Durban climate conference sees shifting geopolitics
DURBAN - New tensions and alignments are emerging at the UN talks here, reflecting subtle but far-reaching changes in the geopolitics of climate change.
The bedrock for the 194-nation talks is the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
But since that agreement was adopted in 1992 the world has changed dramatically, and some of those changes clash head-on with the document's defining architecture. Under the terms of the UNFCCC, developed countries acknowledge historical responsibility for global warming and pledge to shoulder most of the burden for fixing it and to help developing countries cope with its impacts.
When the UNFCCC was crafted, developed countries accounted for two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions.Today, that proportion is fast being reversed.
Developing nations - led by China, India and Brazil - emit half, and by 2030 the figure will be 65 percent, according to several estimates.
Indeed, several countries that are still categorized as "developing" economies are now richer per-capita than "developed" nations in eastern and central Europe.
China acknowledges its new status as the world's top carbon polluter, but insists that the current rules should continue to apply, at least until 2020. But the growing emissions and prosperity of the so-called BASIC nations - Brazil, South Africa, India and China - have caused cracks to appear within a once-solid bloc of 132 nations known as the Group of 77 and China.
Poorer countries already struggling to cope with intense droughts, floods and rising seas have gingerly begun to appeal to their developing big brothers to beef up their commitment on climate.
Their concern fanned into alarm when in the opening days of the 12-day parlay in Durban, emerging giants clearly preferred to put off any new pledges on emissions for at least a decade.
"This is extremely worrying for us," said a lead negotiator from one of these most vulnerable nations. "The science is clear - if there is no action for another decade, then it means that many of the vulnerable developing countries are doomed."
There has long been simmering tension within the G77 bloc on this issue, he continued, but now it is bubbling to the surface.
At the Durban talks, the European Union (EU) is trying to convince both the United States and BASIC nations to sign on to a "roadmap" leading to a global climate pact in 2015.
So far, the EU proposal has been rejected by both.
For Brice Lalonde, a former French environment minister and co-chair of next year's Rio +20 summit, emerging giants are still on a learning curve. "They are used to being the spokesman of the poor of the planet. They have not yet had time to make the transition to co-managing the planet," he said before the conference.