Of course, but it is hardly the focused target of the drama being perpetrated upon us.Bear, deforestation would be classified as human activity and a catalyst. It's one of many levers at work contributing to the the global climate crisis unfolding today. I'd like to think this is just a bump on the road but the change does seem to be entrenched and accelerating. Something has to be done by human communities to slow the train.
Mikey, given Exxon's latest profit reports, I think we can expect some co-operation from the corporate sector in getting a fix going.
Yup and despite all its flaws, sheeple still follow it along blindly. But like I said, the flaw in the model has exasorbated the issue, the focus on but one part of the issue is telling, the absence of address to other major human contributions, such as deforestation and natural occurances, leave the taste of "hidden agenda" in my mouth.Lets get one thing straight here. The Kyoto Protocol is not science. The Kyoto Protocol is the end result of 180 beurocratic delegates who couldn't agree on policy. The Protocol has three major flaws and note they are not scientific.
1) The decision to exclude 150 developing nations
2) The agreement is legally binding, with no way of enforcing
3) The agreement was premature, incomplete and adopted anyways.
So far what I'm seeing here is refutation of this new science based on old science, in some cases as someone mentioned earlier retired researchers who probably havn't touched a broad range spectrometer or sampled materials in over 10 years.
Oh yes juan, I'm an Ostrich, but no malice was intented of course.The ostriches just can't seem to understand the science. Bush and his cronies refused to understand it and Harper went right along with them. We will notice over the next few weeks that both Bush and Harper have changed course by about a hundred and eighty degrees. Now the irresponsible right can't get enough of climate change. What was a plot to "suck money" from the good guys is now a "real danger that we all have to address". Funny.....![]()
That's easy Mikey, they once reached the Ohio valley, but the SUV's the dinosaurs were drivin, melted them all.Dexter....
If you could provide some data on how much the glaciers were reduced over the period of planetary change prior to human activity that might be helpful. Or is it a case that the glaciers and ice-caps melting have been a part of the normal cycle of the planet before and it's simply the end of life as we know it...as a part or the normal planetary cycles...
I'm willing to believe that orbits change, that radiation (microwave..background noise...etc. all these things are in motion...
I don't believe that we can apply historical records ...from as long ago as records started being kept by this species to predict the effect of human activity on this balance of gasses we rely upon. No data that I've seen suggests that the entire metric of atmospheric composition can be verified in terms of the effects of human industry...because we haven't had the effects of human industry on the scale of current activity...since those records were first created...
While ice-cores and radiometry readings can give us clues about what the pre-historical climate of the planet may have been...is that really any use when you put human industry at the current level into the mix...?
No. And here's why: here's the CO2 chart. I was going to edit it into my other post but the server kept timing out on me. Note that CO2 concentrations are much higher now than they've ever been in the last 400,000 years, and the projection for 2050 is a little alarming. What I'm suggesting is, first, that most of the temperature change we've seen so far is part of a natural cycle and the provable human contribution is about at the level of uncertainty in the data. Second, it appears that we're pumping a lot more CO2 into the atmosphere than nature ever has, at least over the last 400,000 years, and we'd better stop doing that.Dexter
I'm sorry I don't grasp your point...
Are you suggesting /stating...that human activity can be ignored?
Absolutely, but one didn't sign, but is actually trying to assist, the other two are exempt.No. And here's why: here's the CO2 chart. I was going to edit it into my other post but the server kept timing out on me. Note that CO2 concentrations are much higher now than they've ever been in the last 400,000 years, and the projection for 2050 is a little alarming. What I'm suggesting is, first, that most of the temperature change we've seen so far is part of a natural cycle and the provable human contribution is about at the level of uncertainty in the data. Second, it appears that we're pumping a lot more CO2 into the atmosphere than nature ever has, at least over the last 400,000 years, and we'd better stop doing that.
It also seems worth noting that Canada could shut down tomorrow and it wouldn't have the slightest effect on CO2 concentrations. It's the big contributors like the U.S., China, and India that can make a difference.
Pretty big research project you're asking for there, but I can tell you this off the top. 18,000 years ago what is now Canada was almost completely covered with glacial ice and by 8000 years ago the landscape south of the 60th parallel was approximately as we see it today. The ice is still retreating, as it has been for 18,000 years, but it seems to be accelerating. The north polar ice cap has lost about half its thickness since 1960, and the extent of summer ice cover has shrunk by about 20%.Dexter....
If you could provide some data on how much the glaciers were reduced over the period of planetary change prior to human activity that might be helpful. Or is it a case that the glaciers and ice-caps melting have been a part of the normal cycle of the planet before and it's simply the end of life as we know it...as a part or the normal planetary cycles...
