Liberals now pulling away from Cons into majority territory
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Yeah....I saw piles of them in Costco.
Not a good sign.
That would come as a surprise to my wife of 38 years.
Wow, when I go latent, I REALLY go latent.
Liberals up, Conservatives stable, NDP down in 2014
It's that time of year again - the time to take stock of the year that is coming to a close. And from a polling perspective, that means comparing 2014 to the last few years. By that measure, it was a good year for the Liberals and a bad one for the New Democrats, while the Conservatives managed to slow their decline, perhaps even tread water, as we enter a climactic election year.
The past year has been an interesting one. Granted, it was quieter at the federal level than previous years. No election was held as in 2011, and no major party leaders were named, as in 2012 and 2013. The Bloc Québécois did get a new leader in Mario Beaulieu, however, and as we'll see this has not been a positive development for the party.
It was a much more exciting year at the provincial level, as Canada's two largest provinces went to the polls. And both of these elections had their own surprises. The Parti Québécois went into the Quebec election hoping for a majority government, and they ended up almost relegated to third spot. The Liberals and Progressive Conservatives were neck-and-neck as the Ontario campaign began, only for the Liberals to emerge with a majority government. The election in New Brunswick went as expected, but nevertheless it is something that first-term governments were defeated for the second time in a row. And then there was the Toronto race.
Let's take a look at how the federal parties did in 2014, compared to previous years. I did this exercise in 2012 and 2013 as well. It is a simple average of all the polls conducted in a given year, providing a very macro-look at the political landscape and where the parties are going.
t was a rather stable year nationwide, as a total of 45 polls were conducted. In 2012, the New Democrats were able to take top spot for a few months, before losing it to the Conservatives. In 2013, the Liberals surged ahead of the Tories to move into first. But in 2014, the order of the parties never changed from start to finish
The Liberals averaged 35.9% support in 2014, a gain of 3.1 points over their average support in 2013 and part of a consistent trend of growth since the 2011 election (note that in this chart, as in all following ones, the 2011 year refers to polls taken that year after the federal election).
The Conservatives averaged 30.0% support unchanged from 2013. Still, it is confirms the drop the party has experienced since their majority victory in 2011.
(Note: An earlier version of this post had the Conservatives at 29.9% in the 2014 average. A new poll by Abacus Data, released since I wrote this post originally, bumped them up to 30%. As that tied their 2013 performance, rather than putting them 0.1 point down, I thought that was significant enough to update. I haven't bothered to update the regional numbers below with the Abacus results, as the effect was never more than one or two tenths of a percentage point, and did not change any of the trend lines. The updated numbers will be reflected in any future annual reviews, however.)
The New Democrats took a step backwards, falling 2.3 points to an average of 22.4% for 2014. That is their second consecutive annual drop, after putting up some good numbers in the second half of 2011 and throughout 2012.
The Greens have been very steady over the last few years, averaging 5.5% support in 2014. That is little different from their polling in 2012 and 2013.
ThreeHundredEight.com: Liberals up, Conservatives stable, NDP down in 2014
It's that time of year again - the time to take stock of the year that is coming to a close. And from a polling perspective, that means comparing 2014 to the last few years. By that measure, it was a good year for the Liberals and a bad one for the New Democrats, while the Conservatives managed to slow their decline, perhaps even tread water, as we enter a climactic election year.
The past year has been an interesting one. Granted, it was quieter at the federal level than previous years. No election was held as in 2011, and no major party leaders were named, as in 2012 and 2013. The Bloc Québécois did get a new leader in Mario Beaulieu, however, and as we'll see this has not been a positive development for the party.
It was a much more exciting year at the provincial level, as Canada's two largest provinces went to the polls. And both of these elections had their own surprises. The Parti Québécois went into the Quebec election hoping for a majority government, and they ended up almost relegated to third spot. The Liberals and Progressive Conservatives were neck-and-neck as the Ontario campaign began, only for the Liberals to emerge with a majority government. The election in New Brunswick went as expected, but nevertheless it is something that first-term governments were defeated for the second time in a row. And then there was the Toronto race.
