Canada’s Economy Trying To Dig Out From Commodities Hole
It is unlikely that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen would have postponed an interest rate hike just based on the direct China-U.S. trade relationship. But China trades extensively with Mexico, and particularly with resource-rich Canada.
And if our neighbors’ economies are hurting, the U.S. will be affected. Mexico accounts for 15% of U.S. exports and Canada accounts for nearly 20%.
As Yellen noted during the press conference following the Fed’s September meeting, Canada is “an important trading partner of ours that has been negatively affected by declining commodity prices, declining energy prices.”
Woe Is Canada
In fact, Canada is in its first recession since 2008. In the first quarter of 2015, the economy shrank 0.8%. The second-quarter gross domestic product shrank by 0.5%. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates twice this year in an effort to stimulate the economy. Canada’s key rate now stands at 0.5%.
But that only accelerated the downward move of the Canadian dollar. Nicknamed the loonie, it’s down 14% so far this year. More importantly, the loonie is now at an 11-year low versus the U.S. dollar. Its travails can easily be seen by a glance at the performance of the CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust ETF (NYSEArca: FXC).
And thanks to the continuing drop in commodity prices, Canada’s economy is still sputtering. That’s because energy and mining make up about 17% of the country’s economy.
One needs to look no further than the oil-rich province of Alberta. It is projecting an all-time high budget deficit of CA$5.9 billion. That could grow to CA$6.5 billion if oil prices remain low.
Alberta is emblematic of Canada’s dilemma – oil is its largest export. In March, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz described the oil price as “atrocious.” With prices even lower, I wonder what adjective he would use now.
http://etfdailynews.com/2015/10/08/canadas-economy-trying-to-dig-out-from-commodities-hole/
It is unlikely that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen would have postponed an interest rate hike just based on the direct China-U.S. trade relationship. But China trades extensively with Mexico, and particularly with resource-rich Canada.
And if our neighbors’ economies are hurting, the U.S. will be affected. Mexico accounts for 15% of U.S. exports and Canada accounts for nearly 20%.
As Yellen noted during the press conference following the Fed’s September meeting, Canada is “an important trading partner of ours that has been negatively affected by declining commodity prices, declining energy prices.”
Woe Is Canada
In fact, Canada is in its first recession since 2008. In the first quarter of 2015, the economy shrank 0.8%. The second-quarter gross domestic product shrank by 0.5%. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates twice this year in an effort to stimulate the economy. Canada’s key rate now stands at 0.5%.
But that only accelerated the downward move of the Canadian dollar. Nicknamed the loonie, it’s down 14% so far this year. More importantly, the loonie is now at an 11-year low versus the U.S. dollar. Its travails can easily be seen by a glance at the performance of the CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust ETF (NYSEArca: FXC).
And thanks to the continuing drop in commodity prices, Canada’s economy is still sputtering. That’s because energy and mining make up about 17% of the country’s economy.
One needs to look no further than the oil-rich province of Alberta. It is projecting an all-time high budget deficit of CA$5.9 billion. That could grow to CA$6.5 billion if oil prices remain low.
Alberta is emblematic of Canada’s dilemma – oil is its largest export. In March, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz described the oil price as “atrocious.” With prices even lower, I wonder what adjective he would use now.
http://etfdailynews.com/2015/10/08/canadas-economy-trying-to-dig-out-from-commodities-hole/