The mystery of sunspots
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The mystery of sunspots


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March 26th, 2008, 05:51 AM

Quoting Tonington
Do you ever read from that website Walter? The cycles actually overlap. It's not like the hockey season is over and you start playing golf, unless you're a Maple Leaf of course. Cycle 24 began in January by their accounts.
There is no consensus on that.
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March 26th, 2008, 06:21 AM

Quoting Walter
There is no consensus on that.
And what would need to happen to convince you it has? Anthony Watts posted it has begun, the website you've been posting from said it has begun, what consensus do you need? They spotted a sun spot with reversed polarity, and at high latitude. What other clues would one need to say a new cycle has begun?
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April 8th, 2008, 06:32 AM

Quoting Tonington
And what would need to happen to convince you it has? Anthony Watts posted it has begun, the website you've been posting from said it has begun, what consensus do you need? They spotted a sun spot with reversed polarity, and at high latitude. What other clues would one need to say a new cycle has begun?
Solar cycle minimum at the earliest in second half of 2008?

7 04 2008

Current SOHO: The Sun is blank again
The outlook for solar activity continues to be pushed further back as cycle 23 spots continue, such as the group of 3 seen last week, but no cycle 24 spots are being seen. NASA’s convened panel of scientists obviously missed their mark of consensus in predicting cycle 24 would start in March 2008. There is growing concern over the delay in the start of cycle 24. Now a new prediction portends more delay. If we go to May or later before the solar min is reached, cycle 23 will be the longest cycle since the late 1800s. Now it is looking like cycle 24 may not get started until late 2008 or early 2009.
Here is a new forecast from Jan Janssens SOLAEMON the SOLar Activity & Earth MONitor web page:
In this statistical research, transits to cycles 12, 13 and 14 were considered, as well as transits to cycles 21, 22 and 23. The current transition towards SC24 was compared with foregoing evolutions.
The start of SC24 is not to be expected prior to July 2008, and in all likelihood might even take place only in the first half of 2009. This conclusion matches perfectly the results one can make from evolution of the number of spotless days. Nonetheless, SC23 would be one of the longest in over 100 years, possibly even in over 160 years.
See the entire article and methods used to determine these statements here:
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Engwelcome.html
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April 8th, 2008, 08:12 AM

Right, so if you follow the links from Watts--who himself posted when the first cycle 24 spot appeared--they mention the first sunspot from cycle 24 appearing in January and they link to SOHO who confirmed the first sunspot of cycle 24. A high latitude sunspot with reversed polarity. So, again, what more do you need?
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April 21st, 2008, 06:00 AM

Is this really Cycle 24 or is it something else?

Solar Science




Solar Cycle 24: Do we count Tiny Tims?

Another week of excitement as the second solar cycle 24 spot appeared…and then disappeared just as rapidly.
I can’t help feeling that with an unprecedented amount of high technology monitoring the Sun with ever higher resolution, the criteria by which a sunspot is defined has become radically weakened to such an extent that it all becomes meaningless.
On Climate Audit commenters noted that the criteria for naming hurricanes had become so weakened that practically any frontal wave in the Eastern Atlantic that persisted for more than a few hours got a name (the so-called “Tiny Tims” of the hurricane season).
So it appears to be with sunspots and Solar Cycle 24. Here is that second solar cycle 24 sunspot numbered for all to see:

Now in order to ascertain that there really is a spot there, I had to first make sure my laptop screen was really clean because it could have been hidden behind a rogue speck of dust and I could have missed it.
Can you spot it? If so, you’re better than I.
Here’s three views looking at the same spot. It may be there in the magnetogram showing the class signs of magnetic polarity reversal and there may be an associated phage (often the precursor of a sunspot) but is there a sunspot?

Meanwhile a few days later, yet another SC23 spot comes into view.
I can’t help but feel that this is all a little desperate. SC24 continues to surprise with its general unwillingness to make an unambiguous appearance.
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April 21st, 2008, 11:31 AM

Quoting Walter
Is this really Cycle 24 or is it something else?
Yes, it is really Cycle 24.
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April 25th, 2008, 05:55 AM

