An Election Today? Tories Would Lose 23 Seats

[FiveParadox]

EKOS Research today released a report that were a general election to be held today, Her Majesty’s Government for Canada would lose twenty-three seats, barely holding onto power. Most of the seats would be lost in Ontario and British Columbia. Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition has regained its Ontario support, leading the Conservatives by four percentage points. An interesting note is also that the Green Party of Canada would receive one seat in Ontario, and three in British Columbia. The resulting House of Commons (were an election held today) would be composed as follows:

• Her Majesty’s Government would have 121 seats (23 seats lost)
• Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition would have 90 seats (13 seats gained)
• the Bloc Québécois would have 53 seats (5 seats gained)
• the New Democratic Party would have 39 seats (3 seats gained)
• the Green Party would have 4 seats (4 seats gained)

The Government would be 32 seats short of a majority.

Source

• The Globe and Mail • homepage • article

 

[TenPenny]

Those polls are always interesting, but also pretty much meaningless, because every election is preceeded by campaigns, which completely change the field.

It would be interesting if an election was held at a snap, based on no campaigning at all, simply the record of the members. That would change things.

 

[JLM]

Those polls are always interesting, but also pretty much meaningless, because every election is preceeded by campaigns, which completely change the field.

It would be interesting if an election was held at a snap, based on no campaigning at all, simply the record of the members. That would change things.

I think THAT might just result in a Conservative majority, the reason being there is a lot of seniors (and becoming a bigger proportion of the population daily) and seniors tend to get out and vote and seniors aren't likely to vote against the tax breaks Harper has given us. For the financial benefits I've had I can put up with a lot of silliness in question period. Ignatieff is like Trudeau minus the charm. Full of sh*t. :smile:

 

[pgs]

If the liberals thought that poll had much validity they would not have let thirty members miss the latest confidence motion passing the last budget.
But nice try.

 

[The Old Medic]

Unfortunately for those crowing about this poll, there is no election today, or in the forseeable future. So, polls are utterly meaningless.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

Polls have been pretty much stable for a long time now, they only fluctuate slightly one way or other. But for a long time they have been showing a minority government, of one stripe or another.

It really shows the weakness of Harper, that he still has not made a sale for majority government, to Ontario and Quebec. After four Liberal governments (three of them majority government), one would think that Conservatives would get at least one majority. Mulroney managed two.

And they would have, if they had a strong and effective leader. Instead, what they have is a weak, dictatorial leader, who is for the moment governing from the centre right, but shows every indication that he will start governing from the far right as soon as he gets a majority.

While Harper has some loyal, passionate followers (who hang on to his every word, regard every word from him as Gospel truth and have a childlike faith in him), the fact is, Ontario just doesn’t trust Harper.

If the liberals thought that poll had much validity they would not have let thirty members miss the latest confidence motion passing the last budget.
But nice try.

What would be the point of that? it would pretty much result in the status quo.

Unfortunately for those crowing about this poll, there is no election today, or in the forseeable future. So, polls are utterly meaningless.

It works both ways. When Conservatives make gains in the poll, Conservatives here in this forum crow to high Heaven. In fact, I remember a thread here not long ago which showed how high Conservatives were riding in the polls, the implication being that all the other parties were toast. So perhaps Liberals can be forgiven for also doing so.

 

[JLM]

The entire thread is based on a moot point, Harper will be P.M. for the forseeable future and very likely as long as he wants to be. He's a stronger leader than his rivals combined. As sleezy as he is, we got him. :lol::lol::lol:

 

[AnnaG]

EKOS Research today released a report that were a general election to be held today, Her Majesty’s Government for Canada would lose twenty-three seats, barely holding onto power. Most of the seats would be lost in Ontario and British Columbia. Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition has regained its Ontario support, leading the Conservatives by four percentage points. An interesting note is also that the Green Party of Canada would receive one seat in Ontario, and three in British Columbia. The resulting House of Commons (were an election held today) would be composed as follows:

• Her Majesty’s Government would have 121 seats (23 seats lost)
• Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition would have 90 seats (13 seats gained)
• the Bloc Québécois would have 53 seats (5 seats gained)
• the New Democratic Party would have 39 seats (3 seats gained)
• the Green Party would have 4 seats (4 seats gained)

The Government would be 32 seats short of a majority.

Source

• The Globe and Mail • homepage • article

And they'd be replaced by other culls and duds. So?

 

[Risus]

Those polls are always interesting, but also pretty much meaningless, because every election is preceeded by campaigns, which completely change the field.

It would be interesting if an election was held at a snap, based on no campaigning at all, simply the record of the members. That would change things.

