Build it, and they will come. Going to need a lot more when the liberals get turfed.
The Tarriff Hype.
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Sweeping tariffs could be 3% hit to Canadian economy, even with carve-outs: Report
Author of the article:Canadian Press
Canadian Press
Sammy Hudes
Published Jan 21, 2025 • Last updated 1 day ago • 4 minute read
TORONTO — A CIBC report says sweeping tariffs imposed by the U.S. could cost the Canadian economy as much as 3.25 per cent, even factoring in possible exemptions for the oil and gas sector.
An analysis published Tuesday examined four potential scenarios in which U.S. President Donald Trump slaps new taxes on goods imported from Canada, ranging from 10 to 20 per cent and with possible carve-outs for key industries.
Speaking with reporters on Monday evening, Trump said he’s thinking about hitting Canada and Mexico with 25 per cent tariffs on Feb. 1.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said Canada would respond and that “everything is on the table.”
The CIBC report said a 20 per cent tariff that excludes commodities — which make up around 46 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. — would still result in a GDP hit of 3.25 per cent.
Under a more conservative scenario where only a 10 per cent tariff is applied and excludes both commodities and the auto sector, the impact to the Canadian economy would be around 1.35 per cent. That hypothetical would exempt roughly 60 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S.
The report suggested the Trump administration might not want to tax those sectors as they rely heavily on close integration with Canadian counterparts. It noted the oil and gas and auto sectors represent 28 and 14 per cent, respectively, of total Canadian exports to the U.S.
“Doing so would come at a key cost to American jobs, contradict Trump’s cheap energy initiatives, and materially increase inflation,” it said.
“Realistically, we do not believe a permanent 25 per cent sweeping tariff is a credible threat in the immediate future _ implementation hurdles, negotiation, and the high risk of retaliation in this scenario makes it little feasible that a trade war will get that far — at least in our opinion anyways.”
Trump has appeared undeterred in previous remarks about his tariff threat, telling reporters earlier this month “we don’t need their cars and we don’t need the other products.”
But while Trump had been threatening to impose punishing tariffs on Canada on his first day in office, he opted instead on inauguration day to announce a plan to study alleged unfair trade practices.
The president signed an executive order directing that the study be completed by April 1.
The CIBC analysis was based solely on potential effects of an initial tariff, rather than the combined impact of any retaliatory measures.
At a cabinet retreat in Montebello, Que., Trudeau said Tuesday the federal government is focused on avoiding tariffs but that Canada is prepared to reply if they are implemented.
He added that if Trump wants to usher in a “golden age” for the U.S., he’ll need the energy, critical minerals and resources that Canada is ready to provide.
A separate report published Tuesday by TD Economics highlighted the importance of the Canada-U.S. trade relationship to both countries, along with likely consequences of such protectionist stances.
The study by economists Marc Ercolao and Andrew Foran said the president’s recent claim about Canada-U.S. auto trade (“They make 20 per cent of our cars,” Trump said at a Jan. 7 press conference) exaggerates the share of vehicles sold in the U.S. that are produced in Canada by about 10 percentage points.
“The U.S. could conceivably look to shift this production stateside, but (faces) significant near-to-medium term challenges to replacing Canada’s annual exports of around 1.5 million units,” they wrote.
The authors also pointed out the importance of Canadian energy exports to the U.S., which are responsible “for all of the U.S. trade deficit with Canada.”
The U.S. would have a trade surplus with Canada of around $60 billion without the oil, natural gas and power sold by Canada to its southern neighbour.
“Remove Canadian energy exports from the equation and the trade story flips,” the report said.
While Trump has claimed the U.S. subsidizes Canada to the tune of US$200 billion in the context of trade between the two countries, Ercolao and Foran said it’s “unclear where President Trump or his team derived this number.”
They said the figure is roughly four to five times larger than officially reported statistics surrounding the U.S.’s trade deficit with Canada.
“In any event, a trade deficit is not a subsidy. That would ring true, if for example, the U.S. government transferred US$45 billion annually to Canadian companies out of goodwill, but Americans are receiving value for the dollars spent in the form of goods and services,” the report said.
“The trade deficit the U.S. runs with Canada reflects their economic outperformance and above-average spending of Americans that’s driving a hunger for energy products.”
torontosun.com
Author of the article:Canadian Press
Canadian Press
Sammy Hudes
Published Jan 21, 2025 • Last updated 1 day ago • 4 minute read
TORONTO — A CIBC report says sweeping tariffs imposed by the U.S. could cost the Canadian economy as much as 3.25 per cent, even factoring in possible exemptions for the oil and gas sector.
An analysis published Tuesday examined four potential scenarios in which U.S. President Donald Trump slaps new taxes on goods imported from Canada, ranging from 10 to 20 per cent and with possible carve-outs for key industries.
Speaking with reporters on Monday evening, Trump said he’s thinking about hitting Canada and Mexico with 25 per cent tariffs on Feb. 1.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said Canada would respond and that “everything is on the table.”
