Conservatives and Liberals say if Prime Minister Stephen Harper gets three of his five priorities through Parliament he could win a majority.
Political foes say the five priorities are a packaging PR exercise, but Conservatives and even Liberals say if Prime Minister Stephen Harper gets three of his five top legislative priorities through Parliament before the next election, the Conservatives will likely win a majority.
"Unless something extraordinary comes up that we don't know about, I think we will win the next election with a majority," one top Conservative, who did not want to be identified, told The Hill Times last week. "I think Harper is going to get three of his five priorities approved before the next election and with that he can, in my view, win the next election with a majority."
Some Liberals agree. "These guys are in for at least six years. The situation doesn't look that great in Quebec [for the federal Liberals] even now. We don't have a leader and who knows who will be the leader and what kind of [political] skills that leader will have. So, considering the information that we have at this time, it would be fair to say these guys are in for six years," said one top Liberal who also did not want to be identified.
Prime Minister Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) has repeatedly outlined his top five priorities: to clean up the government through the Federal Accountability Act; to cut the GST; to crack down on crime; to deliver a Conservative daycare plan; and to establish patient wait times guarantee. The key part of the Harper agenda is between now and the end of June.
Tory insiders say they believe Mr. Harper's five priorities were not only key to the last election campaign, but will be key to winning the next election as well because Conservatives will return to their ridings and to voters and say, "A promise made, a promise kept."
Declared another top Conservative organizer: "We have been told to be ready [for the next election] by May 2007. As you know [Doug] Finley is already working in the party office from day one to plan for the next election. If we can get three things done out of five, I'm pretty sure we can win the next election."
However, sources agreed last week that it would be "unrealistic" to think that the Conservatives will be able to get all five priorities passed through Parliament before the next election given that it's a minority government.
The political players also point out that Prime Minister Harper is already in campaign mode and is taking every advantage available to get out of Ottawa, making good political and leadership use of his time when the House isn't sitting.
But political trouble in the House is brewing. The opposition Liberals and the New Democrats have vowed to oppose the Harper government on at least the day care which remains a controversial issue. The Prime Minister escalated the political temperature over the childcare issue last week when he challenged the opposition parties to defeat the government over the issue.
Political insiders are waiting to see how the Prime Minister will keep his childcare promise to Quebec and defend it and sell it to the rest of the country.
However, one Liberal said "at some point the Liberals are going to have to come to grips with the fact that they lost and that programs that may have been in were not the programs on which Harper ran on and Harper's going to have to institute his own."
Yet, some Liberals say it's difficult to believe Prime Minister Harper will be able to pass the massive and sweeping Federal Accountability Act by the end of June, unless the Conservatives extend the sittings into the summer break, or, unless they can make an arrangement to avoid going through the bill on a clause-by-clause basis.
Moreover, The Hill Times reported last week (April 17) that several Liberal Senators are against the idea of a single ethics commissioner under the Federal Accountability Act, promising a political showdown in the Upper Chamber.
Liberals expect Liberal Senators not to rubber stamp the Federal Accountability Act and suggest the Senators may make a point sooner rather than later.
"It's not the role of the executive to tell the Senate how the Senate should be governing. It's up to the Senators to do that," British Columbia Grit Senator Jack Austin told The Hill Times.
Ontario Conservative Senator Consiglio Di Nino, who played a key role in Ontario as a "mentor and adviser" to Conservative candidates in the last federal election, meanwhile, said that his party's five priorities are obviously important, but would not say clearly if getting three passed before the next election could mean Mr. Harper will win a majority.
"I certainly believe he fully intends to try but in a minority Parliament, there are no guarantees. These are priorities for the Conservative government that will find good support in Parliament," said Sen. Di Nino. "Mr. Harper is the kind of a man, the kind of a leader who will do his best to keep all the promises that he made to Canadians... obviously, in a minority government."
But NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis (Winnipeg North, Man.) said even if the minority Conservatives get three of their priorities through Parliament, it doesn't mean a majority win next time.
Declared Ms. Wasylycia-Leis: "The Conservative government was elected to do more than its five priorities. The five priorities are very much a packaging PR exercise on their part. That won't be, on its own, good enough for Canadians. They were elected to run government and to address a whole series of issues of concerns to Canadians and I think Canadians will judge them as a government and how they ran government...Keep in mind Canadians themselves will keep saying 'look we didn't give you a majority government, we gave you a minority to see how you do. "
Liberal MP Wayne Easter (Malpeque, P.E.I.), who is blooming in opposition, agreed. "Certainly, he will be judged somewhat on those five priorities but the problem is that the government has to govern every day and five priorities don't cut it. Harper is governing as if nothing matters other than these five priorities and that's just unacceptable."
