Canadian Federal Election Outcome October 20th (or 27th?), 2025.

[Ron in Regina]

We are potentially at least a year out plus to the next Canadian federal election. Just out of curiosities sake, knowing that we have some astute followers of the minutia of Canadian politics here….& that the only poll that matters is the one that happens on the election days themselves…

I’m curious, knowing the twists and turns in electoral politics, just to see more than a year away from the next election…how closely (or how poorly) we lay-Peoplekind can predict the outcome that far out.

I’m guessing probably half a year ago or so, I made the following prediction which I’m quoting below, & I’m gonna stick to it:


I predicted the Conservatives winning with 240 Seats in Oct 2025 a while back & I’m sticking with that prediction. The number just sounds right.

Conservatives 240
Liberals. 47 assuming Trudeau stays
Bloc. 32
NDP. 22
Greens (plural) 2
——————————-
343 total seats (338 + 5)

(Then an unpopular clean up of nine years of the budgets balancing themselves will follow)

Unlike the West when Liberals are in power, Quebec is going to read the tea leaves and the Bloc will lose seats to the Conservatives as Quebec votes strategically to have a voice in Parliament.

The NDP will come out about the same as now but in ridings they never expected, while losing in many they currently have. The NDP will get punished with losses in ridings they currently hold, but disappointed Liberal voters elsewhere will punish the Liberals by voting NDP ‘cuz they can’t bring themselves to vote for a right leaning centrist party .

The Green Party will retain the same two seats in the same two ridings.

Then the Liberals…they’ll still be the official opposition, and will squeal like that dude in Deliverance about how the Conservatives don’t care about Canadians as the fat gets trimmed to try to put out the financial dumpster fire they’ve inherited.

It’ll take into their (Conservatives) second term before foreign investment of significance trusts Canadians enough to roll the dice on investment back into Canada again.

We’ll have missed out on the Natural Gas demand and still be behind the 8-ball regarding pipeline capacity for other petroleum products, but at least we’ll be turning the corner on our economic basket case that we’ve become, with a long ways to go.
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Does anybody else wanna throw their hat in the ring (?) with their best guess, or gut feeling, or whatever prognostication you decide upon to predict the outcome more than a year away for the next Canadian federal election???

(I think it might be funny in hindsight, to see how poorly we all manage in our guess work, myself included)
—————————————————————
Here’s the current (as of today) poles from 338 as a snapshot in time from more than a year out of the next Canadian federal election if it was actually held today…



Anything can happen, from recessions to wars to ethical & sexual political scandals, that we have no way of knowing about in advance beyond Monday morning quarterbacking. What’s your best or worst guesses?

 

[spaminator]

i would like to see the municipal, provincial, and federal electoral terms to be increased to a minimum of 5 years for each electoral term. the party or individual can't call an early election and the opposition can't trigger an election.

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

i would like to see the municipal, provincial, and federal electoral terms to be increased to a minimum of 5 years for each electoral term. the party or individual can't call an early election and the opposition can't trigger an election.

Doesn't work well with minorities. That is what we have now (with 4 years). If you did that you would have to have some runoff system where one party always gets a clear majority. But that is not always what the people want so I think we should stick with what we have -- flawed as it is.

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

It seems that the number of conservative seats in Ontario is swinging wildlly week to week. I think in the end (and coming from Saskatchewan myself I know that kind of sucks) but this will be the key to the next election. Can PP hold Ontario or more correctly can TrueDope regain it?

 

[Serryah]

Trudeau's a fucking moron and will likely lose but Gods help us if PP wins.

 

[Ron in Regina]

Trudeau's a fucking moron and will likely lose but Gods help us if PP wins.

Do you honestly believe PP could be worse than what we’ve had for the better part of a decade (?) to the point where a plea to deities is needed?

If what we have isn’t working, at least try something & someone different.

 

[Serryah]

Do you honestly believe PP could be worse than what we’ve had for the better part of a decade (?) to the point where a plea to deities is needed?

Abso-fucking-lutely.

The man has said nothing about policies nor what he'd do to make things different/better. He has members who are anti-abortion, anti-GLBTQIA+, racist, sexist. What he DOES do is bash Trudeau, attack anyone who asks him legit questions and fool people like you into thinking he's some sort of savior.

If what we have isn’t working, at least try something & someone different.

Agreed.

PP aint' it.

Trudeau ain't it.

We've had both of their parties and neither one has been good for Canada.

Singh ain't it either, though the NDP at least hasn't had the full chance to fuck things up yet.

 

[Ron in Regina]

The man has said nothing about policies nor what he'd do to make things different/better. He has members who are anti-abortion, anti-GLBTQIA+, racist, sexist. What he DOES do is bash Trudeau, attack anyone who asks him legit questions and fool people like you into thinking he's some sort of savior.

I’m still sticking with my prediction:

Conservatives 240
Liberals. 47 assuming Trudeau stays
Bloc. 32
NDP. 22
Greens (plural) 2
——————————-
343 total seats (338 + 5)

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

Abso-fucking-lutely.