April 24:
Where is Solar Cycle 24? Look very, very carefully at the dramatic image of the Sun today, April 24 [above; also NASA’s ‘Soho’ website]. Can you see the tiny, tiny brownish spot towards the top right? That is ‘Sunspot 992’, and it is fading [if you want to know how sunspots are numbered, see ‘Sunspot Numbers’ at the excellent spaceweather.com]. The next 11-year cycle of solar storms (known as Solar Cycle 24) was predicted to have begun in autumn, 2006, but it appears to have been seriously delayed [see: ‘Spotty Science’, November 21]. It was then expected to take off in March last year, and to peak in late-2011, or mid-2012. But, as you can see for yourself from the image, the Sun remains spotless, except for one fading spot. This delayed onset has somewhat confused the official Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, leaving them evenly split on whether a weak or a strong period of solar storms now lies ahead.
Other scientists, however, are more concerned, including Phil Chapman, the first Australian to become a NASA astronaut [‘Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh’ (The Australian, April 23)]. He writes:
“The scariest photo I have seen on the internet is www.spaceweather.com, where you will find a real-time image of the Sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity.
What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot.
Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously.”
Chapman then infers an intriguing link:
“It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year, so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as transient, pending what happens in the next few years.
This is where SOHO comes in. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.
It didn’t happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon.”
He then explains why these elusive sunspots might just prove to be highly significant:
“The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth’s climate. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790.
Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of Napoleon’s Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots.”
Finally, Chapman makes an impassioned plea for the ‘warmists’:
“... to take off the blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead.
It will be difficult for people to face the truth when their reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation may be at stake.
In the famous words of Oliver Cromwell, ‘I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken.’”
Brave words, indeed. So, folks, watch those spots!

Excerpt from: http://web.mac.com/sinfonia1/Global_...p-To-Date.html
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May 22nd, 2008, 06:34 AM

Still waiting for cycle 24 to get going; it's way overdue.
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May 22nd, 2008, 09:36 AM

Quoting Walter
Still waiting for cycle 24 to get going; it's way overdue.
The sunspots cycles

The following points are worthy of mentioning about the sunspots:
  • The sun hunts a large number of meteoritic rocks from the space, because of its tremendous gravity, more than what meteorites the earth obtains. This is in the Quranic revelation2: 24
فَاتَّقُوا النّارَ الّتِي وَقُودُها النّاسُ و الحِجارَةُ أُعِدَّتْ لِلْكافِرِينَ
The explanation: (Then ward off the Fire, whose fuel is men and stones, prepared for disbelievers.)

The Fire is called Saqar which is a sun bigger than our present sun.
Therefore (whose fuel is men and stones) means: the rocks of meteorites; because the sun pulls them to it by its gravity.
See question 8 in the subject of: Sun
  • The sun has become old, and it has reached its elderly, and will start to cool down especially starting from the time Venus stopped its axial rotation and this will last 2000 years of our calendar [or more precisely the calendar of the years when the Quran was revealed]; because the years in the future will be longer than our years, that is because the earth will slow down by time until it will stop rotating, 1000 years following the cessation of Venus from its axial rotation.
Sunspots


If we want to see what will befall our Earth in the future, we have to see the changes that have occurred on Venus [and had occurred on Mercury before], and what is there now on Venus [and Mercury]; because the same will happen to our Earth.

If their words about Venus are true, that Venus day and night are so long, and they can prove it [as do they assert and seem so certain about], then this means Venus may now be in the phase of the long nights which will precede its complete cessation from axial rotation.
  • The rocks, that the sun gravitates, will act as condensation nuclei to collect some cold material of the sun around them to form some islets which will increase by time.
  • So now they say there are cycles of the sunspots, every 11 years; then if this phenomenon is regular, and these spots are increasing in number, size and frequency of appearing; then this will indicate the ageing of the sun, and that its end has become near: after 2000 years from the stoppage of Venus; and this will be a gradual process. The sun will then transform into an earth with a thin crust.

This is in the Quranic revelation 41: 9
قُلْ أَئِنَّكُمْ لَتَكْفُرُونَ بِالَّذِي خَلَقَ الأَرْضَ فِي يَوْمَيْنِ وَتَجْعَلُونَ لَهُ أَندَادًا ذَلِكَ رَبُّ الْعَالَمِينَ
The explanation: ([O Mohammed] say [to the idolaters]: “Do you, then, disbelieve in [God] Who created the earth in two days, and do you ascribe to Him opponents? –That is the Lord of [all] the worlds!”)

The ‘two days’, mentioned here, means 2000 of our present years; and the ‘creation’ means the transformation; i.e. He transformed it into an earth after being a sun.
Sunspots

Moreover, the cessation of Venus from rotating around itself, has been a gradual process, as will our Earth do; because the Earth will slow down, and the day will be more than 24 hours, then at last there will come 10 nights: the length of each one will be 3 months, before will it stop completely, when there will not be the succession of days and nights.

