#1Jun 28th, 2009
On other thread about a Liberal forced election this spring I predicted that Iggy would not have the "stones" to force an election this spring or this fall.
50% right so far.
The question becomes did Iggy pass up a prime opportunity to unseat the perennially unlikable and frigid Harper?
Probably so I figure.
Scott Reid advised Iggy that he had a small window of opportunity to trigger an early election.
New party leaders always get a short bounce in the polls because they are fresh and new and seem different and interesting.
Then the bloom fades in the public's eyes and they become just another expedient politician, just like all the others.
So now the Libs have once again dropped in the polls to slightly under the Cons.
And Iggy gets to do the trained seal thing once again when the house sits.
That's gotta start to chafe.
David Miller, the left wing mayor of Toronto is panning out to be a total disaster.
Double digit property tax increases and garbage as far as the eye can see.
He is panning out to be something like the old Bob Rae except on a municipal level. And when the left wing melts down in the 403 that could end up hurting Iggy in more than a few Ontario federal riding's.
Next up is McSquinty.
Looks like massive provincial tax increases coming down the pipeline for the folks in Ontario.
This harmonized sales tax thing looks like a great opportunity for the provincial Libs to stick it to the taxpayer well and truly.
Its true, of course, that Flaherty advised McSquinty to harmonize taxes in Ontario, but hey, its McSquinty's baby.
Anyway who in their right mind would believe anything Flaherty said?
McSquinty is gonna have to wear increased unemployment and increased taxes in Ontario.
And that too may shift a few undecided votes towards the federal Cons in Ontario.
And Iggy cannot afford to loose a single seat in the Liberal heartland.
South of us in the US, Obama is dropping like a stone in the popularity polls.
From an 80% approval rate he has dropped to slightly less than 50%.
Personally I think that it was unavoidable as Americans had completely unrealistic expectations about Obama.
The guy just didn't have a magic wand and its not fair to expect him to snap his fingers and fix a world wide recession.
So reality sets in south of line.
And now Obama has rammed through cap and trade which he freely admits is going to result in large cost of living and tax increases for Americans.
And its definitely designed to totally screw Canada.
So I guess time will tell how the shift to the political left and potentially protectionist trade practices will pan out in the States.
But if the Obama administration increases taxes and does its best to welsh on trade agreements with Canada I do not see that working in Iggy's favour.
What with his great American connections and linkages and all.
On a national level Canada will probably have bottomed out recession wise and slowly be turning the corner towards better times.
Canadians will probably be resistant to turfing a PM who appears to be slowly leading us out of the the bad times.
And that could leave Iggy sitting high and dry for a long time.
Iggy's last little bout of fussing and squealing about a few Conservative budget details made Iggy look petulant and ineffective.
And polling confirmed it.
So how long can Iggy sit on his hands, errr flippers.
And let Bob Rae stick subtle little knives in his back on an ongoing basis?
And what about his six year pledge where he returns home to the States if denied
the crown?
Lord knows most Canadians would probably punt Harper in a flash given a decent alternative.
But as cold and isolated as Harper is I am just not sure Iggy is the man for the job either.
Trex