Let's take a look at how the federal parties did in 2014, compared to previous years. I did this exercise in 2012 and 2013 as well. It is a simple average of all the polls conducted in a given year, providing a very macro-look at the political landscape and where the parties are going.
t was a rather stable year nationwide, as a total of 45 polls were conducted. In 2012, the New Democrats were able to take top spot for a few months, before losing it to the Conservatives. In 2013, the Liberals surged ahead of the Tories to move into first. But in 2014, the order of the parties never changed from start to finish
The Liberals averaged 35.9% support in 2014, a gain of 3.1 points over their average support in 2013 and part of a consistent trend of growth since the 2011 election (note that in this chart, as in all following ones, the 2011 year refers to polls taken that year after the federal election).
The Conservatives averaged 30.0% support unchanged from 2013. Still, it is confirms the drop the party has experienced since their majority victory in 2011.
(Note: An earlier version of this post had the Conservatives at 29.9% in the 2014 average. A new poll by Abacus Data, released since I wrote this post originally, bumped them up to 30%. As that tied their 2013 performance, rather than putting them 0.1 point down, I thought that was significant enough to update. I haven't bothered to update the regional numbers below with the Abacus results, as the effect was never more than one or two tenths of a percentage point, and did not change any of the trend lines. The updated numbers will be reflected in any future annual reviews, however.)
The New Democrats took a step backwards, falling 2.3 points to an average of 22.4% for 2014. That is their second consecutive annual drop, after putting up some good numbers in the second half of 2011 and throughout 2012.
The Greens have been very steady over the last few years, averaging 5.5% support in 2014. That is little different from their polling in 2012 and 2013.
ThreeHundredEight.com: Liberals up, Conservatives stable, NDP down in 2014
yes, on the support averages presented... little has changed from 2013. Including the articles statements on approval ratings, Mulcair's number rose significantly, while Trudeau's and Harper's differed little from 2013.
Trudeau's approval rating dipped slightly from 2013, when it averaged 45.6%.
Thomas Mulcair's approval rating was up by almost six points, increasing from 36.4% in 2013 to 42.3% in 2014.
Harper's approval rating was up by just 0.7 points to 32.6%
Thomas Mulcair's approval rating was up by almost six points, increasing from 36.4% in 2013 to 42.3% in 2014.
Harper's approval rating was up by just 0.7 points to 32.6%
Liberals up, Conservatives stable, NDP down in 2014
It was a rather stable year nationwide, as a total of 45 polls were conducted. In 2012, the New Democrats were able to take top spot for a few months, before losing it to the Conservatives. In 2013, the Liberals surged ahead of the Tories to move into first. But in 2014, the order of the parties never changed from start to finish
The Liberals averaged 35.9% support in 2014, a gain of 3.1 points over their average support in 2013 and part of a consistent trend of growth since the 2011 election (note that in this chart, as in all following ones, the 2011 year refers to polls taken that year after the federal election).
The Conservatives averaged 30.0% support unchanged from 2013. Still, it is confirms the drop the party has experienced since their majority victory in 2011.
The New Democrats took a step backwards, falling 2.3 points to an average of 22.4% for 2014. That is their second consecutive annual drop, after putting up some good numbers in the second half of 2011 and throughout 2012.
The Greens have been very steady over the last few years, averaging 5.5% support in 2014. That is little different from their polling in 2012 and 2013.
ThreeHundredEight.com: Liberals up, Conservatives stable, NDP down in 2014
Dec 29th numbers.
How little has changed.
REALLY??????
Remember how you started this thread?
Six months ago the Liberals were 10.6 points ahead.
Trudeau has managed to lose 3.8 points, and the CPC has gained 4.3, lowering the gap to 2.5 points.
Extrapolate.........if this trend continues, by July 2015, within 3 months of an election, the Libs will be at 31.9, the CPC at 36.7, approaching majority territory.
Personally, I doubt the Liberals will be that lucky by election day, as Justin gets chewed up in the campaign and debates.
The boy is a dumba$$. Unfit doesn't even begin to describe his lack of ability.
Isolationist path: Canada’s military policy would differ much under a Trudeau government | National Post
Trudeau's foreign policy:
Roll over for Putin.
Roll over for ISIS.
Roll over for the United Nations.
