Iran War. . . USA Up 2-0 in the First Period

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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Regina, Saskatchewan
Both sides claim to have won and both side sides are waiting for the other to capitulate, so yeah, no reason whatsoever I guess, by anyone on any side of this latest chapter in the goat rodeo. If this Islamabad thing is just for optics for both sides, then neither has any real motivation to do anything except point fingers and take selfies I guess.
Donald Trump said that "deep negotiations" were underway but in a combative interaction with reporters Saturday, the president contended he did not care about the outcome, insisting the United States had already triumphed on the battlefield by killing Iranian leaders and destroying key military infrastructure.
Each side blamed the other for the failure of the 21-hour negotiations to end fighting that ‌has killed thousands, roiled the global economy and sent oil prices soaring since it began more than six weeks ago.
"Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me. The reason is because we've won," Trump said? Oh yeah, ok.
Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who led his country's delegation along with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, blamed the U.S. for not winning Iran's trust despite his team offering "forward-looking initiatives".

Both the U.S. and Iranian delegations have now left Islamabad to return home, Pakistani sources told Reuters.

The talks, after a ceasefire earlier in the week, were the first direct U.S.-Iranian meeting in more than a decade and the highest-level discussions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Vance said Iran had chosen not to accept American terms, including not to build nuclear weapons.

"We need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon," he said.

"That is the core goal of the president of the United States, and that's what we've tried to achieve through these negotiations."
Iran demands for any agreement to end the war include unfreezing sanctioned Iranian assets and ending Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Vance has said will not be up for discussion in Islamabad…so things are off to ether a great start or a complete standstill, or both. A Pakistani official told AFP talks were "progressing in the right direction" whatever that means.
Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency said "excessive" U.S. demands had hindered reaching an agreement. Other Iranian media said there was agreement on a number of issues but that the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear programme were the main points of difference.
The US military said Saturday that two Navy warships transited through the strait to begin clearing it of mines and ensure it is a "safe pathway" for tankers.

The Iranian military denied that any American warships had entered the waterway and threatened to respond if they do so.
These two sides would not have been able to agree on what to have for dinner last night. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said it was "imperative" to preserve the two-week ceasefire that was agreed last Tuesday as the sides attempt to wind down a war that began on February 28 with air strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran.
"There were mood swings from the two sides and the temperature went up and down during the meeting," another Pakistani source said in reference to the first round of talks aimed at ending the six-week conflict.
Tehran is demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz, ⁠payment of war reparations and a ceasefire across the region, including in Lebanon, according to Iranian state TV and officials, as well as the release of its frozen assets abroad.

Tehran also wants to collect transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz.
Why on Earth should they open it?
No reason apparently. Not like anyone except Iran uses or relies on it, like Saudi Arabia who signed that PetroDollar thing in ‘74 in exchange for some promises from America, or the other nations along the Persian (Arabian) Gulf.
If this Islamabad thing is just for optics for both sides, then neither has any real motivation to do anything except point fingers and take selfies I guess.
Trump's stated goals have shifted😳, but as a minimum he wants free passage for global shipping through the strait…
"We'll open up the strait even though we don't use it, because we have a lot of other countries in the world that do use it that are either afraid or weak or cheap," Trump said? Seriously Dude…”almost” nobody believes your schtick anymore…
…and the crippling of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme to ensure it cannot produce an atomic bomb. Tehran has long denied seeking to build a nuclear weapon.
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So….so with both sides declaring victory, and with neither side willing to capitulate to the other…here we are for round next. These were not Islamagood talks.
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Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
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Israel's ongoing campaign against Iran's Lebanese ally, armed group Hezbollah, threatened to derail the talks before they've even started. Hezbollah is a direct ally and proxy of Iran, while the nation of Lebanon is a country heavily influenced and often compromised by that alliance.
U.S. ally Israel, which joined the February 28 attacks on Iran that launched the war, has also been bombing Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and says that conflict is not part of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire. Israeli and Lebanese officials plan talks in the U.S. on Tuesday.
Hezbollah operates as a "state within a state," maintaining its own military force that often supersedes the Lebanese army, and while many Shia Lebanese clerics have ties to Iran, the Lebanese state itself is not a formal member of the Iran-led alliance, and many Lebanese oppose Hezbollah's entanglement with Tehran.
Iran's network of regional allies and proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and an assortment of militias in Iraq – has given Tehran regional clout, allowing Iran to exercise what is often called "forward defence" in its long-running disputes with Israel, Saudi Arabia, the governments of Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, as well as the United States.
While Hezbollah operates within Lebanon, the Lebanese government itself is not formally allied with Iran, though it faces deep, often forced, influence from Hezbollah. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says there is "no ceasefire" when it comes to Hezbollah, but Israel's repeated warning to residents of Beirut's southern suburbs to evacuate has yet to result in any further action.
The new Syrian government has shifted toward distancing itself from Iran, with its leaders explicitly denouncing Iranian proxies as a regional threat and a detriment to Syrian stability. The new government has sought to break ties with Tehran and reduce the presence of Iranian-aligned militias.
US President Donald Trump says Israel's action in Lebanon will now be "a little more low key", and the US State Department says direct talks between Israel and Lebanon will take place in Washington next week. Apparently they were not low-key enough (among other things) to satisfy Iranian officials in Islamabad.
Since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023, the network Iran calls the "Axis of Resistance" has been under constant attack. One part of it, the regime of the former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, no longer exists.
Pakistan faces a "nightmare scenario" of being caught between its alliance with Saudi Arabia (with whom it shares a mutual defence pact) and its neighbor Iran, potentially forcing it into regional fighting. All U.S. negotiators left Pakistan, leaving no immediate back-channel discussions, though Russia impartially has offered to mediate?😁
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Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
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Toronto drivers welcomed a 13-cent drop in gas prices Friday morning, but one energy analyst says it will likely take months before the pain at the pumps brought on by the war in Iran subsides, & that was before this weekend’s shenanigans.