And there will be a perpetual day on one side that face the sun and a lasting night on the other side, with some intermediate zones of dawn [before the sun-rise zone], afternoon and the sun-glow zone [before the sun-set zone].

This is in the Quran89: 1-5
وَالْفَجْرِ. وَلَيَالٍ عَشْرٍ
The explanation: (1- [I swear] by [the region of] the dawn!
2- And by the ten nights [preceding the standstill of the earth!)

This is a threatening oath with some future punishment; the ‘dawn’ is the position intermediate between the night [zone] and the day [zone], which will happen when the Earth will stop its rotation.

And the ‘ten nights’ will take place when the central heat of the earth will decrease, so that, at that time, its rotation will be very slow; so that the duration of the day will be three months, and the night will also last three months.

Then, when ten of such long nights will pass, the earth will stop from its rotation because its central heat will finish. At that time, the duration of the day will be one thousand years; and similarly the night [in the other side] will be. After that, Doomsday will take place.


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May 23rd, 2008, 10:09 PM

Eanassir, Your a phucking idiot- there I said it, ooh that feels good
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May 24th, 2008, 06:49 AM

Quoting Lester
, Your a ******* idiot- there I said it, ooh that feels good.
If you're going to disparage someone's intelligence, make sure your grammar and spelling are correct lest you be charged with the same affliction.
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May 24th, 2008, 08:04 AM

Quoting Lester
Eanassir, Your a phucking idiot- there I said it, ooh that feels good
Your reply reflects what you are.
Your reply is not good.
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May 24th, 2008, 06:47 PM

"you're"- happy Walter? as if you couldn't figure it out.
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May 24th, 2008, 07:00 PM

Eannassir, My Avatar is from the film "Heavy Metal"I do not think you would be allowed to watch it.It would be easy for anyone except you to find out where I'm from, look above my avatar, there is a Canadian Flag and my location. Furthermore, why don't you take your hocus pocus quran observations to the religious nut thread.
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May 25th, 2008, 09:25 AM

Quoting Lester
Eannassir, My Avatar is from the film "Heavy Metal"I do not think you would be allowed to watch it.It would be easy for anyone except you to find out where I'm from, look above my avatar, there is a Canadian Flag and my location. Furthermore, why don't you take your hocus pocus quran observations to the religious nut thread.
The Quran is not hocus pocus; the hocus pocus are the atheists and their non-sense thinking:

They are misguided by following the ambiguous part of the Quran [so they mock it without understanding its meaning] and leaving the plain part; because they are evil-doers:

When God – be glorified – gave some parables of the housefly, the spider and some other animals; the idolaters mocked Mohammed and the Quran, and said this Quran is from Mohammed himself, so he mentions such insects and trivial animals, and the Quran is not from God.

Therefore, this Quranic aya 2: 26 was revealed:
إِنَّ اللَّهَ لاَ يَسْتَحْيِي أَن يَضْرِبَ مَثَلاً مَّا بَعُوضَةً فَمَا فَوْقَهَا فَأَمَّا الَّذِينَ آمَنُواْ فَيَعْلَمُونَ أَنَّهُ الْحَقُّ مِن رَّبِّهِمْ وَأَمَّا الَّذِينَ كَفَرُواْ فَيَقُولُونَ مَاذَا أَرَادَ اللَّهُ بِهَذَا مَثَلاً يُضِلُّ بِهِ كَثِيراً وَيَهْدِي بِهِ كَثِيراً وَمَا يُضِلُّ بِهِ إِلاَّ الْفَاسِقِينَ
The explanation:
(Surely God is not ashamed to give an example, whatsoever even of a gnat and anything superior to it.

As for those who believe, they know that it is the truth from their Lord;
but as for those who disbelieve, they say: 'What is it that God means by this as an example?

He misleads many thereby and thereby guides many; He misleads only evildoers thereby.

Those who break God's covenant after ratifying it, and sever that which God ordered to be joined, and make mischief in the earth: Such are the losers.)


The interpretation:

>> (Surely God is not ashamed to give an example) of any animal whether it is a small insect or the largest animal,

>> (whatsoever even of a gnat and anything superior to it.)

This is because when He – be glorified – gave an example with the spider; the idolaters mocked and said what is this example that God speaks about such small animals like the spider and the housefly; this Quran then is not from God, but Mohammed himself arranged it.

So this aya was revealed, which means: God does not see it shameful to speak about such animals: from the smallest insect to the largest animal; because He created them all, and you are among some of His creation, and no difference between you and such creatures concerning the creation; they are His created beings and you are His servants; because all that is His creation.