According to a poll conducted by the Strategic Counsel and published by The Globe and Mail on April 15, public opinion indicated that 39 per cent of those surveyed were satisfied with the performance of the Conservative Party in running the affairs of the country. Liberals had the support of 29 per cent of the people, the New Democrats had 14 per cent support and the Bloc was the choice of 11 per cent.
Nonetheless, most federal Liberals are reasonably impressed with how "calm and cool" Mr. Harper has conducted himself as Prime Minister of Canada to date, however, another top Liberal also told The Hill Times that it doesn't help that the Liberals are still rusty in opposition. The Grit also pointed out that the Liberals could beef up their line of questioning in the theatrical 45-minute daily Question Period in the House.
"He got a lot of softball questions lobbed up there for him to wack out of the park and at this stage the Libs are quite vulnerable on some of these issues, on the GST issue and on the Adscam, they're not dealing from a position of strength here," said the Grit. "The contentious issue is going to be the childcare stuff."
As far as Liberal strategy goes, one Liberal said despite the fact the Grits are still pushing the floor-crossing and softwood lumber issue with International Trade Minister David Emerson (Vancouver Kingsway, B.C.), the strategy isn't working and at least one top Liberal said Liberal international trade critic Dominic LeBlanc (Beauséjour, N.B.) should stick to the issue of international trade and stay away from ethical issues. The Liberal said some Liberals in the upper hierarchy are pushing for a "Rat Pack" style of attack in Question Period, but concluded the strategy isn't flying.
"The impact of the Emerson stuff outside of Vancouver Kingsway is minimal to non-existent. Dominic is going to have to give his head a shake on a number of issues. The OLO is using Dominic as sort of their little attack dog," said one Liberal.
But federal Liberals also believe Prime Minister Harper's "inane" media strategy can't last because Mr. Harper doesn't have the time to keep it up. --With files from Kate Malloy
http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=/2006/april/24/majority/&c=1
Political foes say the five priorities are a packaging PR exercise, but Conservatives and even Liberals say if Prime Minister Stephen Harper gets three of his five top legislative priorities through Parliament before the next election, the Conservatives will likely win a majority.
"Unless something extraordinary comes up that we don't know about, I think we will win the next election with a majority," one top Conservative, who did not want to be identified, told The Hill Times last week. "I think Harper is going to get three of his five priorities approved before the next election and with that he can, in my view, win the next election with a majority."
Some Liberals agree. "These guys are in for at least six years. The situation doesn't look that great in Quebec [for the federal Liberals] even now. We don't have a leader and who knows who will be the leader and what kind of [political] skills that leader will have. So, considering the information that we have at this time, it would be fair to say these guys are in for six years," said one top Liberal who also did not want to be identified.
Prime Minister Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) has repeatedly outlined his top five priorities: to clean up the government through the Federal Accountability Act; to cut the GST; to crack down on crime; to deliver a Conservative daycare plan; and to establish patient wait times guarantee. The key part of the Harper agenda is between now and the end of June.
Tory insiders say they believe Mr. Harper's five priorities were not only key to the last election campaign, but will be key to winning the next election as well because Conservatives will return to their ridings and to voters and say, "A promise made, a promise kept."
Declared another top Conservative organizer: "We have been told to be ready [for the next election] by May 2007. As you know [Doug] Finley is already working in the party office from day one to plan for the next election. If we can get three things done out of five, I'm pretty sure we can win the next election."
However, sources agreed last week that it would be "unrealistic" to think that the Conservatives will be able to get all five priorities passed through Parliament before the next election given that it's a minority government.
The political players also point out that Prime Minister Harper is already in campaign mode and is taking every advantage available to get out of Ottawa, making good political and leadership use of his time when the House isn't sitting.
But political trouble in the House is brewing. The opposition Liberals and the New Democrats have vowed to oppose the Harper government on at least the day care which remains a controversial issue. The Prime Minister escalated the political temperature over the childcare issue last week when he challenged the opposition parties to defeat the government over the issue.