McKnight explained that the overnight drop was a result of a 14-day ceasefire announced between the U.S. and Iran on Tuesday, which included reopening the Strait of Hormuz (sort of), a narrow waterway in the Middle East that was used to ship 20 per cent of the world’s oil before the joint U.S.-Israel military operation in Iran began in late February.
President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy would immediately start blockading the ‌Strait of Hormuz and would also interdict every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran.
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Trump made his remarks in a Truth Social post ⁠hours after U.S-.Iran peace talks ended without a deal. Trump said the meeting "went well, most points were agreed," (?) but added the two sides had not agreed on Iran's nuclear program.
Maybe it’s more that Oman is physically small & wants the American base there to remain there as a deterrent to Iran & its other neighbours, and that might change if it sides with Iran in this global economic hostage situation with the Strait of Hormuz?
"Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING ‌any ⁠and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz," said Trump, who is strongly opposed to the idea of Iran charging ⁠ships a toll to pass through the strait.
At moments, Donald Trump has appeared to be attracted by the idea of operating the toll booth himself, rather than opening up free passage. “What about us charging toll?” he said this week. “I’d rather do that than let them have them. Why shouldn’t we? We’re the winner. We won.”
"I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict ⁠every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one ⁠who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas," he said. Good times.
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(YouTube & Trump says US to ‘blockade all ships entering or leaving Strait of Hormuz’)
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petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Peace negotiations. Why on Earth should Israel stop fighting back against Hezbollah in Lebanon? Peace negotiations. Why should Trump stop attacking Iranian civilian infrastructure?
Because US & Israel have only 20% air defense left and Iran has thousands of ballistic missiles and thousands of shaheeds.

It's called the upper hand Ron.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
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Because US & Israel have only 20% air defense left and Iran has thousands of ballistic missiles and thousands of shaheeds.

It's called the upper hand Ron.
Ok. Now what happens? I’m not even talking about Trump, but all of Irans neighbours that use (also use) the Persian (or Arabian) Gulf? What happens with the mutual defence pact between Pakistan & Saudi Arabia (Pakistan has nukes)? Israel probably has nukes. America and Russia and China definitely have nukes & they’re involved in this in the background.

If Iran lashes out at Turkey, who is a member of NATO, there will be a real actual article 5 situation potentially, & only the second time of this of ever being used aside from after 9/11.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
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Ok. Now what happens? I’m not even talking about Trump, but all of Irans neighbours that use (also use) the Persian (or Arabian) Gulf? What happens with the mutual defence pact between Pakistan & Saudi Arabia (Pakistan has nukes)? Israel probably has nukes. America and Russia and China definitely have nukes & they’re involved in this in the background.

If Iran lashes out at Turkey, who is a member of NATO, there will be a real actual article 5 situation potentially, & only the second time of this of ever being used aside from after 9/11.
What happens? Buck-O-Barrel happens.

It's Israel who will attack Turkey. Why do you think Trump wants out of NATO?
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
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Fuck yeah. US and Israel ran out of air defenses.
So…With Trumps Blockade on the sort of Blockade…what happens when:

China (37.7%), India (14.7%), South Korea (12.0%), and Japan (10.9%) are the top destinations. Major exporters using this route include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Iran, and Kuwait.

When China & India send their own Navies into escort their own tankers out through that strait?
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Major Exporting Countries (Originating in the Persian Gulf) according to Visual Capitalist, the primary exporters, often referred to by the IEA – International Energy Agency as relying on this route, are:
  • Saudi Arabia (37.2%): Largest exporter, with limited ability to bypass via the East-West pipeline, with the Houthis choking the waterway at the bottom of that pipeline still cutting off India & China.
  • Iraq (22.8%): Relies heavily on this route.
  • United Arab Emirates (12.9%): Can divert roughly half of its daily exports via the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.
  • Iran (10.6%): Utilizes the strait for exports.
  • Kuwait (10.1%): Relies on the strait.
The Strait of Hormuz is critical, with over 90% of Gulf oil exports passing through it, but also many (like fertilizer) other things.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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So…With Trumps Blockade or the sort of Blockade…what happens when:

China (37.7%), India (14.7%), South Korea (12.0%), and Japan (10.9%) are the top destinations. Major exporters using this route include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Iran, and Kuwait.

When China & India send their own Navies into escort their own tankers out through that strait?
View attachment 34066

Major Exporting Countries (Originating in the Persian Gulf) according to Visual Capitalist, the primary exporters, often referred to by the IEA – International Energy Agency as relying on this route, are:
  • Saudi Arabia (37.2%): Largest exporter, with limited ability to bypass via the East-West pipeline, with the Houthis choking the waterway at the bottom of that pipeline still cutting off India & China.
  • Iraq (22.8%): Relies heavily on this route.
  • United Arab Emirates (12.9%): Can divert roughly half of its daily exports via the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.
  • Iran (10.6%): Utilizes the strait for exports.
  • Kuwait (10.1%): Relies on the strait.
The Strait of Hormuz is critical, with over 90% of Gulf oil exports passing through it, but also many (like fertilizer) other things.
All Trump can do is try to blow smoke up the asses of his now dead MAGA crowd.

He's powerless. He has to kiss Persian ass while petro dollar falls through the floor.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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Regina, Saskatchewan
All Trump can do is try to blow smoke up the asses of his now dead MAGA crowd.

He's powerless. He has to kiss Persian ass while petro dollar falls through the floor.
(YouTube & Trump says US to blockade ships crossing Strait of Hormuz)

Trump with his middle of the night toilet tweets on truth social is also saying that other countries aside from America are going to be blockading that Strait without saying who they are. That’s curious all by itself.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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(YouTube & Trump says US to blockade ships crossing Strait of Hormuz)

Trump with his middle of the night toilet tweets on truth social is also saying that other countries aside from America are going to be blockading that Strait without saying who they are. That’s curious all by itself.
Xi will send his navy to control the strait long before Trump gets any control.

The US didn't protect the GCC, they're looking elsewhere now.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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Regina, Saskatchewan
Xi will send his navy to control the strait long before Trump gets any control.

The US didn't protect the GCC, they're looking elsewhere now.
India too I’m assuming, & both of them are nuclear powers…even to escort their own ships (tankers & cargo both). India & Pakistan had their recent kerfuffle and Pakistan & Saudi Arabia with their recent mutual defence pact. America blowing their wad of missiles in the last 6-7 weeks that’ll need to be replaced & replenished. I’m assuming Taiwan is also watching this closely…as is Ukraine & Russia…& Russia will make out like a bandit here and has even offered to mediate between Iran and Trump overnight.

Trump has American Forces there now does he not? Not sure how china could beat them there.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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Regina, Saskatchewan
Trump has American Forces there now does he not? Not sure how china could beat them there.
The United States has heavily reinforced its military presence across the Middle East outside the immediate Persian Gulf, with over 50,000 troops and significant air and naval assets focused on Iran. Major deployments include carriers in the Arabian Sea, air strike wings in Jordan, and thousands of personnel in Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

Key U.S. military forces currently outside the Persian Gulf include:
  • Naval Forces (Arabian Sea & Region): The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Groupand the USS Gerald R. Ford are operating in the Arabian Sea. Numerous destroyers and combat ships are stationed in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.
  • Air Power (Regional Bases):
    • Jordan: A major buildup of F-15E Strike Eagle fighters is located at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base.
    • Qatar: Al Udeid Air Base hosts advanced air defense systems (Patriot and THAAD) and aircraft, alongside allied RAF Typhoon jets.
    • Turkey: Incirlik Air Base remains a major hub.
  • Ground and Special Forces (Regional Bases):
    • Kuwait: Over 13,500 personnel, including troops at Camp Buehring, act as a staging post.
    • Iraq & Syria: Approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq and 2,000 in Syria, operating at locations such as Ain al-Asad and Erbil.
    • Saudi Arabia: Approximately 2,700 personnel supporting air defense.
    • Jordan: Roughly 3,800 troops, excluding Air Force personnel.
These forces are designed for immediate response, with reports of "tens of thousands" of troops, air defenses, and carrier groups designed to provide firepower from the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea.
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With the mountains in Iran to the north of the strait, Iran will (at least initially, & that might be all it needs) have the high ground…until jets arrive. If Iran is willing to sacrifice (one use and dispose of) whatever it throws at the Strait of Hormuz, repeatedly a few times, it’ll “probably” make the insurance companies veto any passage of the strait.