Canada and the US: Whither the common ground?

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
61
48
Ottawa, ON
If Canada is going to build stronger relations with the US, Trudeau will need to find common ground with Trump, but that will be a challenge.

Trump is anti-immigration, Trudeau pro-immigration.

Trump is anti-trade, Trudeau pro-free-trade.

Trump intends to lower taxes and increase spending on the military, and cares little for balanced budgets. Trudeau cares little for balanced budgets too. Okay, some common ground there, but ground we wish they didn't share in common or, better yet, that they both disagreed with. Trudeau could exploit that in that if Trump increases spending and reduces taxes, that could stimulate the US economy and postpone a crash into the future. Trudeau could take advantage of this to ride the wave by reducing expenditure. Unfortunately, Trump's anti-trade stance could make that difficult.

Both Trump and Trudeau appear to want to help the poor. That puts them in the same ball park at least. But the devil is in the details. I figure if they are going to find any common ground, it will be burried somewhere in the long grass of that large ball park.

Another possible point of common ground is that Trump is militarily somewhat non-interventionist. Trudeau tends in the same direction. This could give Trudeau a chance to build trade relations with Russia. Even if Trump has little interest in promoting trade with Russia, at least he's not Russophobic and so would be at worst indifferent to Canada pursuing such trade relations. Besides, Canada might need to compensate for loss of trade with the US if Trump renegotiates NAFTA, so let's take advantage of that.

As Trump decides to ramp up resource exploitation in his own country, Canada's resource industry will inevitably take a hit. With that, there is not even a point in trying to counter the inevitable. Instead, go ahead with a carbon tax but lower other business taxes, income taxes, and value added taxes and let our manufacturing industry shine. As the US extracts more oil and Canada exports less, that will inevitably raise the US dollar relative to the Canadian. This would be a golden opportunity for Canadian manufacturing... unless Trump decides to raise tariffs against it. But if Trump does that, that will also exacerbate inflation in the US, so he might not do it if we're lucky.
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,794
460
83
I agree on immigration but Trump is not actually anti trade and Trudeau's not actually pro free trade.

They both would likely agree to trade but you would need both countries to negotiate a deal.
 

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
61
48
Ottawa, ON
I agree on immigration but Trump is not actually anti trade and Trudeau's not actually pro free trade.

They both would likely agree to trade but you would need both countries to negotiate a deal.

Trump is more protectionist than his predecessors, so any deal will likely lean more towards protectionism. For a populaiton like Canada's, we need all the international trade we can get.

I can't think of any other area of common ground off hand. But for Canada's sake, Trudeau will need to dig deep and find them.

Should Trump insist Canada leave free trade with Mexico and make it just between Canada and the US, one possibility would be to declare our port cities free economic zones that would be free to trade with the world but could face tariffs from the US, while the rest of Canada would have free trade with the US but would agree to a Canada-US trading block with outside tariffs.

That would not be ideal since it would make it difficult for our port cities to trade with the US, but it would at least allow most of Canada to trade with the US. A business in a port city that trades more with the US than the rest of the world would have the option of just moving out of the port city to trade with the US. Meanwhile, Canadian businesses that depend more on trade with the rest of the world could just move into a port city. That could give us the best of both worlds to a degree.

Should Trump pressure Canada to adopt stricter immigration rules to enjoy preferential travel to the US, again we might limit open immigration to Canada's port cities with the rest of Canada conforming to the US immigration rules. With that, the port cities could compensate by adopting truly open borders since they themselves would be bordered off to the rest of Canada with customs gates at their exits.

Another point of common ground between Canada and the US on the tax front: Trudeau did promise to lower taxes on the middle class. I think Trump did the same. So that would be something to look into.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
113,363
12,824
113
Low Earth Orbit
I agree on immigration but Trump is not actually anti trade and Trudeau's not actually pro free trade.

They both would likely agree to trade but you would need both countries to negotiate a deal.

What sort of deal? One that excludes Meixico like the FTA or revamp NAFTA and limit Mexico?
 

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
61
48
Ottawa, ON
What sort of deal? One that excludes Meixico like the FTA or revamp NAFTA and limit Mexico?

Let's be honest. The US represents 10X Canada's population. So if Trump gives Canada an ultimatum, he's got us by the balls and we'll have to accept unless we can think outside of the box.

My recommendation if he forces Canada into a corner is to accept (since we'd have not much choice in the matter anyway) but declare our port cities free economic zones that would stand outside the boundaries of the new Canada-US trading block. That way, businesses that trade mainly by rail or truck between Canada and the US could move out of those cities so as to avoid US tariffs, and our businesses that don't trade much with the US but rely on international trade could move into a port city. It would face US tariffs of course, but if it doesn't trade much with the US anyway, who cares? The FEZ could drop tariffs unilaterally to the rest of the world.
 

