Iran War. . . USA Up 2-0 in the First Period

Ron in Regina

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Anywho, Israel and the United States pounded Iran on Monday in an escalating campaign that U.S. President Donald Trump said would likely take several weeks. Tehran and its allies hit back across the region, striking Israel and a variety of targets inside Gulf states, including energy facilities in Qatar and the American embassy in Saudi Arabia.

The intensity of the attacks, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the lack of any apparent exit plan set the stage for a prolonged conflict with far-reaching consequences. Safe havens in the Mideast like Dubai have seen incoming fire; hundreds of thousands of airline passengers are stranded around the globe; energy prices shot up; and U.S. allies pledged to help stop Iranian missiles and drones.

Saudi Arabia said early Tuesday that the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh came under attack from two drones, which caused a “limited fire” and minor damage. Further details weren’t immediately available. On Monday, the U.S. Embassy compound in Kuwait was struck.

With no sign of the conflict abating, Trump said operations are likely to last four to five weeks but that he was prepared “to go far longer than that.”

In a sign of concern over the potential for spiraling violence, the State Department on Monday urged U.S. citizens to leave more than a dozen Middle Eastern countries due to safety risks.

“The hardest hits are yet to come from the U.S. military,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters. “The next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now.”

Trump said the military campaign's objectives are to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities, wipe out its navy, prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon and ensure that it cannot continue to support allied groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah, which fired missiles at Israel on Monday.🙄
Same conflict on going for 58 year.
So…what conflict has Hezbollah been involved with Israel in for 58 years?
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Hell, what conflict have Iran and Israel been involved in for 58yrs seeing as Hezbollah is an Iranian patsy proxy?
Iran expands attacks to regional energy facilities while try’n to make this into an Islam vs non-Islam thing, ‘cuz why not? World markets were rattled as the fighting expanded across a region vital to energy supplies.

Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery came under attack from drones, but its defenses downed the incoming aircraft, a military spokesman told the state-run Saudi Press Agency. The refinery has a capacity of over half a million barrels of crude oil a day.
“The attack on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery marks a significant escalation, with Gulf energy infrastructure now squarely in Iran’s sights,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, an analyst at the risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

The Gulf state of Qatar said its air force shot down two Iranian Sukhoi Su-24 bombers, and QatarEnergy said it would stop producing liquefied natural gas indefinitely, taking one of the world’s top suppliers off the market. European natural gas prices surged by 40% in response, while several ships have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil traded passes and where Iran has threatened attacks.

Hezbollah in Lebanon fires on Israel, prompting massive response.🙄Hezbollah said it fired missiles on Israel early Monday in response to Khamenei’s killing and “repeated Israeli aggressions.” It was the first time in more than a year the militant group has claimed an attack.
It does and no, Greater Israel has nothing to do with being attacked. Wake the fuck up
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Israel retaliated with strikes on Lebanon. The country's Health Ministry reported at least 52 people were killed and 154 wounded in overnight strikes in the Beirut suburbs and southern Lebanon. Associated Press journalists in Beirut were jolted awake by loud explosions that shook buildings and shattered windows, ‘cuz greater Israel.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior official said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported.

This is Iran's most explicit warning since telling ‌ships it was closing the export route on Saturday, a move that threatens to choke a fifth of global oil flows and send crude prices sharply higher.
1772500644993.jpeg"The strait (of Hormuz) is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze," Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the Guards commander-in-chief, ⁠said in remarks carried by state media.
(The move also comes after global ⁠shipping had already experienced disruptions linked to drone and missile attacks carried out by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militants. The group has targeted vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden ⁠since the Gaza war broke out about October 7th, 2023 for some reason)
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I wonder if those are “manned” craft above? The IRGC plays a key role in Iran’s defence, foreign operations and regional influence with its 190,000 or so active personnel and a total of 600,000 if reserves are included. The IRGC manages Iran’s ballistic missile programme, is responsible for security for the country’s nuclear programme and coordinates with its regional proxies allies in what is described as the “axis of resistance”.

The IRGC, however, is also deeply entrenched in Iran’s political and economic structures. Its economic role expanded during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, as it handled engineering and logistics to sustain Iran’s war effort. War against whom you might ask? Firms affiliated with the IRGC reportedly have contracts in key sectors such as Iran’s natural resources, transport, infrastructure, telecommunications, and mining.

