know eh, so stop being thick ya big prick like yer givin me a brain ache yknow.:smile:
The US Economy is Faltering. An Inflationary Depression is in Progress
By Bob Chapman
Global Research, October 9, 2010
In spite of the disinformation, misdirection and outright propaganda the economy is faltering without the addition of stimulus and quantitative easing. The benefits of inventory accumulation over the past 17 months, which accounted for 60% of the strength in the economy is at an end. We either get more stimulus either governmental or from the privately owned Fed or growth is going to continue to drop. We are looking at indexes that for the most part are at or near their lows. We see short reactive rallies but certainly nothing that leaves us to believe that any kind of a recovery is at hand. The longer we have to wait for Congress and the Fed to act, the more difficult it will be to regain upside momentum. It could be the plan is to simply go sideways for the next two years. The problem with that is that it will cost $5 trillion to accomplish. Production is starting to fall with the exception of a temporary increase in automotive manufacturing. Inventory build is retracting and both the absence of further build, and production should herald a 2-year low by yearend. The administration had other priorities and they missed the boat on getting support. The Fed as usual was too far behind the curve. Consequently we are actually looking at the distinct possibility of economic crisis and higher unemployment soon. Will the administration be able to get a lame duck Congress to approve $500 billion in spending? We won’t know until we get there and that is only two months away. The Fed is obviously waiting until the election is over before they open the floodgates of QE2. Will it be by $1.5 trillion? We’ll have to wait and see. If they do lend that sterilized float it will be monetized and it will hit higher inflation very quickly. Will business spend the $3 trillion they have on hand? They’ll certainly spend some of it, but how much no one knows. Will our government continue to give us obviously bogus numbers? They probably will, but most professionals have finally caught on to their 3-card Monte game. Wait until the real ISM figures show up for September, after August’s blatantly bogus figures. All the recent statistics are at lows not seen for 1-1/2 years, including the ATA’s truck tonnage index that fell 2.8%. If there is a recovery the public doesn’t think so. All indications are that buyers are depressed.
The public realizes an inflationary depression is in progress and the QE1 policy only took the economy sideways for 18 months at the cost of the Fed tripling its balance sheet. As a result the public does not think the Fed will be anymore successful in QE2, than they were in QE1. Future expectations are that 2/3’s of consumers believe that economic conditions will be bad and only 25% believe they will be good. We know the public doesn’t understand what is happening, but we also can see that whatever leadership is providing is bad and it isn’t working.
China and Japan look to be the leaders in the new currency wars. As a result the Fed on Tuesday dumped a larger than expected $5.19 billion of POMO into the market and the Dow obediently rose 193 points. This is how the Fed has been doing QE2 since June and in the process elevating the market. For four months the economy has done little. It is in a slow fade. This is part of the Illuminist program to keep the more pliable Democrats in office and to avoid having to pay the cost of paying off new congressional members. The correlation between a strong stock market and political affinity is strong. It makes people forget when their wealth is increasing. The Fed, Treasury, administration, House and Senate are in a preservation mode. This could very well be your October surprise, a Dow at 11,700 or perhaps even at 14,200 – who knows. If we are correct, and we usually are, this could be a blatant attempt to keep incumbents in office to defy our demand, and to deny Republicans a majority in both houses and congress. The stakes are high for the elitists and their ilk for the further concentration of wealth and power. If these insiders lose, the economy could collapse.
As a result of this commentary and what the Fed is doing today we hark back to 1931 when the Fed and the NY Fed both increased credit and cut interest rates furiously, as they have done recently, until gold began to rise globally in the fall of 1931.
Later in 1936, under the Smoot-Hawley Bill, they were able to monetize debt, as they are currently doing until the bond market reversed in 1936. That is what we have in our current future.
Incidentally, while the depression scam was being done in the US in the 1930s, these elitists were trying to put in power a fascist government in America, similar to that in Germany. These are the same people who were instrumental in financing the Third Reich. This is what history is all about, a repetition of the machinations of power and subjection.