Global warming=RealBear
I'm sorry I'm a little.. or a lot..daft and you'll have to make that post a little clearer for me...
One idea...it's perfectly acceptable in the name of progress (business) to build enormous oil tankers that have devastated marine life all over the planet becuase the wheels of progress demand lubrication...
Another idea....
No single component, not burning fossil fuels, not cow-farts, not deforestaion is ultimately responsible for what's happening to our climate....
The focus on petroleum and fossil fuel use....is a tiny part of the whole problem...it's just really quick and easy to focus on that and that alone...
I suppose there's never been any movement (social movement) in all of human history that's as important as the affects human industry and greed have had on our planet. We can all get behind banning nukes...unless you're America or Russia or some world power with lots of nukes to begin with...but when it comes to recognizing and internalizing the greater effects of minute sociological changes on the environment and living conditions of human beings..."I'm sorry the number you have dialed...is no longer in service"....
That would be a necessity, if anyone in here was trying to dismiss global warming as a hoax. I don't see that from anyone. I see people exposing the snake oil sales men and their hapless sheeple pouring their heart and souls into a big con job.The natural evidence that points to manmade climate change is overwhelming, but the skeptics are hanging on to outdated beliefs and outdated arguments that don't fit the evidence.
What we need is a lesson on how to talk to the skeptics....:|
http://tinyurl.com/yf48tb
Also a lesson on what scientists mean when they say things. The evidence is not overwhelming, it's merely "very likely," as the most recent document we're discussing here says. Not the same thing. The evidence, I agree, is now pretty compelling, much stronger than it was even a year ago, and the uncertainties are not an argument in favour of ignoring it. A glance at those charts I posted, especially the way CO2 concentrations and temperature changes move together with a slight time lag, may in fact mean that it's already too late to do much about it on anything less than a time period of some thousands of years. The climate is warming, no question about that, and human activities appear to be accelerating it, so it behooves us to protect ourselves and try to minimize our contribution. Kyoto's not it. That's the only conclusion I can make.The natural evidence that points to manmade climate change is overwhelming, but the skeptics are hanging on to outdated beliefs and outdated arguments that don't fit the evidence.
What we need is a lesson on how to talk to the skeptics
Minus your education and intellect, that is my point entirely, thank you sir.Also a lesson on what scientists mean when they say things. The evidence is not overwhelming, it's merely "very likely," as the most recent document we're discussing here says. Not the same thing. The evidence, I agree, is now pretty compelling, much stronger than it was even a year ago, and the uncertainties are not an argument in favour of ignoring it. A glance at those charts I posted, especially the way CO2 concentrations and temperature changes move together with a slight time lag, may in fact mean that it's already too late to do much about it on anything less than a time period of some thousands of years. The climate is warming, no question about that, and human activities appear to be accelerating it, so it behooves us to protect ourselves and try to minimize our contribution. Kyoto's not it. That's the only conclusion I can make.
Flatterer. With me, flattery will get you everywhere.. .Minus your education and intellect, that is my point entirely, thank you sir.
Global warming=Real
All man made=Bogus
I can not put my support behind a social engineering project.
If the environment was the focus of Kyoto and the whining about the environment from the elitest class, they would address all environmental issues, not just the socialy acceptable and socialist wealth distrobutive factors enshrined in Kyoto.
Kyoto will fix nothing. It will not regrow trees, bring back well water to the Oak Ridges water shead, revive decimated wildlife, displaced by urban sprawl, it will not decontaminate the ground waters the soil the mother.
It is social engineering, all the scientific data decrying the issue of global warming will not fix a damn thing if it is all in the effort to promote Kyoto.
That would be a necessity, if anyone in here was trying to dismiss global warming as a hoax. I don't see that from anyone. I see people exposing the snake oil sales men and their hapless sheeple pouring their heart and souls into a big con job.
Kyoto will fix nothing.
You can post all sarcastic wit you want, minus any malice of course, and still not provide one shred of evidence that Kyoto will work. I on the other hand have already proved it is failing in Europe and the people are paying for.
Big European business, is not changing.
Little European working men and woiman, have seen a 65% increase in their bills because of it.
Where is all the socialist outcrying for the little man now???
The European little man is being squashed!!!
We're next!!!
That isn't scientists fault. That's the press and environuts activities.yes I agree we need to stop toxic billowing smoke and not generate nuclear power fuel but --dont scare a billion people to make money
Weather is weather & climate is climate; there's a difference. Weather is what you see when you look out the window, climate is the general trend over a period of time (like a season) in comparison to the same periods of time in other years.Global warming or global cooling?