Iranian officials call this the “resistance economy” and say this is part of how the country has circumvented sanctions.
 

Blackleaf

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Hezbollah drones attack RAF base as USA vents anger at Britain for not joining in the attacks on Iran

Not only is in an attack on the RAF but it's also an attack on British territory

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Akrotiri and Dhekelia on the island of Cyprus is a British Overseas Territory


The British have played no part in the American and Israeli strikes against Iran, which has apparently angered the Americans who wanted the British to join in.

As Trump's anger at the British grows, Starmer has attempted to justify his decision not to get involved.

But then Hezbollah launched a drone strike on RAF Akrotiri, in the British Overseas Territory of Akrotiri and Dhekelia on the island of Cyprus.

Will this get the British alongside the Americans and Israelis?

 
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Ron in Regina

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Well, damned if you do &/or still attacked by Iranian proxy Hezbollah if you don’t.
As Trump's anger at the British grows, Starmer has attempted to justify his decision not to get involved.

But then Hezbollah launched a drone strike on RAF Akrotiri, in the British Overseas Territory of Akrotiri and Dhekelia on the island of Cyprus.
Britain “could” just roll up in the Mediterranean and retaliate against Hezbollah independent of either Israel or America Trump, forging its own path with a clear conscience that it stood by its own morals and ethics and legal principles, but still rolled in to take names and kick ass when it had sand kicked in its face. FAFO sorta thing.

(I’ve heard rumours that Britain has a navy, and that Hezbollah embedded in Lebanon is a country that borders on….a sea…see?)
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Blackleaf

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Well, damned if you do &/or still attacked by Iranian proxy Hezbollah if you don’t.

Britain “could” just roll up in the Mediterranean and retaliate against Hezbollah independent of either Israel or America Trump, forging its own path with a clear conscience that it stood by its own morals and ethics and legal principles, but still rolled in to take names and kick ass when it had sand kicked in its face.

(I’ve heard rumours that Britain has a navy, and that Hezbollah embedded in Lebanon is a country that borders on….a sea…see?)
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Yes, British territory is situated on Cyprus, not far from Lebanon, and in that British territory there is an RAF base, which Hezbollah just attacked by drones from Lebanon.

The problem we have is that we have Keir Starmer, not Winston Churchill, as Prime Minister.
 

Blackleaf

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Reform UK: Prime Minister poses a threat to NATO

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Reform UK's Nigel Farage and Robert Jenrick have held a press conference.

The leader of of the Right-wing party Farage said that Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer is putting NATO at risk for not supporting the Americans in Iran.

However, Starmer has allowed the Americans to use British bases for their operations.

Reform UK lead the British polls and look set to win the next General Election...

 

Retired_Can_Soldier

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I see young Iranians celebrating the fall of the Islamic Revolution. Time for Islam to join the rest of the world in the 21st century or be bombed back to the stone ages.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
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Yes, British territory is situated on Cyprus, not far from Lebanon, and in that British territory there is an RAF base, which Hezbollah just attacked by drones from Lebanon.

The problem we have is that we have Keir Starmer, not Winston Churchill, as Prime Minister.
I do actually understand where Starmer is coming from. Did the US really have a legal basis under imminent threat to invade Iran? That’s Keir Starmer’s hold back and hesitation.

That was then, before Hezbollah attacked British soil on Cyprus, which is a different situation altogether. Hezbollah in Lebanon are Iranian proxies, much of the Middle East didn’t wanna get involved directly for exactly the same reason, but…

On Monday, a joint statement from the body, which represents Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, said they will do whatever they must to defend their security and territories, reserving the right to respond to what they described as “heinous” and “treacherous Iranian attacks.”
 

Ron in Regina

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"The strait (of Hormuz) is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze," Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the Guards commander-in-chief, ⁠said in remarks carried by state media.
Well, Iranian oil accounts for approximately 12% to 15% of China's total crude oil imports. While official customs data often masks these, Iran's exports to China reached around 1.38 to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025, making China the purchaser of over 80% of Iran's oil.