The CIBC report said a 20 per cent tariff that excludes commodities — which make up around 46 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. — would still result in a GDP hit of 3.25 per cent.
Under a more conservative scenario where only a 10 per cent tariff is applied and excludes both commodities and the auto sector, the impact to the Canadian economy would be around 1.35 per cent. That hypothetical would exempt roughly 60 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S.
The report suggested the Trump administration might not want to tax those sectors as they rely heavily on close integration with Canadian counterparts. It noted the oil and gas and auto sectors represent 28 and 14 per cent, respectively, of total Canadian exports to the U.S.
“Doing so would come at a key cost to American jobs, contradict Trump’s cheap energy initiatives, and materially increase inflation,” it said.
“Realistically, we do not believe a permanent 25 per cent sweeping tariff is a credible threat in the immediate future _ implementation hurdles, negotiation, and the high risk of retaliation in this scenario makes it little feasible that a trade war will get that far — at least in our opinion anyways.”
Trump has appeared undeterred in previous remarks about his tariff threat, telling reporters earlier this month “we don’t need their cars and we don’t need the other products.”
But while Trump had been threatening to impose punishing tariffs on Canada on his first day in office, he opted instead on inauguration day to announce a plan to study alleged unfair trade practices.
The president signed an executive order directing that the study be completed by April 1.
The CIBC analysis was based solely on potential effects of an initial tariff, rather than the combined impact of any retaliatory measures.
At a cabinet retreat in Montebello, Que., Trudeau said Tuesday the federal government is focused on avoiding tariffs but that Canada is prepared to reply if they are implemented.
He added that if Trump wants to usher in a “golden age” for the U.S., he’ll need the energy, critical minerals and resources that Canada is ready to provide.
A separate report published Tuesday by TD Economics highlighted the importance of the Canada-U.S. trade relationship to both countries, along with likely consequences of such protectionist stances.
The study by economists Marc Ercolao and Andrew Foran said the president’s recent claim about Canada-U.S. auto trade (“They make 20 per cent of our cars,” Trump said at a Jan. 7 press conference) exaggerates the share of vehicles sold in the U.S. that are produced in Canada by about 10 percentage points.
“The U.S. could conceivably look to shift this production stateside, but (faces) significant near-to-medium term challenges to replacing Canada’s annual exports of around 1.5 million units,” they wrote.
The authors also pointed out the importance of Canadian energy exports to the U.S., which are responsible “for all of the U.S. trade deficit with Canada.”
The U.S. would have a trade surplus with Canada of around $60 billion without the oil, natural gas and power sold by Canada to its southern neighbour.
“Remove Canadian energy exports from the equation and the trade story flips,” the report said.
While Trump has claimed the U.S. subsidizes Canada to the tune of US$200 billion in the context of trade between the two countries, Ercolao and Foran said it’s “unclear where President Trump or his team derived this number.”
They said the figure is roughly four to five times larger than officially reported statistics surrounding the U.S.’s trade deficit with Canada.
“In any event, a trade deficit is not a subsidy. That would ring true, if for example, the U.S. government transferred US$45 billion annually to Canadian companies out of goodwill, but Americans are receiving value for the dollars spent in the form of goods and services,” the report said.
“The trade deficit the U.S. runs with Canada reflects their economic outperformance and above-average spending of Americans that’s driving a hunger for energy products.”
Sweeping tariffs could be 3% hit to Canadian economy, even with carve-outs: Report
A CIBC report says tariffs imposed by the U.S. could cost the Canadian economy as much as 3.25%, even factoring in possible exemptions.
Cheap knockoff.
O! East is East and West is West
And never the twain shall meet
'Til Earth and sky at last will stand
At God's great judgment seat
But there is neither East nor West, North nor South
Border, nor breed, nor birth
When two strong men stand face to face
Though they come from the ends of the Earth
--Kipling
"Do you like Kipling?"
"I don't know. I've never kipled."
“We have a tremendous deficit with Canada. We’re not going to have that anymore. We can’t do it,” Mr. Trump said in a virtual appearance at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “You can always become a state, and if you’re a state, we won’t have a deficit. We won’t have to tariff you.”
(Not mentioning illegal border crossing of either migrants or drugs?)
Maybe still just the usual old “ throw enough shit at the wall and see what sticks?” routine? The new president has threatened to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian imports as early as Feb. 1. He has also tasked his administration with exploring a range of trade measures, including tariffs, aimed at reducing America’s trade deficit with other countries. The deadline for these studies is April 1.
He repeated the incorrect claim that the U.S. has a “$200-billion or $250-billion” trade deficit with Canada. In fact, the latest data suggests the annual U.S. trade deficit in goods with Canada is around $100-billion. This number shrinks to around $65-billion when services are included, as the U.S. sells more services to Canada than it buys, etc…
apple.news
Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. is largely due to oil and gas shipments. Excluding energy, the U.S. has a roughly $60-billion trade surplus with Canada, and the U.S. sends more manufactured goods north across the border than it buys.