Political insiders are waiting to see how the Prime Minister will keep his childcare promise to Quebec and defend it and sell it to the rest of the country.
However, one Liberal said "at some point the Liberals are going to have to come to grips with the fact that they lost and that programs that may have been in were not the programs on which Harper ran on and Harper's going to have to institute his own."
Yet, some Liberals say it's difficult to believe Prime Minister Harper will be able to pass the massive and sweeping Federal Accountability Act by the end of June, unless the Conservatives extend the sittings into the summer break, or, unless they can make an arrangement to avoid going through the bill on a clause-by-clause basis.
Moreover, The Hill Times reported last week (April 17) that several Liberal Senators are against the idea of a single ethics commissioner under the Federal Accountability Act, promising a political showdown in the Upper Chamber.
Liberals expect Liberal Senators not to rubber stamp the Federal Accountability Act and suggest the Senators may make a point sooner rather than later.
"It's not the role of the executive to tell the Senate how the Senate should be governing. It's up to the Senators to do that," British Columbia Grit Senator Jack Austin told The Hill Times.
Ontario Conservative Senator Consiglio Di Nino, who played a key role in Ontario as a "mentor and adviser" to Conservative candidates in the last federal election, meanwhile, said that his party's five priorities are obviously important, but would not say clearly if getting three passed before the next election could mean Mr. Harper will win a majority.
"I certainly believe he fully intends to try but in a minority Parliament, there are no guarantees. These are priorities for the Conservative government that will find good support in Parliament," said Sen. Di Nino. "Mr. Harper is the kind of a man, the kind of a leader who will do his best to keep all the promises that he made to Canadians... obviously, in a minority government."
But NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis (Winnipeg North, Man.) said even if the minority Conservatives get three of their priorities through Parliament, it doesn't mean a majority win next time.
Declared Ms. Wasylycia-Leis: "The Conservative government was elected to do more than its five priorities. The five priorities are very much a packaging PR exercise on their part. That won't be, on its own, good enough for Canadians. They were elected to run government and to address a whole series of issues of concerns to Canadians and I think Canadians will judge them as a government and how they ran government...Keep in mind Canadians themselves will keep saying 'look we didn't give you a majority government, we gave you a minority to see how you do. "
Liberal MP Wayne Easter (Malpeque, P.E.I.), who is blooming in opposition, agreed. "Certainly, he will be judged somewhat on those five priorities but the problem is that the government has to govern every day and five priorities don't cut it. Harper is governing as if nothing matters other than these five priorities and that's just unacceptable."
According to a poll conducted by the Strategic Counsel and published by The Globe and Mail on April 15, public opinion indicated that 39 per cent of those surveyed were satisfied with the performance of the Conservative Party in running the affairs of the country. Liberals had the support of 29 per cent of the people, the New Democrats had 14 per cent support and the Bloc was the choice of 11 per cent.
Nonetheless, most federal Liberals are reasonably impressed with how "calm and cool" Mr. Harper has conducted himself as Prime Minister of Canada to date, however, another top Liberal also told The Hill Times that it doesn't help that the Liberals are still rusty in opposition. The Grit also pointed out that the Liberals could beef up their line of questioning in the theatrical 45-minute daily Question Period in the House.
"He got a lot of softball questions lobbed up there for him to wack out of the park and at this stage the Libs are quite vulnerable on some of these issues, on the GST issue and on the Adscam, they're not dealing from a position of strength here," said the Grit. "The contentious issue is going to be the childcare stuff."
As far as Liberal strategy goes, one Liberal said despite the fact the Grits are still pushing the floor-crossing and softwood lumber issue with International Trade Minister David Emerson (Vancouver Kingsway, B.C.), the strategy isn't working and at least one top Liberal said Liberal international trade critic Dominic LeBlanc (Beauséjour, N.B.) should stick to the issue of international trade and stay away from ethical issues. The Liberal said some Liberals in the upper hierarchy are pushing for a "Rat Pack" style of attack in Question Period, but concluded the strategy isn't flying.
"The impact of the Emerson stuff outside of Vancouver Kingsway is minimal to non-existent. Dominic is going to have to give his head a shake on a number of issues. The OLO is using Dominic as sort of their little attack dog," said one Liberal.
But federal Liberals also believe Prime Minister Harper's "inane" media strategy can't last because Mr. Harper doesn't have the time to keep it up. --With files from Kate Malloy
http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=/2006/april/24/majority/&c=1