99.999% certainty humans are driving global warming: new study

pgs

pgs

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mentalfloss said:
99.999% certainty humans are driving global warming: new study

There is less than 1 chance in 100,000 that global average temperature over the past 60 years would have been as high without human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, our new research shows.

Published in the journal Climate Risk Management today, our research is the first to quantify the probability of historical changes in global temperatures and examines the links to greenhouse gas emissions using rigorous statistical techniques.

Our new CSIRO work provides an objective assessment linking global temperature increases to human activity, which points to a close to certain probability exceeding 99.999%.

Our work extends existing approaches undertaken internationally to detect climate change and attribute it to human or natural causes. The 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report provided an expert consensus that:

It is extremely likely [defined as 95-100% certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human-caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
Decades of extraordinary temperatures

July 2014 was the 353rd consecutive month in which global land and ocean average surface temperature exceeded the 20th-century monthly average. The last time the global average surface temperature fell below that 20th-century monthly average was in February 1985, as reported by the US-based National Climate Data Center.

This means that anyone born after February 1985 has not lived a single month where the global temperature was below the long-term average for that month.

We developed a statistical model that related global temperature to various well-known drivers of temperature variation, including El Niño, solar radiation, volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gas concentrations. We tested it to make sure it worked on the historical record and then re-ran it with and without the human influence of greenhouse gas emissions.

Our analysis showed that the probability of getting the same run of warmer-than-average months without the human influence was less than 1 chance in 100,000.

We do not use physical models of Earth’s climate, but observational data and rigorous statistical analysis, which has the advantage that it provides independent validation of the results.

Detecting and measuring human influence

Our research team also explored the chance of relatively short periods of declining global temperature. We found that rather than being an indicator that global warming is not occurring, the observed number of cooling periods in the past 60 years strongly reinforces the case for human influence.

We identified periods of declining temperature by using a moving 10-year window (1950 to 1959, 1951 to 1960, 1952 to 1961, etc.) through the entire 60-year record. We identified 11 such short time periods where global temperatures declined.

Our analysis showed that in the absence of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, there would have been more than twice as many periods of short-term cooling than are found in the observed data.

There was less than 1 chance in 100,000 of observing 11 or fewer such events without the effects of human greenhouse gas emissions.


CSIRO scientists Dr Steve Rintoul, Dr John Church and Dr Pep Canadell explain how and why the Earth’s climate is warming.
The problem and the solution

Why is this research important? For a start, it might help put to rest some common misunderstandings about there being no link between human activity and the observed, long-term trend of increasing global temperatures.

Our analysis – as well as the work of many others – shows beyond reasonable doubt that humans are contributing to significant changes in our climate.

Good risk management is all about identifying the most likely causes of a problem, and then acting to reduce those risks. Some of the projected impacts of climate change can be avoided, reduced or delayed by effective reduction in global net greenhouse gas emissions and by effective adaptation to the changing climate.

Ignoring the problem is no longer an option. If we are thinking about action to respond to climate change or doing nothing, with a probability exceeding 99.999% that the warming we are seeing is human-induced, we certainly shouldn’t be taking the chance of doing nothing.

99.999% certainty humans are driving global warming: new study
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Good let's all die .
 
Blackleaf

Blackleaf

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Oct 9, 2004
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Another silly global warming scare story.

It is being reported on today's MailOnline that people's diets could be causing "climate change".
 
MHz

MHz

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Mar 16, 2007
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Blackleaf said:
Another silly global warming scare story.
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That we have a chance of snow at the beginning of the week is not a scare story and while it is not unique the length of time it stays might make it unique, kile staying on the ground if it was Halloween. In Alberta in the winter the coldest periods start with cold arctic air riding south along the east side of the Rockies, that is followed by milder air coming across the Rockies and how far east that gets varies. -40 is the dividing line just because steel gets brittle at that temp and if used all the hairline cracks adds much money to the repair bills.

If you could watch the jet stream over a period of decades it's winter pattern should show the same pattern but shifting so it comes earlier, thus making the winters appear to be longer because the warming in the spring is still tied to the sun being at a certain elevation to melt the frozen ground so the planting is at the same time but the harvest has to be sooner, or plant the same crop a bit further south.
The 'flooding' that Texas and Arizona will get could be averted by installing waiste high dams made out of tires.

London might have to give up the bottom floor to become a flood plain and rather than keep cleaning up the 'muck' is added to and before it becomes 'soil' all the new utilities should be run and the flooding will do the back-filling that will be as solid as possible. Knock the roofs off and add another story and a new roof and London is ready until the waters recede and the lower lever can be dug out. The flooding of this era might be enhanced above normal from the north meeting high tides coming from the south due to stronger west -east winds bringing polar air rather than GOM air. difference being 130F. The brits will be making beer at 15% just to stop it from freezing.
The foothills will have to cop with the temp going from -40F to -40F with just 100ft change in elevation. A split that could last for weeks in some areas.
 
#juan

#juan

Hall of Fame Member
Aug 30, 2005
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Tecumsehsbones said:
Do NOT dis the Monkeemobile, Canuck. There will be consequences.
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You're kidding: How can you not like this? I owned one and I put over 200,000 km on it before I sold it, for twice what I paid for it.

http://tommy_eliasson.ownit.name/EUbilar/Mercedes%20Benz%201952%20220%20fram.jpg
 
SLM

SLM

The Velvet Hammer
Mar 5, 2011
29,151
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London, Ontario
captain morgan said:
I think that the word you're looking for here is 'bohemian'.
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I think that's just the grasstafarians.

 
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