(Insert rented Blackhawk helicopters & Chinese drones link here?)
Mr. Trump initially threatened to impose a 25-per-cent tariff on Canadian imports if Ottawa did not address border security concerns about drugs and illegal migration. Ottawa responded by announcing a $1.3-billion package to boost border security. Mr. Trump has nonetheless continued to threaten tariffs, and increasingly focused on the trade imbalance between Canada and the U.S.
In his speech to the World Economic Forum, Mr. Trump also said he wants NATO countries to increase military spending to 5 per cent of GDP, up from the current target of 2 per cent. He also called on OPEC oil producing countries to ramp up production to lower the global cost of oil…& yet, “We don’t need their oil and gas. We have more than anybody.” Etc…
(Not mentioning illegal border crossing of either migrants or drugs?)
Maybe still just the usual old “ throw enough shit at the wall and see what sticks?” routine? The new president has threatened to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian imports as early as Feb. 1. He has also tasked his administration with exploring a range of trade measures, including tariffs, aimed at reducing America’s trade deficit with other countries. The deadline for these studies is April 1.
He repeated the incorrect claim that the U.S. has a “$200-billion or $250-billion” trade deficit with Canada. In fact, the latest data suggests the annual U.S. trade deficit in goods with Canada is around $100-billion. This number shrinks to around $65-billion when services are included, as the U.S. sells more services to Canada than it buys, etc…
Trump reiterates tariff threats against Canada in Davos appearance — The Globe and Mail
In a speech, the U.S. President said Canada could become a U.S. state to avoid tariffs, and suggested that the U.S. doesn’t need Canadian oil and gas, cars or lumber
(Insert rented Blackhawk helicopters & Chinese drones link here?)
Mr. Trump initially threatened to impose a 25-per-cent tariff on Canadian imports if Ottawa did not address border security concerns about drugs and illegal migration. Ottawa responded by announcing a $1.3-billion package to boost border security. Mr. Trump has nonetheless continued to threaten tariffs, and increasingly focused on the trade imbalance between Canada and the U.S.
In his speech to the World Economic Forum, Mr. Trump also said he wants NATO countries to increase military spending to 5 per cent of GDP, up from the current target of 2 per cent. He also called on OPEC oil producing countries to ramp up production to lower the global cost of oil…& yet, “We don’t need their oil and gas. We have more than anybody.” Etc…
A common currency, trade and free movement of labour with Canada like the EU ends all those issues.“We have a tremendous deficit with Canada. We’re not going to have that anymore. We can’t do it,” Mr. Trump said in a virtual appearance at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “You can always become a state, and if you’re a state, we won’t have a deficit. We won’t have to tariff you.”
(Not mentioning illegal border crossing of either migrants or drugs?)
View attachment 27017
Maybe still just the usual old “ throw enough shit at the wall and see what sticks?” routine? The new president has threatened to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian imports as early as Feb. 1. He has also tasked his administration with exploring a range of trade measures, including tariffs, aimed at reducing America’s trade deficit with other countries. The deadline for these studies is April 1.
He repeated the incorrect claim that the U.S. has a “$200-billion or $250-billion” trade deficit with Canada. In fact, the latest data suggests the annual U.S. trade deficit in goods with Canada is around $100-billion. This number shrinks to around $65-billion when services are included, as the U.S. sells more services to Canada than it buys, etc…
Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. is largely due to oil and gas shipments. Excluding energy, the U.S. has a roughly $60-billion trade surplus with Canada, and the U.S. sends more manufactured goods north across the border than it buys.Trump reiterates tariff threats against Canada in Davos appearance — The Globe and Mail
In a speech, the U.S. President said Canada could become a U.S. state to avoid tariffs, and suggested that the U.S. doesn’t need Canadian oil and gas, cars or lumber
(Insert rented Blackhawk helicopters & Chinese drones link here?)
Mr. Trump initially threatened to impose a 25-per-cent tariff on Canadian imports if Ottawa did not address border security concerns about drugs and illegal migration. Ottawa responded by announcing a $1.3-billion package to boost border security. Mr. Trump has nonetheless continued to threaten tariffs, and increasingly focused on the trade imbalance between Canada and the U.S.
In his speech to the World Economic Forum, Mr. Trump also said he wants NATO countries to increase military spending to 5 per cent of GDP, up from the current target of 2 per cent. He also called on OPEC oil producing countries to ramp up production to lower the global cost of oil…& yet, “We don’t need their oil and gas. We have more than anybody.” Etc…
Its coming.
I dont believe there is any choice for the US or Canada. A digital currency. That will screw the cartels and the underworld in general hard. Anyone with cash who cant justify its source when exchanging old for new will be hooped.
OK, the next step. . . can we rope in Mexico and bring it up to our standard (admittedly we're far from perfect, but economically and organizationally we're way ahead of Mexico). Or is that too big an ask?
Beyond Mexico. USD and CAD are used by Caribes and Central American countries so go as far as possible.