What would be needed to support a subway?
Ridership forecast models are useful for relatively short time horizons, but beyond about 25 years, their assumptions and inputs are too dependent on uncertainties. Beyond that, the City should focus on where it wants development to happen and how it can change travel behaviour to align with its long-term transit building plans.
In the end, City Planning staff concluded that in the absence of reliable long-term ridership forecasts, support for a subway at this juncture would be based on a long-term city-building vision.
Building the subway would have to be aligned with other city-building initiatives:
- Zoning should be in place to support the forecast development within walking distance of the subway stations – and more, if it can be supported as good planning;
- The zoning should permit or even require development that consists of a mix of uses to support two-way ridership;
- The use of Development Permits to facilitate development aligned with transit infrastructure;
- Requiring high density development at subway stations when the stations are built;
- Significant growth in employment in the Sheppard corridor, supported by a focussed strategy to bring jobs to the North York and Scarborough Centres and Consumers Road Business Park, including incentives for private developers and a City policy to put its own facilities and jobs in the Corridor.
And, of course, a sustainable funding plan would also need to be in place.
Unless these conditions can be met, a subway is not warranted, and the LRT would be a viable option to meet transit needs in the corridor over the next 20 – 30 years, and may be sufficient beyond that. City staff is concerned, however, that the LRT would under-perform as a City-building option if it doesn't link to the Scarborough Centre.
http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2012/cc/bgrd/backgroundfile-45908.pdf
