Quote: Originally Posted by Tonington
Trex said that Liberalman's polls were out of date. So I posted the newest polls from the same polling firm that Liberalman chose to use. It is not really "but whatever", it very much matters.
It's a bit like apples to oranges when you compare different polling firms numbers, from different polling dates, especially when tracking a trend in public opinion.
If he uses the same polling firm over the period, take Ekos, that's much better.
The reason I said "but whatever" was to indicate that I was not too terribly concerned about discrete polling results.
I posted a long thread starter that contained quite a few opinions of mine.
Obviously I could have cut and pasted polling results as well.
The house is not even sitting right now thus polls at this time are not in, my opinion, that big a deal.
An election, at the moment, is impossible.
I knew, I just knew, people would post "their" rebuttal polls.
Complain about "phone in" as versus"door knocked".
Complain about sample size, question structure, sampling methods, built in errors and biases.
And so on.
Its like haggling over chicken entrails on a daily basis.
So yeh, but whatever.
Triggering an election and running an election are a little bit like waging war.
You need good generals and accurate intelligence.
A rough rule of thumb is that the offence(Iggy) needs a larger army than the defence or incumbent(Harper).
2 to 1 in favour of the offence would be excellent.
Thus if you were looking to the polls Iggy should be polling around 45% to 55% consistently while Harper needs to be mid to high 20's in order for Iggy to launch an effective assault.
The reality is that Iggy is polling roughly dead even with Harper and for Iggy that is terrible news.
It probably means that if Iggy triggered an election this spring or possibly fall he would be quite likely to loose the war.
Tonington is correct when he mentions polling trends.
Trend lines are quite important to determine who has the momentum thus showing who is gaining ground and who is loosing ground.
That is the only reason I mentioned polling in my thread starter.
When Iggy squawked about 4 budget issues it appears that the polling trends show a loss in approval percentages for the Libs.
Thus it could be said tactically that Iggy made a bad move on that issue.
But its no big deal and will be forgotten long before the house sits again.
The only truly vital polls are taken on the run up to an election and during an election.
That is how your campaign managers and back room boys (generals) gather intelligence and monitor the battle.
Polling shows how your advertising and general strategy is working on a real-time, snapshot basis.
It shows riding by riding how your troops and your enemies troops are fairing.
And if you consider focus groups a type of polling it evaluates your forward battle plans.
So right now the only polls that matter in general are the press commissioned ones that show Iggy bogging down alongside Harper.
And for the offensive team that is a disaster.
My thread starter stands.
Iggy is in trouble in my opinion.
He needs to be slice and dicing the Cons in the media on a daily basis.
He needs to be out in front of the issues that matter to Canadians.
He needs to show himself as a visionary leader, not a reactive discontent.
He lost his Groove.
Trex
