I think it will stay that way for a while at least. The Conservatives sem very much to be trying to talk themselves into an election. It won't change things much...we'll still have a minority government, and the Conservatives will still be official opposition. The Conservatives are likely to come out of it with less seats though, giving the balance of power more to the NDP and BQ, who have similar agendas.
Here's my thinking on that:
The Conservatives aren't going to get any seats in Quebec and it's likely they'll lose some in Ontario the next time around. They could also lose a couple to the NDP in Saskatchewan next election. They will probably make some gains in the Atlantic provinces.
The NDP stand to gain some seats in Ontario, Saskatchewan and BC because those that voted Liberal out of fear of the Conservatives last time are less likely to do so this time around.
The Liberals will lose some seats to the NDP, but win about the same number back from the Liberals.
The BQ will remain fairly stable. If Gomery is still on TV they might pick up a seat or two, but the Liberals are pretty much down to ridings in Quebec that they can hold no matter what happens already, so there isn't likely to be a lot of movement.
That same scenario is likely to play out several times because of the Conservatives red-neck social policies and their insistence that we get even closer to the US at a time when the American president is despised by the majority of Canadians.
Just to get back to the topic...16 year olds being given the vote could reduce the prospects of the Conservatives further because they decided not to have a youth wing at their last convention. While most indications are that the 16-18 vote is spread across the spectrum, youth wings are a proven way of bringing young people into the parties and votes into the ridings, so the lack of a youth wing could hurt the Conservatives.
