Climate change: Carbon dioxide emissions reach record high

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
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Climate change: Carbon dioxide emissions reach record high

Emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide reached an all-time high last year, further reducing the chances that the world could avoid a dangerous rise in global average temperature by 2020, according to the International Energy Agency, the energy analysis group for the world’s most industrialized states.

Global emissions of carbon-dioxide, or CO2, from fossil-fuel combustion hit a record high of 31.6 gigatonnes in 2011, according to the IEA’s preliminary estimates, an increase of 1 Gt, or 3.2% from 2010.

The burning of coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%).

According to the vast majority of climatologists, the rapid rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere because of industrialization over the last 150 years has led to an increase in global average temperature by about 1 degree Celsius.

Scientists and the IEA contend that countries need to keep the global average temperature from rising by more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in order to avoid profound damage to life on Earth, from water and food scarcity to rising sea levels to greater incidence and severity of disease.

Last year’s jump in carbon emissions sets the world even more firmly on the path to hurtle past a two-degree Celsius increase. “The new data provide further evidence that the door to a 2C trajectory is about to close,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol.

China is the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, followed by the United States, the European Union and India. Although China’s emissions rose significantly because of its coal consumption, the increase would have been more substantial had the country not taken steps over the last decade to improve energy efficiency and deploy cleaner power sources, Birol said.

Carbon dioxide emissions in the United States fell by 1.7%, or 92 megatonnes, in 2011, as more power companies switched to natural gas from coal and a mild winter reduced heating demand. Emissions in the United States have now fallen by 7.7% since 2006, according to the IEA, which called it “the largest reduction of all countries or regions.”

The drop in U.S. emissions is a result of lower gasoline use and the move to gas from coal in the power sector.

Carbon emissions hit record; not looking good for global warming - latimes.com
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Water vapor is the most important gas for both issues according to the IPCC's models. The current increase of CO2 is not enough to cause the driving of temperatures by itself and could not explain the warming alone. Water vapor is added, at increasing levels and with only a positive feedback in order to make this temperature increase a man made possibility. Without the increased water vapor, the issue would need to be from sources other than man induced CO2. Even the IPCC admits that the issues with water vapor are not well understood in their 2007 addition of the climate report but are very important for the overall warming. This increased water vapor also has a negative feedback that is ignored by most models and why the IPCC predictions are far higher than the temperature we are experiencing since 2007.

Without water vapor CO2 is harmless AND there is no way to properly model water vapour because there is no way to base models on paleo sources.
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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Right, which is why C02 emissions are the #1 driver of climate change right now.
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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Well anyway, we'll agree to disagree.

But how are going to reduce C02 emissions?
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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Water vapour isn't the problem, it's a symptom of rising C02.

So we need to determine how to reduce C02 levels.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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CO2 is secondary. If you can find a way to boost geomagnetics we wouldn't have water vapour issues.
 
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mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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Why do we need another thread to go in the same circles?

The other one appears to have a negative slant and deals with policy, whereas this one should be strictly about the science.

CO2 is secondary.

Not true.

The cause of increasing water vapour is rising C02 levels.


The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere exists in direct relation to the temperature. If you increase the temperature, more water evaporates and becomes vapor, and vice versa. So when something else causes a temperature increase (such as extra CO2 from fossil fuels), more water evaporates. Then, since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, this additional water vapor causes the temperature to go up even further—a positive feedback.

Explaining how the water vapor greenhouse effect works