Almost as soon as the Kyoto Protocol on global warming came into effect on February 15, Kashmir suffered the highest snowfall in three decades with over 150 killed, and Mumbai recorded the lowest temperature in 40 years. Had temperatures been the highest for decades, newspapers would have declared this was proof of global warming. But whenever temperatures drop, the press keeps quiet.
We know more about climate now than we did in 1970.Things were different in 1940-70, when there was global cooling. Every cold winter then was hailed as proof of a coming new Ice Age. But the moment cooling was replaced by warming, a new disaster in the opposite direction was proclaimed.
Press is press, public hysteria is public hysteria. Neither have a bearing on whether science's information is fact or fantasy. People who listen to the news or environuts for information are foolish. There are dozens of publications around that contain the actual info and do not include the emotional claptrap emitted by scaremongers and press.A recent Washington Post article gave this scientist's quote from 1972. "We simply cannot afford to gamble. We cannot risk inaction. The scientists who disagree are acting irresponsibly. The indications that our climate can soon change for the worse are too strong to be reasonably ignored." The warning was not about global warming (which was not happening): it was about global cooling!
In the media, disaster is news, and its absence is not. This principle has been exploited so skillfully by ecological scare-mongers that it is now regarded as politically incorrect, even unscientific, to denounce global warming hysteria as unproven speculation.
I don't know about your area but around here the weather people are more right than wrong these days. It used to be that one could look at bugs or ask auntie agatha how the arthritis was in her left elbow to see what the weather was gonna be like and be more accurate. Not so any more.Meteorologists are a standing joke for getting predictions wrong even a few days ahead. The same jokers are being taken seriously when they use computer models to predict the weather 100 years hence.
That's dead wrong. I thought I posted a couple links about models.The models have not been tested for reliability over 100 years, or even 20 years. Different models yield variations in warming of 400%, which means they are statistically meaningless.
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000525AD-1223-1354-922383414B7F0000Diffenbaugh's model incorporates the additional natural variables and does so at a resolution of 25-kilometer grid squares. The smaller squares provide a higher resolution and a better picture of what is in store for the country by the end of the century. Assuming that human-generated greenhouse gases attain concentrations more than twice their current level, Diffenbaugh's model predicts several events: the desert Southwest will have more frequent and intense heat waves, combined with less precipitation during the summer; the Gulf Coast will grow hotter and experience heavier rainfalls in short time periods; the Northeast will suffer under longer, hotter summers; overall, the continental U.S. will undergo a warming trend that will reduce the length of winter.
To confirm the model's accuracy, Diffenbaugh ran it using weather data from between 1961 and 1985 and compared the prediction with what actually occurred. "The model performed admirably, which tells us we've got a good understanding of how to represent the physical world in terms of computer code," he comments.
Read this:Wassily Leontief, Nobel prize winner for modeling, said this about the limits of models. "We move from more or less plausible but really arbitrary assumptions, to elegantly demonstrated but irrelevant conclusions." Exactly. Assume continued warming as in the last three decades, and you get a warming disaster. Assume more episodes of global cooling, and you get a cooling disaster.
- http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overviewtools.htmClimate models continue to improve, and assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions continue to evolve. The two primary models used to project changes in climate in this Assessment were developed at the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom. They have been peer-reviewed by other scientists and both incorporate similar assumptions about future emissions (both approximate the mid-range emissions scenario described in About Scenarios and Uncertainty). These models were the best fit to a list of criteria developed for this Assessment. Climate models developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology in Germany, were also used in various aspects of the Assessment.
While the physical principles driving these models are similar, the models differ in how they represent the effects of some important processes. Therefore, the two primary models paint different views of 21st century climate. On average over the US, the Hadley model projects a much wetter climate than does the Canadian model, while the Canadian model projects a greater increase in temperature than does the Hadley model. Both projections are plausible, given current understanding. In most climate models, increases in temperature for the US are significantly higher than the global average temperature increase. This is due to the fact that all models project the warming to be greatest at middle to high latitudes, partly because melting snow and ice make the surface less reflective of sunlight, allowing it to absorb more heat. Warming will also be greater over land than over the oceans because it takes longer for the oceans to warm.
As I previously said, people who listen to scaremongers and environuts are fools. Look at the data available for yourself and learn about the issue then make a decision.In his latest best seller State of Fear, Michael Crichton does a devastating expose of the way ecological groups have tweaked data and facts to create mass hysteria. He points out that we know astonishingly little about the environment. All sides make exaggerated claims.
Perhaps. Perhaps not:We know that atmospheric carbon is increasing. We are also in the midst of a natural warming trend that started in 1850 at the end of what is called the Little Ice Age. It is scientifically impossible to prove whether the subsequent warming is natural or man-made.