We now have an economy where families shop when welfare or food stamps arrive, as consumers spend less. We wonder what will happen when the welfare stops? Empty bellies make for revolutionary times, as monetary policy gets easier and easier. Remember, there is a limit to how long rates can fall. Personal disposable income rose 0.5%, but 70% of that was a huge retroactive emergency payment of jobless insurance checks, which boasted income 1.6%, or by $35 billion. Thus, consumer spending would have been up 0.1%, not 0.4%. That is a big difference that government and Wall Street conveniently overlooked. This means there is no recovery in sight. It is very disconcerting when government accounts for 20% of disposable income. That means 50% of the recovery since 2009 came via stimulus. In August alone 70% of growth in income came from government. Even auto sales gains in September were overstated due to Labor Day. Sales should be 50% higher due to low financing costs and the same is true with housing, but that is not happening. That means household debt is still too onerous to allow increased spending. Only 1/3rd of consumer de-leveraging has taken place. There is still at least $6 trillion to go. That is why Goldman’s chief economist said things are bad, very bad. In the midst of all this FICO scores continue to fall leaving only 47% of the consumers with decent credit scores. The bottom line is this is all about government intervention and stimulus. The bottom line is if QE2 and government stimulus doesn’t occur the economy will collapse.
We do not see a bounce and support for the dollar on the USDX until it enters the 74 to 75 zone. We predicted this four months ago. The upward move on the euro and the other five currencies will run out of steam soon as economic contraction begins anew. The benefits of a cheap euro are over for now. Do not forget the eurozone still has plenty of problems, just as bad as those in the UK and US.
The beggar-thy-neighbor currency war continues unabated. The US subtly pushes QE2 via the repo market, as Japan and others lower their interest rates. Appreciation is a bad word when it comes to currencies. Whether you knew it or not currency wars are really trade wars. We are already seeing trade barriers on Chinese goods by the US and China has retaliated. As time goes on this will expand and official barriers will be erected. In addition, the Fed chairman said recently that he supports further expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and that means the money supply is about to be expanded. The only way to stop this subtle trade war is to officially declare tariffs, which includes a calculation on currency values.
As a result of this, gold and silver hit new highs each day against all currencies. As you can see in the end gold and silver are the only real money. The rest are backed by empty promises.
Quantitative easing does not add to household wealth; it causes inflation and higher prices, as you are currently seeing.
Due to current policies that are focused on bailing out elitist corporations resurrection of employment is left in the dust. Even Fed member banks see a ½% increase in unemployment over the next eight months. We see a 1% increase to 23-5/8%, a new high. This problem is simply not being addressed at all.
DB -> Next Week Be sure to join us for DB's Tips For Previously unthought of Hidden Meals when we will share recipes for old leather boots and wood as well as how to broil Bankers Economists and Investment Councilors using expensive furniture for fuel.
By Bob Chapman
Global Research, October 9, 2010
In spite of the disinformation, misdirection and outright propaganda the economy is faltering without the addition of stimulus and quantitative easing. The benefits of inventory accumulation over the past 17 months, which accounted for 60% of the strength in the economy is at an end. We either get more stimulus either governmental or from the privately owned Fed or growth is going to continue to drop. We are looking at indexes that for the most part are at or near their lows. We see short reactive rallies but certainly nothing that leaves us to believe that any kind of a recovery is at hand. The longer we have to wait for Congress and the Fed to act, the more difficult it will be to regain upside momentum. It could be the plan is to simply go sideways for the next two years. The problem with that is that it will cost $5 trillion to accomplish. Production is starting to fall with the exception of a temporary increase in automotive manufacturing. Inventory build is retracting and both the absence of further build, and production should herald a 2-year low by yearend. The administration had other priorities and they missed the boat on getting support. The Fed as usual was too far behind the curve. Consequently we are actually looking at the distinct possibility of economic crisis and higher unemployment soon. Will the administration be able to get a lame duck Congress to approve $500 billion in spending? We won’t know until we get there and that is only two months away. The Fed is obviously waiting until the election is over before they open the floodgates of QE2. Will it be by $1.5 trillion? We’ll have to wait and see. If they do lend that sterilized float it will be monetized and it will hit higher inflation very quickly. Will business spend the $3 trillion they have on hand? They’ll certainly spend some of it, but how much no one knows. Will our government continue to give us obviously bogus numbers? They probably will, but most professionals have finally caught on to their 3-card Monte game. Wait until the real ISM figures show up for September, after August’s blatantly bogus figures. All the recent statistics are at lows not seen for 1-1/2 years, including the ATA’s truck tonnage index that fell 2.8%. If there is a recovery the public doesn’t think so. All indications are that buyers are depressed.