Roll us over
In the clover
Roll us over, lay us down
And do us again.
If the federal election were held today, 35% of voters would vote Tory, according to the latest Ipsos Reid poll. With new boundaries coming in 70 ridings, the Conservatives are closer to a majority government with that 35% than ever before, said Ipsos Reid’s John Wright.
“If you took the 2011 numbers and applied them to the new riding situation immediately — without having a campaign or anything — the Conservatives already gain 22 extra seats as a result of that,” Mr. Wright said.
The Liberals have fallen three points since December, to 31%. Thomas Mulcair and the NDP remain steady at 24%, down seven points since the 2011 federal election.
The increased support for the Conservative party could be reflective of the shaky economy as the price of oil continues to drop, Mr. Wright said, and Mr. Harper could also be benefiting from a vocal stance against terrorism.
“Two key planks that always emerge as a strong suit for the Conservatives over the other two parties are always the economy and national security,” Mr. Wright said.
Mr. Harper’s approval rating is at 49% – the highest since March 2012 — according to Iposos’ polling from the last quarter of 2014.
Federal Tories lead the Liberals across Canada, including in Ontario: poll | National Post
Heh heh heh. Conservatives closing in on a majority..........
Standard disclaimer....Polls 10 months before the election are just fun to talk about.....they mean little.
“If you took the 2011 numbers and applied them to the new riding situation immediately — without having a campaign or anything — the Conservatives already gain 22 extra seats as a result of that,” Mr. Wright said.
The Liberals have fallen three points since December, to 31%. Thomas Mulcair and the NDP remain steady at 24%, down seven points since the 2011 federal election.
The increased support for the Conservative party could be reflective of the shaky economy as the price of oil continues to drop, Mr. Wright said, and Mr. Harper could also be benefiting from a vocal stance against terrorism.
“Two key planks that always emerge as a strong suit for the Conservatives over the other two parties are always the economy and national security,” Mr. Wright said.
Mr. Harper’s approval rating is at 49% – the highest since March 2012 — according to Iposos’ polling from the last quarter of 2014.
Federal Tories lead the Liberals across Canada, including in Ontario: poll | National Post
Heh heh heh. Conservatives closing in on a majority..........
Standard disclaimer....Polls 10 months before the election are just fun to talk about.....they mean little.
The Liberals are done for. Things will only go downhill for them. Trudeau's inexperience has played right into the hands of the Conservatives. What was he thinking when he stated that pro-Lifers would not be welcomed in his party? He's alienated all Liberal pro-Lifers. Many will no doubt hop on board the Conservative bandwagon.
His carbon tax plan introduced last year also did not sit too well with many of us potential voters. Conservatives will no doubt bring this to the forefront during the election campaign.
All we need now is for the Liberal leader to make another outrageous statement, and come election time in the sprin ... er I mean in the fall, and a Conservative majority would be guaranteed.
His carbon tax plan introduced last year also did not sit too well with many of us potential voters. Conservatives will no doubt bring this to the forefront during the election campaign.
All we need now is for the Liberal leader to make another outrageous statement, and come election time in the sprin ... er I mean in the fall, and a Conservative majority would be guaranteed.
Good to see a sensible "take" on the situation for a change. The man just doesn't have it, not wanting to be insulting I'm grasping for a kinder word than "idiot".
Kathleen Wynne may turn out to be Harper's biggest trump card. With all the added carbon taxes and increasing deficits and unaccounted spending the people of Ontario are going to come to their senses and realize, "We don't want another useless Liberal at the Federal level to screw thing up even more."
Besides history has shown that the majority of the times Ontario votes far differently at the federal level than they do at the provincial level.
Besides history has shown that the majority of the times Ontario votes far differently at the federal level than they do at the provincial level.
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You just keep telling yourself that.
Canada Liberal Party Hijacked By Pro-Lifers?
Obviously they failed, but there were a hell of a lot more than three.
You just keep telling yourself that.
Canada Liberal Party Hijacked By Pro-Lifers?
Obviously they failed, but there were a hell of a lot more than three.
That's fantastic news.
A Conservative minority would bring the other two parties together so that Real Canada can finally get some representation.
