It is Impossible to Meet Kyoto Targets - Buzz Hargrove
- Thread starter Toro
- Start date
We do not know if resources are finite.
We know that the resources we have now are finite. But we don't know that in the future because we don't know what the technological set available to mankind will be.
Your argument assumes
1. We continue to consume those resources at a similar rate, and
2. Only those resources will be used in the future.
Perhaps in 75 years, we'll have cars that get 5,000 miles to the gallon.
Advents in nanotechnology may decrease the demand for copper by 90% as the atomic structure of copper products is strengthened.
Perhaps all power will be harnassed by wind or solar in a century.
That's all wild speculation, but we don't know. We have no idea. Did you know what the Internet was 15 years ago?
If a static population meets with a severe shortage of resources in a short period of time, i.e. famine in Ethiopia, then obviously, population will decline. But otherwise, the only finite limitation is the bounds of technological innovation.
We know that the resources we have now are finite. But we don't know that in the future because we don't know what the technological set available to mankind will be.
Your argument assumes
1. We continue to consume those resources at a similar rate, and
2. Only those resources will be used in the future.
Perhaps in 75 years, we'll have cars that get 5,000 miles to the gallon.
Advents in nanotechnology may decrease the demand for copper by 90% as the atomic structure of copper products is strengthened.
Perhaps all power will be harnassed by wind or solar in a century.
That's all wild speculation, but we don't know. We have no idea. Did you know what the Internet was 15 years ago?
If a static population meets with a severe shortage of resources in a short period of time, i.e. famine in Ethiopia, then obviously, population will decline. But otherwise, the only finite limitation is the bounds of technological innovation.
Limits and Time.
And time. From Kyoto to nowaday growth. Limit: We still are part of the earth. No different from the other civilizations of the past except the internet, electronics, and maybe different forms of plastics.
And time. From Kyoto to nowaday growth. Limit: We still are part of the earth. No different from the other civilizations of the past except the internet, electronics, and maybe different forms of plastics.
There's a lotta things we don't know. But if we keep popping out people, decreasing the amount of territory that sustains life, killing sealife by dumping crap in the water, making fresh water harder to get at, etc., it's a pretty good bet that more people will die than we can recoop the numbers of.
I'm not saying we shouldn't be good stewards of the planet. I don't want to live in a polluted dump.
However, this idea that mankind is on the brink of destruction because of finite resources is silly. Thomas Malthus said that the earth couldn't hold more people as it would soon run out of resources. That was in 1803, just before humanity was to embark on the greatest expansion of living standards we have ever known.
So the onus is on the doomsayers.
Toro, I'm not suggesting that technology can't fix our problems, just that it's foolhearty to expect that we can deal with any road bumps. From those graphs, even the measly bacteria show trends like that before population crash.
Don't get me wrong, I fully believe that we can support more humans, and that technology is the key to that. I only think we should be wary of relying on our ingenuity to always pull us up when we face a problem.
Don't get me wrong, I fully believe that we can support more humans, and that technology is the key to that. I only think we should be wary of relying on our ingenuity to always pull us up when we face a problem.
sorry if you misunderstood me toro. I am not saying humanity is on the brink of destuction. I find the slow errosion that is occuring more likely to be the path of change than a cataclysmic event. Everything you posted on extended life expectancy is correct. However, great gains of the past recent years came at the expense of depletion beyond replenishment and at some point "the price will be paid". Its not too late to show environmental stewardship, but if it is to be done with the acceptance of current and expanding population levels then each and every person must except the expense of less for oneself.
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CK
That's not correct. The intensity of oil usage has been falling over the past five decades, i.e. for every unit of GDP growth, the amount of energy needed has fallen. This is is what you'd expect as technology is generally applied to the economy.
That's not correct. The intensity of oil usage has been falling over the past five decades, i.e. for every unit of GDP growth, the amount of energy needed has fallen. This is is what you'd expect as technology is generally applied to the economy.
toro,
but have improvements kept pace with growth?
we are still heavily reliant on oil with no real feasable alternative (for our current way of life), and it will run out at some point.
I don't think that we disagree for the most part. It is just you are more an optimist than I.
but have improvements kept pace with growth?
we are still heavily reliant on oil with no real feasable alternative (for our current way of life), and it will run out at some point.
I don't think that we disagree for the most part. It is just you are more an optimist than I.
Not according to abiotic oil theory, which is one theory the Russians successfully use to find new oil reserves.
walter,
there are a few issues with abiotic oil theory but formost is the issue of rate of creation. If humans use oil at a faster rate than it is replenished (this includes accessable) it will still cause issues (look at other renewable resources that experience shortage issues).
there are a few issues with abiotic oil theory but formost is the issue of rate of creation. If humans use oil at a faster rate than it is replenished (this includes accessable) it will still cause issues (look at other renewable resources that experience shortage issues).