The man has said nothing about policies nor what he'd do to make things different/better. He has members who are anti-abortion, anti-GLBTQIA+, racist, sexist. What he DOES do is bash Trudeau, attack anyone who asks him legit questions and fool people like you into thinking he's some sort of savior.



Agreed.

PP aint' it.

Trudeau ain't it.

We've had both of their parties and neither one has been good for Canada.

Singh ain't it either, though the NDP at least hasn't had the full chance to fuck things up yet.

Harper had a lot of the same members. I don't recall too many social unreforms during his terms.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

Do you honestly believe PP could be worse than what we’ve had for the better part of a decade (?) to the point where a plea to deities is needed?

If what we have isn’t working, at least try something & someone different.

Is "not as bad as the current guy" the pinnacle of your desires?

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

Is "not as bad as the current guy" the pinnacle of your desires?

It's the backbone of Canadian politics. If we waited for a truly good guy to be available to oust the current leader, John A. MacDonald would still be our PM.

Isn't that how you work in the states too?

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

It's the backbone of Canadian politics. If we waited for a truly good guy to be available to oust the current leader, John A. MacDonald would still be our PM.

Isn't that how you work in the states too?

So it would appear. I've never much concerned myself with how the parties choose their candidates, but I've always followed Heinlein's advice. . .

"If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for, but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong."

 

[Serryah]

Harper had a lot of the same members. I don't recall too many social unreforms during his terms.

Because - and I never thought I'd say this - Harper was smart enough to know not to push too much for stuff. But a lot of the members of the party who are now against a lot of the 'social things' also never said it out loud/admitted it openly.

And his term you might as well have called it a different time all together.

Now it's part of the "Cool team" to deny women's rights, abortion, GLBTQIA+, etc and more of the party are open to it or are finally saying the stuff they kept quiet, out loud.

 

[Ron in Regina]

Now it's part of the "Cool team" to deny women's rights, abortion, GLBTQIA+, etc and more of the party are open to it or are finally saying the stuff they kept quiet, out loud.

Do you think that, if a non-Liberal/NDP or non-NDP/Liberal party is elected, which sure seems like the direction the wind is blowing, that women's rights, abortion, GLBTQIA+, etc…will be any more threatened than they currently are?

 

[Ron in Regina]

Now it's part of the "Cool team" to deny women's rights, abortion, GLBTQIA+, etc and more of the party are open to it or are finally saying the stuff they kept quiet, out loud.

The two biggest bogeyman scare tactics usually brought out shortly before a Canadian federal election are:
1) Firearms legislation
2) Abortion
Let’s tackle #2 now I guess, since it’s already brought up in this thread. In the below interview, & yes it’s long, but you can start about minute 13, & bail whenever you like…a law professor is asked about the non-understanding clause & abortion:

(I figured this thread would be both fun and funny…to take our wildest guesstimates & prognostications…& see how right or wrong we are with respect to the outcome of our next federal election that still more than a year away)

Care to take a stab at a guess as to the outcome (seat distribution) once the dust settles on the evening of October 20th (or 27th?), 2025?

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

There is a certain social factor at play here. The Cons can, without ever proposing legislation or taking any action, embolden those who are in a position to hinder or trouble people seeking, for example, abortions. If you honestly think there is no way that persons in "the system" can make it a lot harder for people, or contrariwise, a lot easier to do X, you're hopelessly naive.

 

[Ron in Regina]

There is a certain social factor at play here. The Cons can, without ever proposing legislation or taking any action, embolden those who are in a position to hinder or trouble people seeking, for example, abortions. If you honestly think there is no way that persons in "the system" can make it a lot harder for people, or contrariwise, a lot easier to do X, you're hopelessly naive.

Do you think that, if a non-Liberal/NDP or non-NDP/Liberal party is elected, which sure seems like the direction the wind is blowing, that women's rights, abortion, GLBTQIA+, etc…will be any more threatened than they currently are?

Care to take a stab at a guess as to the outcome (seat distribution) once the dust settles on the evening of October 20th (or 27th?), 2025?

???

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

???

I'll take on that last one. . .

The seat distribution will be based on an approximate distribution of population in Canaduh.

Not everything I say, think, and do is in direct response to you, Ron. When it is, I usually quote what it is I'm responding to.

 

[pgs]

Trudeau's a fucking moron and will likely lose but Gods help us if PP wins.

Why ? The Liberals control both the Senate and the Supreme Court , what can PP do ?

 

[pgs]

Abso-fucking-lutely.

The man has said nothing about policies nor what he'd do to make things different/better. He has members who are anti-abortion, anti-GLBTQIA+, racist, sexist. What he DOES do is bash Trudeau, attack anyone who asks him legit questions and fool people like you into thinking he's some sort of savior.



Agreed.

PP aint' it.

Trudeau ain't it.

We've had both of their parties and neither one has been good for Canada.

Singh ain't it either, though the NDP at least hasn't had the full chance to fuck things up yet.

The man has said enough about his policies , you just refuse to listen . Axe the tax , he doesn’t need to say more . You should know when the conservatives set out their policies prior to elections the Liberals just incorporate any that gain traction .