China has at least two major problems. 1) It is very unlikely China will be able to gain the local air superiority/air dominance needed for a chance at a successful amphibious assault.
2) They don't have nearly enough amphibious assault vehicles or landing craft to pull it off. What they do have is pitiful, they only carry 4 soldiers each although the CCP did requisition a bunch of ROLO ferries, so they got that going for them. Aside from the 4-person capacity, they are thinly armoured. They do have a 76mm gun but I can't imagine the accuracy is going to be great bobbing up and down on waves. Once ashore their thin armour will be even more useless.
Xi's optimistic plan is hopefully, maybe, possibly to be ready to invade by sometime in 2027. He's got a long hill to climb. Fuck man, even Japan has put a new aircraft carrier into service. Japan! With more to come. The nation that swore to never build an offensive military force is doing so JUST because of China and their aggressive bullshit in the region.
And here's what China would likely face if they tried to invade. Taiwan itself, and the navies (or elements thereof) of Japan, the Philippines, Australia, the US and maybe, possibly India. And even though China has the "largest" navy in the world, 90% of it or more is a green water navy. When it comes to gross total tonnage, the US is still the biggest and it's a blue water navy.
And considering China has little to no experience in major seaborne invasions, trying to invade Taiwan will most likely only teach them some devastating lessons.
2) They don't have nearly enough amphibious assault vehicles or landing craft to pull it off. What they do have is pitiful, they only carry 4 soldiers each although the CCP did requisition a bunch of ROLO ferries, so they got that going for them. Aside from the 4-person capacity, they are thinly armoured. They do have a 76mm gun but I can't imagine the accuracy is going to be great bobbing up and down on waves. Once ashore their thin armour will be even more useless.
Xi's optimistic plan is hopefully, maybe, possibly to be ready to invade by sometime in 2027. He's got a long hill to climb. Fuck man, even Japan has put a new aircraft carrier into service. Japan! With more to come. The nation that swore to never build an offensive military force is doing so JUST because of China and their aggressive bullshit in the region.
And here's what China would likely face if they tried to invade. Taiwan itself, and the navies (or elements thereof) of Japan, the Philippines, Australia, the US and maybe, possibly India. And even though China has the "largest" navy in the world, 90% of it or more is a green water navy. When it comes to gross total tonnage, the US is still the biggest and it's a blue water navy.
And considering China has little to no experience in major seaborne invasions, trying to invade Taiwan will most likely only teach them some devastating lessons.
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