Pollsters vindicated in B.C. election
Four years is a long time to wait for vindication, but pollsters in British Columbia finally got it last night when the results of B.C.'s provincial election closely matched the final polls of the four week campaign.
In 2013, the polls missed the election call dramatically. Surveys suggested the NDP's Adrian Dix would win a wide victory over Christy Clark's Liberals by some seven points. Instead, the Liberals were re-elected and beat the NDP by just over four points.
But in 2017, polls suggested it would be the closest B.C. election in decades and voters didn't disappoint — just two seats and a few thousand votes provincewide separating the B.C. Liberals from the New Democrats.
As of midnight, the B.C. Liberals were narrowly leading in the popular vote with 41 per cent of ballots cast, compared to 39.8 per cent for the NDP. The Greens, at 16.6 per cent, followed in third place with the party's best showing in its history and more than double its performance in 2013.
This matched the polls almost precisely. Five major pollsters (Forum Research, Insights West, Mainstreet Research, Ipsos and the Angus Reid Institute) put out numbers in the last week of the campaign, pegging the NDP's support to be at either 40 or 41 per cent. The Liberals were estimated to have 39, 40 or 41 per cent support among decided voters.
It appears some polls may have slightly underestimated the Liberals, but there were signs the party would be able to out perform their numbers.
The Greens were slightly harder to pin down, but four of the five pollsters set the Greens at either 15 or 17 per cent.
Pollsters vindicated in B.C. election - British Columbia - CBC News
Four years is a long time to wait for vindication, but pollsters in British Columbia finally got it last night when the results of B.C.'s provincial election closely matched the final polls of the four week campaign.
In 2013, the polls missed the election call dramatically. Surveys suggested the NDP's Adrian Dix would win a wide victory over Christy Clark's Liberals by some seven points. Instead, the Liberals were re-elected and beat the NDP by just over four points.
But in 2017, polls suggested it would be the closest B.C. election in decades and voters didn't disappoint — just two seats and a few thousand votes provincewide separating the B.C. Liberals from the New Democrats.
As of midnight, the B.C. Liberals were narrowly leading in the popular vote with 41 per cent of ballots cast, compared to 39.8 per cent for the NDP. The Greens, at 16.6 per cent, followed in third place with the party's best showing in its history and more than double its performance in 2013.
This matched the polls almost precisely. Five major pollsters (Forum Research, Insights West, Mainstreet Research, Ipsos and the Angus Reid Institute) put out numbers in the last week of the campaign, pegging the NDP's support to be at either 40 or 41 per cent. The Liberals were estimated to have 39, 40 or 41 per cent support among decided voters.
It appears some polls may have slightly underestimated the Liberals, but there were signs the party would be able to out perform their numbers.
The Greens were slightly harder to pin down, but four of the five pollsters set the Greens at either 15 or 17 per cent.
Pollsters vindicated in B.C. election - British Columbia - CBC News