The public realizes an inflationary depression is in progress and the QE1 policy only took the economy sideways for 18 months at the cost of the Fed tripling its balance sheet. As a result the public does not think the Fed will be anymore successful in QE2, than they were in QE1. Future expectations are that 2/3’s of consumers believe that economic conditions will be bad and only 25% believe they will be good. We know the public doesn’t understand what is happening, but we also can see that whatever leadership is providing is bad and it isn’t working.
China and Japan look to be the leaders in the new currency wars. As a result the Fed on Tuesday dumped a larger than expected $5.19 billion of POMO into the market and the Dow obediently rose 193 points. This is how the Fed has been doing QE2 since June and in the process elevating the market. For four months the economy has done little. It is in a slow fade. This is part of the Illuminist program to keep the more pliable Democrats in office and to avoid having to pay the cost of paying off new congressional members. The correlation between a strong stock market and political affinity is strong. It makes people forget when their wealth is increasing. The Fed, Treasury, administration, House and Senate are in a preservation mode. This could very well be your October surprise, a Dow at 11,700 or perhaps even at 14,200 – who knows. If we are correct, and we usually are, this could be a blatant attempt to keep incumbents in office to defy our demand, and to deny Republicans a majority in both houses and congress. The stakes are high for the elitists and their ilk for the further concentration of wealth and power. If these insiders lose, the economy could collapse.
As a result of this commentary and what the Fed is doing today we hark back to 1931 when the Fed and the NY Fed both increased credit and cut interest rates furiously, as they have done recently, until gold began to rise globally in the fall of 1931.
Later in 1936, under the Smoot-Hawley Bill, they were able to monetize debt, as they are currently doing until the bond market reversed in 1936. That is what we have in our current future.
Incidentally, while the depression scam was being done in the US in the 1930s, these elitists were trying to put in power a fascist government in America, similar to that in Germany. These are the same people who were instrumental in financing the Third Reich. This is what history is all about, a repetition of the machinations of power and subjection.
We now have an economy where families shop when welfare or food stamps arrive, as consumers spend less. We wonder what will happen when the welfare stops? Empty bellies make for revolutionary times, as monetary policy gets easier and easier. Remember, there is a limit to how long rates can fall. Personal disposable income rose 0.5%, but 70% of that was a huge retroactive emergency payment of jobless insurance checks, which boasted income 1.6%, or by $35 billion. Thus, consumer spending would have been up 0.1%, not 0.4%. That is a big difference that government and Wall Street conveniently overlooked. This means there is no recovery in sight. It is very disconcerting when government accounts for 20% of disposable income. That means 50% of the recovery since 2009 came via stimulus. In August alone 70% of growth in income came from government. Even auto sales gains in September were overstated due to Labor Day. Sales should be 50% higher due to low financing costs and the same is true with housing, but that is not happening. That means household debt is still too onerous to allow increased spending. Only 1/3rd of consumer de-leveraging has taken place. There is still at least $6 trillion to go. That is why Goldman’s chief economist said things are bad, very bad. In the midst of all this FICO scores continue to fall leaving only 47% of the consumers with decent credit scores. The bottom line is this is all about government intervention and stimulus. The bottom line is if QE2 and government stimulus doesn’t occur the economy will collapse.
We do not see a bounce and support for the dollar on the USDX until it enters the 74 to 75 zone. We predicted this four months ago. The upward move on the euro and the other five currencies will run out of steam soon as economic contraction begins anew. The benefits of a cheap euro are over for now. Do not forget the eurozone still has plenty of problems, just as bad as those in the UK and US.
