Dollar Declines for a 3rd Week as Economic Growth Stalls

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Canada Dollar Declines for a 3rd Week as Economic Growth Stalls

Canada’s dollar depreciated for the third straight week, the longest string of losses since August, as a rally in higher-risk assets faded, stoking demand for havens such as the yen, U.S. dollar and Swiss franc.

The currency touched the lowest level this month yesterday, reflecting diminished confidence in the nation’s economy after reports during the week on retail sales and consumer prices trailed median forecasts. Futures trading shows a reduced likelihood of interest-rate increases. Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will present the government’s budget on March 29.

“The Canadian dollar has been underperforming against its major counterparts,” said David Song, a currency analyst in New York at DailyFX.com, the research unit of FXCM Inc. (FXCM), an online currency-trading service. “It seems like the Bank of Canada will be on hold for a prolonged period.”

The loonie, nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell 0.6 percent on the week to 99.78 cents against the U.S. dollar yesterday in Toronto. One Canadian dollar purchases $1.0022.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.5 percent this week, it’s first decline since the five days ended Feb. 10. The MSCI World Index lost 1 percent. Equities are the primary driver of the Canadian dollar’s performance, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The correlation coefficient between the loonie and the S&P 500 was 0.75 yesterday, versus 0.51 for oil, 0.61 for copper and 0.46 for the U.S.-Canada two-year yield spread, 30-day correlation data show. A coefficient of 1 means the measures move in lockstep.

Canada Dollar Declines for a 3rd Week as Economic Growth Stalls - Businessweek
 

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UPDATE 3-Canada retail sales disappoint, GDP dip seen | Reuters

Retail sales increased by 0.5 percent in January and would have fallen had it not been for a healthy auto sector, according to Statistics Canada data on Thursday. This was much less than the 1.7 month-on-month rise that market operators had expected.

The data - which helped push the Canadian dollar down to a two-week low - follows figures that showed a 1.0 percent drop in wholesale trade in January and a 0.9 percent decrease in factory sales.

"Outside of the spirited gain in auto sales (a pace which cannot last long), Canadian retail sales continue to lose momentum. High household debt levels and weak employment growth suggest this trend will persist through early 2012," said Benjamin Reitzes of BMO Capital Markets Economics.

"With the final piece of January's GDP puzzle in place ... it looks as though the Canadian economy contracted slightly to start the year."