Funny, a few years ago scientists said that global warming would likely cause extremes in weather. Then along came the hurricanes in 2005, 2006 was mild in comparison, but 2006 had a normal hurricane season. Also along came the winter of 2005/2006 in Europe and Russia.Greens say, rightly, that the best scientific assessment today is that global warming is occurring. Yet never in history have scientists accurately predicted what will happen 100 years later. A century ago no scientists predicted the internet, microwave ovens, TV, nuclear explosions or antibiotics. It is impossible, even stupid, to predict the distant future.
It's scientific truth that science is wrong sometimes or right sometimes? Nuts. That's just an observation.That scientific truth is rarely mentioned. Why? Because the global warming movement has now become a multi-billion dollar enterprise with thousands of jobs and millions in funding for NGOs and think-tanks, top jobs and prizes for scientists, and huge media coverage for predictions of disaster.
As I commented to another sceptic once; with glaciers receding, polar caps melting, permafrost becoming temporary, ocean temperatures rising, etc. how can you possibly think the planet is not warming?I have long been an agnostic on global warming: the evidence is ambiguous. But I almost became a convert when Greenpeace publicised photos showing the disastrously rapid retreat of the Upsala Glacier in Argentina. How disastrous, I thought, if this was the coming fate of all glaciers.
I guess it's only a couple or three glaciers that are receding. :roll:Then last Christmas, I went on vacation to Lake Argentina. The Upsala glacier and six other glaciers descend from the South Andean icefield into the lake. I was astounded to discover that while the Upsala glacier had retreated rapidly, the other glaciers showed little movement, and one had advanced across the lake into the Magellan peninsula. If in the same area some glaciers advance and others retreat, the cause is clearly not global warming but local micro-conditions.
Yet the Greenpeace photos gave the impression that glaciers in general were in rapid retreat. It was a con job, a dishonest effort to mislead. From the same icefield, another major glacier spilling into Chile has grown 60% in volume.
Greenpeace and other ecological groups have well-intentioned people with high ideals. But as crusaders they want to win by any means, honest or not. I do not like being taken for a ride, by idealists or anyone else.
We need impartial research, funded neither by MNCs, governmental groups or NGOs with private agendas. And the media needs to stop highlighting disaster scares and ignoring exposes of the scares.
Thanx!!!Flatterer. With me, flattery will get you everywhere.. .Formal education, maybe so, but I don't think you should take a back seat to anybody in the intellect department.
Perhaps my intent is not clear, but I can assure you I agree there is an issue that requires great concern, but Kyoto does not address it, these scientist address a mere fraction of the damage inflicted on the Mother, and nothing anyone says is changing that.Maybe that's your intent Bear but that's not the spirit your contributions convey.
Dexter is right is saying that Kyoto isn't the silver bullet...but you should never go to a gunfight with an empty gun...
Sure the tundra is melting...that doesn't mean global warming as a human effect is causing it...Sure there are great ice sheets melting and glaciers all over the planet are disappearing...that doesn't mean human activity is to blame....
So it makes sense to do nothing?....To accept that rising oceans and far more energetic thermal disturbances...tornadoes hurricanes etc. are simply part of the natural course of events?
Sure we can do nothing and wait until we have absolutely accurate data...hell the earth is flat, the moon is made of green cheese, unicorns bound across the countryside....until we have this absolute proof that seems necessary to convince people that we are accelerating a natural phenomenon..we can just ignore it all...is that about it Bear?
Diseases aren't conquered by ignoring them and hoping they'll go away... Disease and bacteria are just as natural as anything else we've bothered to look at....but when we decide that a strategy to combat the effects of disease and plagues is dismissed because we refuse to believe that invisible little guys called germs are behind this illness or this sickness.....
Do you have some proof that I believe otherwise?Global climate change is not about social engineering. Global warming is , whether you want to believe it or not, is a fact of life.
Ignore what?Whining about Kyoto began in 1998. Kyoto was, and is, a tiny first step. We have been forced to learn a lot in the nine years since Kyoto was first signed by anyone.
"Kyoto will fix nothing". Absolutely right, as long as we ignore it. The original Kyoto Accord is now out of date and the world now needs a bigger, tougher version.
What can I say, you are my idol, I strive to emulate you. LOL. btw, I wasn't complaining, without malice, I was making fun of the typical response when logic fails to be applied.You, Bear, cannot complain about sarcasm....it is your stock in trade.
Barely and they won't meet their targets either, the big energy producers received more credits then they needed, now they are reeping bigger profits selling them. All the while jacking up the costs and sending that to the consumers.E.U. countries are reducing their emissions, and certainly it is costing them. It will cost North americans as well......What choice do we have? It is our children we have to leave the world to.