The beggar-thy-neighbor currency war continues unabated. The US subtly pushes QE2 via the repo market, as Japan and others lower their interest rates. Appreciation is a bad word when it comes to currencies. Whether you knew it or not currency wars are really trade wars. We are already seeing trade barriers on Chinese goods by the US and China has retaliated. As time goes on this will expand and official barriers will be erected. In addition, the Fed chairman said recently that he supports further expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and that means the money supply is about to be expanded. The only way to stop this subtle trade war is to officially declare tariffs, which includes a calculation on currency values.
As a result of this, gold and silver hit new highs each day against all currencies. As you can see in the end gold and silver are the only real money. The rest are backed by empty promises.
Quantitative easing does not add to household wealth; it causes inflation and higher prices, as you are currently seeing.
Due to current policies that are focused on bailing out elitist corporations resurrection of employment is left in the dust. Even Fed member banks see a ½% increase in unemployment over the next eight months. We see a 1% increase to 23-5/8%, a new high. This problem is simply not being addressed at all.
DB -> Next Week Be sure to join us for DB's Tips For Previously unthought of Hidden Meals when we will share recipes for old leather boots and wood as well as how to broil Bankers Economists and Investment Councilors using expensive furniture for fuel.
What is Chapman talking about, that is the best of both worlds. (little oxymoron in his statement) 
Let us take a little look back at the dirty thirties, to see where
we are. In 1929, things went the way they did a couple of years
ago. After that, a slight rise, until 1931 or there abouts, and then
down, and it bounced around until 1933 when the real trouble
started. I hope its not a repeat now but there is a lot of trouble
ahead.
most people don't talk about the derivatives that are still out there
and the amount of toxic debt is staggering still. It is why they did
prop up financial institutions and GM. GM, through Di tech.com,
which is owned by GMAC, were heavily into the real estate debt.
The derivative mess was well covered up but it could still spell
a disaster the like we have never seen.
As I understand it, the leveraged funds were not insured but they
are out there where companies can claim and demand their
money still. That would create a financial collapse.
If the book Game Over is right for example, it estimated there was
something like 960 trillion in uncovered debt. Yes you see the
figure right. Can you imagine what would have happened if the
governments didn't prop up some of these irresponsible people?
I had the book at one time but I lent it to a friend.
I still think the signs are there for a financial collapse if we are not
careful. 2008 is the tip of the iceberg. Why do you think the
created a G20, it is about financial containment, not just about
economic structure. I will not buy a major item that I cannot pay for
with cash. This farm runs on cash, debt of any kind puts your
long term future at severe risk right now. Personally I think we will
not see light at the end of the tunnel until at least 2017 or 18.
But then that is a guess like any other guess.
we are. In 1929, things went the way they did a couple of years
ago. After that, a slight rise, until 1931 or there abouts, and then
down, and it bounced around until 1933 when the real trouble
started. I hope its not a repeat now but there is a lot of trouble
ahead.
most people don't talk about the derivatives that are still out there
and the amount of toxic debt is staggering still. It is why they did
prop up financial institutions and GM. GM, through Di tech.com,
which is owned by GMAC, were heavily into the real estate debt.
The derivative mess was well covered up but it could still spell
a disaster the like we have never seen.
As I understand it, the leveraged funds were not insured but they
are out there where companies can claim and demand their
money still. That would create a financial collapse.
If the book Game Over is right for example, it estimated there was
something like 960 trillion in uncovered debt. Yes you see the
figure right. Can you imagine what would have happened if the
governments didn't prop up some of these irresponsible people?
I had the book at one time but I lent it to a friend.
I still think the signs are there for a financial collapse if we are not
careful. 2008 is the tip of the iceberg. Why do you think the
created a G20, it is about financial containment, not just about
economic structure. I will not buy a major item that I cannot pay for
with cash. This farm runs on cash, debt of any kind puts your
long term future at severe risk right now. Personally I think we will
not see light at the end of the tunnel until at least 2017 or 18.
But then that is a guess like any other guess.