He said فَمَا فَوْقَهَا i.e. (and anything superior to it) ; He did not say: anything larger than it; because He meant not only the size, but the complexity of structures, the instinct, the power and the size.

>> (As for those who believe, they know that it) i.e. the Quran (is the truth) revealed (from their Lord)

>> (but as for those who disbelieve, they say: 'What is it that God means by this as an example?) i.e. so that He give a parable of the insects.

>> (He misleads many thereby and thereby guides many); that is because people are of two kinds: righteous and evil-doer:
  • The righteous is the one whose manners are good and his conduct is good: truthful of words, kind of heart, generous, kind to the needy, compassionate to the poor, and is not proud over the weak.
  • While the evil-doer; he is opposite that: liar, proud, oppressor, transgressor, talebearer (or slanderer) and stingy. If he has not all these attributes, then at least he has some of them.
So the righteous will follow the plain Quranic revelations and be guided with it, and leave the ambiguous to God, and they will be saved.
While the evil-doer will follow the ambiguous Quranic revelations, and leave the plain ayat of the Quran, and he will be misguided with it, and will lose.

Therefore this is the meaning of: (He misleads many thereby and thereby guides many) i.e. many of people will be misguided by following the ambiguous part of the Quran [so they mock and deny it without understanding its meaning], and many people will follow the plain ayat of the Quran and be guided with it and leave the matter of the ambiguous part to God.

>> (He misleads only evildoers thereby) i.e. only those with evil-conduct and manners.

Then He started to dispraise the evil-doer:

>> (Those who break God's covenant after ratifying it) i.e. the covenant which they covenanted God and their past prophets: to serve God alone and not to associate anyone and anything with Him, and not to murder people which God prohibited their killing, and not to commit adultery; but they broke their covenant and their promise.

>> (and sever that) kindred relation (which God ordered to be joined)

>> (and make mischief in the earth) by making seditions, and robbing people's property and transgressing on them, and by hindering people from believing in Mohammed.

>> (Such are the losers) who lost themselves and their families; and substituted the prosperity of Paradise for Hell.
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May 25th, 2008, 06:46 PM

Fairy tales and rubbish- You just imagime these things, All religious texts speak in metaphors. With a vivid enough imagination, these ayat you speak of can be interperated to mean anything.
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May 26th, 2008, 08:09 AM

Quoting Lester
Fairy tales and rubbish- You just imagime these things, All religious texts speak in metaphors. With a vivid enough imagination, these ayat you speak of can be interperated to mean anything.

This has nothing to do with fairy tales.

The ambiguous ayat gives the Quran a time extension; because when God addressed the past generations; they did not know there are other earths like Mars, Saturn and other planets; they could not imagine that the sun is more than one million times bigger than the earth, and almost they could not imagine that the earth is spherical and it circulate around the sun.

So He revealed the Quran in a way that all generations (including the future generations that will come after us); all generations will understand according to their level of thinking.

The generation of Prophet Mohammed denied the revealing of the Quran from God, while the later generation (the contemporary) may deny the interpretation, and say such interpretation is only an imagination.

This is in the Quran 10: 39
بَلْ كَذَّبُواْ بِمَا لَمْ يُحِيطُواْ بِعِلْمِهِ وَلَمَّا يَأْتِهِمْ تَأْوِيلُهُ كَذَلِكَ كَذَّبَ الَّذِينَ مِن قَبْلِهِمْ فَانظُرْ كَيْفَ كَانَ عَاقِبَةُ الظَّالِمِينَ
The explanation: (But [actually] they have cried lies to the [mysterious ayat of the Quran: the 'similitudes'], the knowledge of which they comprehend not,

and even when the interpretation thereof will come to them [at the time of the Mahdi-Paraclite, they will also cry lies.]

Even so those [unbelieving nations] that were before them cried lies [to their apostles];

then see [O Mohammed] what end was of the wrong-doers [: was it not destruction and ruining?]


Therefore, all generations denied and disbelieved:
  • The ancient generations denied their apostles and their heavenly books.
  • The generation contemporary to Prophet Mohammed denied that the Quran was revealed.
  • The present generation deny the interpretation of the Quran.

[N.B. In this aya, it is also noticed that it is the wrong-doers who will deny and disbelieve, as it was explained in the past reply.]


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May 26th, 2008, 12:35 PM

quote-"So He revealed the Quran in a way that all generations (including the future generations that will come after us); all generations will understand according to their level of thinking."

How convenient, I call bull****. Like I said in the previous post, these are metaphors you speak in these can be interperated in countless ways. The quran is no more credible than the quatrains of Nostradamus.
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