Yep. The only poll that counts is the one they hold on election day.
The 'snap' election would sure save money.

 

[taxslave]

What the polls say and what happens in individual ridings are two very different things.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

What the polls say and what happens in individual ridings are two very different things.

I think when they report how many seats each party would win, they do carry out riding by riding analysis, and don't just extrapolate popular poll percentage into seat percentage e.g. if Conservatives are ar say, 33%, that means they win 33% of the seats it doesn't work that way.

 

[Bar Sinister]

I think THAT might just result in a Conservative majority, the reason being there is a lot of seniors (and becoming a bigger proportion of the population daily) and seniors tend to get out and vote and seniors aren't likely to vote against the tax breaks Harper has given us. For the financial benefits I've had I can put up with a lot of silliness in question period. Ignatieff is like Trudeau minus the charm. Full of sh*t. :smile:

I qualify as a senior as does my wife. Neither of us has any plans to vote right of centre.

 

[JLM]

I qualify as a senior as does my wife. Neither of us has any plans to vote right of centre.

I could have phrased it better by saying "lower income seniors". I know some seniors staunchly vote N.D.P.

 

[Cliffy]

I have realized that just because someone is a senior doesn't mean they are smart or wise. Politics is a game they have played all there lives without much critical thinking. In our family, each generation voted opposite to the previous. My grandfather was conservative, my dad liberal and I'm an anarchist. Everyone knows politicians are in the same class as lawyers, and used car salesmen but we keep voting the scum into office so we can whine about them. Nobody seems to notice how absurd that is.

 

[JLM]

I have realized that just because someone is a senior doesn't mean they are smart or wise. Politics is a game they have played all there lives without much critical thinking. In our family, each generation voted opposite to the previous. My grandfather was conservative, my dad liberal and I'm an anarchist. Everyone knows politicians are in the same class as lawyers, and used car salesmen but we keep voting the scum into office so we can whine about them. Nobody seems to notice how absurd that is.

Yep, I know seniors who are as dumb as a fence post (even me on rare occasions). :lol::lol:

 

[AnnaG]

I qualify as a senior as does my wife. Neither of us has any plans to vote right of centre.

We aren't seniors, but we have the sense to vote on merit, integrity, and plans rather than on whether the candidates are left of center, right of center, good or bad looking, member of such-and-such party, etc.

I could have phrased it better by saying "lower income seniors". I know some seniors staunchly vote N.D.P.

"If you are young and not liberal, then you have no heart; but if you are old and not conservative, then you have no brain," Benjamin Disraeli and I think Churchill might have said it, too. lol

I have realized that just because someone is a senior doesn't mean they are smart or wise. Politics is a game they have played all there lives without much critical thinking. In our family, each generation voted opposite to the previous. My grandfather was conservative, my dad liberal and I'm an anarchist. Everyone knows politicians are in the same class as lawyers, and used car salesmen but we keep voting the scum into office so we can whine about them. Nobody seems to notice how absurd that is.

Nobody? Speak for yourself, pilgrim.

 

[Bar Sinister]

We aren't seniors, but we have the sense to vote on merit, integrity, and plans rather than on whether the candidates are left of center, right of center, good or bad looking, member of such-and-such party, etc.

"If you are young and not liberal, then you have no heart; but if you are old and not conservative, then you have no brain," Benjamin Disraeli and I think Churchill might have said it, too. lol

Nobody? Speak for yourself, pilgrim.

Wonderful Show me a party of merit on the right of centre and I'll vote for it. And I prefer J.S. Mills quotes about conservatives. "Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative."

 

[JLM]

Wonderful Show me a party of merit on the right of centre and I'll vote for it. And I prefer J.S. Mills quotes about conservatives. "Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative."

Careful, you are getting to sound like Sir Joseph "McCarthy".

 

[AnnaG]

Wonderful Show me a party of merit on the right of centre and I'll vote for it. And I prefer J.S. Mills quotes about conservatives. "Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative."

Exactly. We usually end up voting indie or at least someone we know doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of winning because the usual party people are kind of useless. The local MP for instance. He's a Dipper and dense as a post. The Con is a jerk lawyer who can't take anything seriously (maturity factor of about 1.5 out of 10), and the Glib is a nice lady but has a narrow POV.

 

[Walter]

Exactly. We usually end up voting indie or at least someone we know doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of winning because the usual party people are kind of useless. The local MP for instance. He's a Dipper and dense as a post. The Con is a jerk lawyer who can't take anything seriously (maturity factor of about 1.5 out of 10), and the Glib is a nice lady but has a narrow POV.

Name names.