But Wait! There’s more😳! A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would immediately threaten over 40% of China's total seaborne crude oil imports, as roughly 38% to 43.5% of China's oil supply passes through this narrow waterway. As the world's largest oil importer, this disruption would halt a significant portion of Middle Eastern energy supplies, heavily impacting China's energy security.
An Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior official said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported.
Hmmm…Iran closed the Strait. How will China respond? “Russian oil will be the likely substitute if that materialises,” June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities said.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said China had not been notified in advance of the military operation and was watching the developments with concern. Some 3,000 Chinese nationals have been evacuated from Iran, she added, while at least one Chinese citizen was killed in the bombing of the Iranian capital.

As with heavily sanctioned Venezuelan oil, China was a major buyer of Iranian crude. Disruptions to this supply could hurt small-scale Chinese refiners that specialize in oil that cannot go to market in much of the world. But the broader Chinese economy should be resilient to any immediate shocks from the war in Iran, said Wang Yiwei, a professor of international affairs at Renmin University in Beijing.

“China already has massive petroleum reserves, plus new energy sources now account for about one-third of our structure,” he said. “On land, Russia is stable, and combined with our large petroleum reserves and new energy, I feel we’ve already made preparations for the worst-case scenarios.”

Mr. Trump is scheduled to visit China at the end of this month. The U.S. President may be hoping that by killing Mr. Khamenei and destabilizing the regime, he’ll be able to remove Iran from the agenda and thus “have more bargaining chips,” Prof. Wang said. “But I don’t think that’s something China is afraid of.” Asked Monday whether Mr. Trump’s visit would go ahead, Ms. Mao said the two sides were “maintaining communication on this issue.”
The country now facing the most consequential near-term economic and strategic test is China, whose dependence on global energy flows makes it immediately vulnerable to disruption even as its long-term planning appears increasingly validated by precisely this kind of geopolitical shock.

But…but what about what Mrs Meow claimed?

China's situation is further complicated by its reliance on discounted Iranian crude acquired under sanctions conditions. Those purchases (along with those from Venezuela) provided Beijing with economic advantages, but they also tethered part of China's energy security to politically fragile suppliers.

Any sustained disruption to Iranian exports forces Chinese refiners into sharper competition for replacement barrels in already constrained markets. In the short term, instability in the Gulf represents genuine economic pain for China rather than strategic opportunity.
Energy investors dumped assets when world-wide markets opened on the first day of trading following the war’s start and oil prices jumped to nearly $80 a barrel.

The news seemed bleak: Traffic at Hormuz Strait all-but halted following threats from Iran.

Qatar, the Gulf’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, was hit with Iranian drones and stopped production.

Saudi Arabia announced that its oil giant, Aramco, also halted operations in its largest oil refinery at Ras Tanura, which produces 550,000 barrels a day.

The mullahs seem to calculate that by attacking neighbors it could raise global pressures on President Trump to end the war quickly. They might have miscalculated. America, now the world’s top oil producer and a net exporter, can withstand world market turmoil much better than it could in previous decades.
Iran is home to the world’s fourth largest proven oil reserves, holding up to 170bn barrels of oil, or about 9% of all global crude. It is behind only Venezuela America, Saudi Arabia and Canada as the largest country by domestic oil reserves.
This isn’t factoring in the rest of the Middle East if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz either.
It (Iran) is the fourth largest oil producer in Opec and one of the largest crude exporters in the world. It also has the world’s second largest proven gas reserves, with about one-sixth of global gas.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman along Iran’s southern coast, has not been formally declared closed? Oh…?

But it does not need to be. Tanker traffic has largely halted regardless, as shipping companies avoid the route to limit the risk of damage. In practice, the effect is the same. “Whether the strait is closed by force or rendered inaccessible by risk avoidance, the impact on flows is largely the same,” Jorge Leon, senior vice-president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy said.

In a bid to cushion the shock, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allied nations agreed on Sunday to raise output by 260,000 barrels per day: a larger-than-expected move that nonetheless falls well short of offsetting a full Hormuz disruption. With global demand exceeding 100 million barrels per day, the additional supply barely registers.

The conflict comes as global energy markets are being buffeted by reduced US oil production due to severe winter weather, while Russia’s output – already heavily sanctioned by Washington and its allies – has been further disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

(Canada has contributed its part above in the last decade in electing four consecutive liberal governments)

“The conflict has spread to nearby countries, such as Qatar and the UAE, which are crucial nodes in world energy supply. I anticipate a period of added uncertainty and volatility in the coming months, with likely jumps in energy prices, along with the possibility of other commodities” somebody somewhere probably said.