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
61
48
Ottawa, ON
The US has no dependencies on Canada?

But Canada depends tremendously on US trade. Of course Canada could engage in a trade war with the US, but it would hurt us more than it would hurt the US, so it's probably not a good idea to go that route.
 

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
61
48
Ottawa, ON
None we couldn't replace in 15 minutes.

Don't be so sure about that. In a trade war, Canada would hurt ten times more than the US would, but the US would still hurt. The question there is, is Trump smart enough to understand this? I honestly don't know the answer to that question. He may be smarter than we realise, just in his own way.

In a trade war between Canada and the US, the economies of US northern border states would be devastated, just like Canada's.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
26,241
9,605
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
Canada is second only (& not by much) to the EU (Which is a Block and
not a country) as America's largest trade partner. We both need each
other, but Canada is the tail to the US dog in this relationship. Canada and
the USA have the advantage of sharing a common border which implies
less expensive transportation costs (Carbon Tax concept aside) over their
other trade partners.

NAFTA helped & harmed both nations in a give & take that any trade deal
agrees to. The US being the Dog (and not the tail) is on the better end of
NAFTA by far so it's really not an overly wise can of worms to reopen for
the US, but after all the political rhetoric, something has to happen even
if its symbolic with more light and slight of hand for appearances than
anything else. It will be interesting, but I'm assuming it'll be much ado
about nothing but with lots of showmanship to appear to be more than it
really is.
 

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
61
48
Ottawa, ON
Trump's successor might not be so keen on Canada building tade relations with Russia. This gives Canada a four-year window to take advantage of this golden opportunity.

One area in which I think Canada should give in in any renogotiation of NAFTA is in Canadian Content rules.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
26,241
9,605
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
But Canada depends tremendously on US trade. Of course Canada could engage in a trade war with the US, but it would hurt us more than it would hurt the US, so it's probably not a good idea to go that route.

A trade war is a lose/lose for both sides. I wouldn't count on that happening.
Too much precedence already established and workable between these
two nations.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
113,363
12,824
113
Low Earth Orbit
But Canada depends tremendously on US trade. Of course Canada could engage in a trade war with the US, but it would hurt us more than it would hurt the US, so it's probably not a good idea to go that route.

Remember when a Canadian switch failed from sunspots and the Northeastern US went black?
 

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
61
48
Ottawa, ON
Trump might try to pressure Canada to increase military spending. I would resist that myself but maybe allow the US to impose high tariffs on Canadian military equipment without retaliation from Canada in exchange for Canada being free to not increase its military spending.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
113,363
12,824
113
Low Earth Orbit
Or this one...

The Northeast blackout of 2003 was a widespread power outage that occurred throughout parts of the Northeastern and Midwestern United States and the Canadian province of Ontario on Thursday, August 14, 2003, just after 4:10 p.m. EDT.[1]

Some power was restored by 11 p.m. Many others did not get their power back until two days later. In more remote areas it took nearly a week to restore power.[2] At the time, it was the world's second most widespread blackout in history, after the 1999 Southern Brazil blackout.[3][4] The outage, which was much more widespread than the Northeast Blackout of 1965, affected an estimated 10 million people in Ontario and 45 million people in eight U.S. states.

The blackout's primary cause was a software bug in the alarm system at a control room of the FirstEnergy Corporation, located in Ohio. A lack of alarm left operators unaware of the need to re-distribute power after overloaded transmission lines hit unpruned foliage, which triggered a race condition in the control software. What would have been a manageable local blackout cascaded into massive widespread distress on the electric grid.
 

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
61
48
Ottawa, ON
Remember when a Canadian switch failed from sunspots and the Northeastern US went black?

Oh yes, a trade war would definitely hurt the US too, of course. I doubt it would come down to a trade war. I give Trump more credit than that. However, if it did come down to a trade war, my proposal would be to introduce an export tariff by weight (X$ per Y kgs) as the most effective pressure tactic against the US. It would devastate Canada's resource sector, but it would be the most painful bite Canada could give the US.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
113,363
12,824
113
Low Earth Orbit
Oh yes, a trade war would definitely hurt the US too, of course. I doubt it would come down to a trade war. I give Trump more credit than that. However, if it did come down to a trade war, my proposal would be to introduce an export tariff by weight (X$ per Y kgs) as the most effective pressure tactic against the US. It would devastate Canada's resource sector, but it would be the most painful bite Canada could give the US.

Far from it. Food would hit them the hardest.
 

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
61
48
Ottawa, ON
Far from it. Food would hit them the hardest.

A X dollars per Y kg export tariff would affect Canadian food exports to the US too, no?

About the only Canafian exports it wouldn't affect directly would be computer software, apps, copyrights, and patents abd financial trandactions and services since they have no weight to them. On the contrary, they would benefit and boom due to the low CAD. High-end products probably would too.
 
Last edited: