A new poll suggests Stephen Harper's Conservatives are surging ahead of the Liberals, even in the crucial province of Ontario, where Liberals have long held an advantage.
They are treading in majority territory...the conservatives. Nationally 36% rating nation-wide.
Same rating they had when they came in power.
Help me with the math on this one. The Conservatives got into power with a slim minority, in fact the slimmest since Confederation... they have finally pulled themselves up to that same number as during Ad-Scam when they were voted in, despite the opposition having no leader... how are they treading in majority territory?Quote has been trimmed, See full post:
The threshhold for majority has always been around 40% but in this case it is certainly not for three reasons:
1. The imbalance of almost complete support in Alberta and Saskatchewan drains total support away from other regions necessary to win enough seats for a majority, because;
2. At least 2/3 of their support needs to come from Ontario and Quebec, where the 40% derived from (since they represent 60% of the seats), and it is simply not the case here. Ya missed this nugget from the story: "The poll recorded 35 per cent support for the Bloc Québécois in Quebec... The Liberals followed the Bloc in Quebec with 23 per cent, with the Green party at 13 per cent, and the NDP with seven per cent." That fact alone snuffs out a Conservative majority.
3. There is an extra party factoring in on this.
The fact that the only right wing party still is supported by only 1/3 of people who are polled isn't exactly something to be joyous about, especially considering the inclinations of unknown/swing voters to vote Liberal. As well, I honestly cannot see 12% of people actually voting Green when they get to the...