Economist says Tories gave him incomplete platform

the caracal kid

the clan of the claw
Nov 28, 2005
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www.kdm.ca
Economist says Tories gave him incomplete platform
Updated Sun. Jan. 15 2006 4:28 PM ET

Canadian Press

OTTAWA — A prominent economist commissioned by the Conservatives to assess the financial soundness of their election platform says major items were omitted from the version he was given.

Paul Darby, deputy chief economist of the Conference Board of Canada, originally concluded that Stephen Harper's Conservative platform "is affordable in each fiscal year from 2005-2006 through 2010-2011."

The Conservative party promoted that conclusion last week as evidence its election platform had been "independently verified" by the Conference Board, an Ottawa-based think-tank.

But Darby says the version of the platform he was given to vet didn't include a Conservative party health-care guarantee which states patients will be transported to another jurisdiction if they can't get timely care at home.

It also omitted a Tory platform promise to redress the so-called "fiscal imbalance" between Ottawa and the provinces.

Darby wouldn't comment on whether the timely health-care guarantee would bear a significant cost.

"Talk to Harper," he said. "It is not in the platform I received from them."

It's also not clear what the Conservatives expect to pay to redress the fiscal imbalance - something the federal Liberals have argued doesn't really exist.

For years, the provinces have complained the federal government has an unfair share of the tax base and that they should therefore be given more "tax room" to cover their responsibilities in health and education.

Darby said he does not believe that either the health-care guarantee or the promise of fiscal rebalancing were serious commitments from the Conservatives.

"Those are two items that are not in what I was presented to analyze," he said. "I don't think, frankly, that those are in the platform, they're just under discussion.

"Those items were not costed, which leads me to believe that they're something that they're having under consideration that they're not committed to."

But Conservative finance critic Monte Solberg said both items are serious commitments.

The costs weren't included yet because they are still subject to discussions with the provinces should the Tories win power, he said.

"We're reluctant to put any numbers in precisely because it has to be negotiated," Solberg said.

Despite those holes, a Conservative news release says the party's platform is "fully budgeted - it maintains a balanced budget, every year, with money left over."

Add the Conservatives: "It has been independently verified by the Conference Board of Canada. . .is fully costed - it covers all our commitments."
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...m_060115/20060115?s_name=election2006&no_ads=
 

zoofer

Council Member
Dec 31, 2005
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Don't sweat it. The Conservative tax incentives will generate large government revenues. Investors will flock to the country. The currency will rise to par with the USD.
 

the caracal kid

the clan of the claw
Nov 28, 2005
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www.kdm.ca
"Investors will flock to the country."

you have the wrong direction.
investors are not going to flock to a country whose government can not balance its books. Harper can't even balance his platform costs given fixed economic expectations. Imagine him overseeing a live economy!

"The currency will rise to par with the USD."

Or more like the dollar will devalue as the national debt rises.
 

#juan

Hall of Fame Member
Aug 30, 2005
18,326
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Right at this moment,

Canada has a very healthy economy. Healthier, in fact, than her G-7 partners. Now the CPC are saying that their bunch of nebulous promises is going to boost the economy, cause investors to flock to the country, and bring the dollar up to parity with the USD. At this point I don't know if having a dollar at par with the USD is good for our economy. I see nothing in the CPC platform that will do anything but put ther country further in debt. One thing Martin has going for him is a whole string of balanced budgets, unlike the last tory in power in this country.
 

FiveParadox

Governor General
Dec 20, 2005
5,875
43
48
Vancouver, BC
Conservative Budget

Hear, hear.

If a Conservative Government of Canada interrupts our record of balanced budgets, in my opinion, the people of Canada are going to be extremely upset.
 

Jersay

House Member
Dec 1, 2005
4,837
2
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Independent Palestine
Exactly, and it doesn't seem that the economic situation of Canada will get any better under the Conservatives. I could see deficit if they are not under tight control.
 

Hank C

Electoral Member
Jan 4, 2006
953
0
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Calgary, AB
#juan said:
One thing Martin has going for him is a whole string of balanced budgets, unlike the last tory in power in this country.

yes but you have to understand economically the situation when Mulroney came to power.....Treudau was a horrible economist and left the Torys nothing to spend when they came in. The Liberal left the economy in a mess and Mulroney tryed to to spend their way out of the problem, but it got worse...don't forget the worldwide economic conditions in that era. I think Mulrony set the winning conditions for balanced budgets and on the debt..however the Liebrals were the one who benefitted from the GST, NAFTA..ect ect........ point in case the Liberals came in a the right time, it was a matter of timing.
 

Semperfi_dani

Electoral Member
Nov 1, 2005
482
0
16
Edmonton
RE: Economist says Tories

Well i work in an investment firm and the projections are that just because a conservative gov't will take power, it won't have that much impact on the economy or polls...the last time there was an election, and the con's were looking like they were leading the polls, than the market dropped.

But these are different days now. With the exceptions of bonds, which in relations to other things you can trade in like equities and mutual funds is pretty lame, everything is projected to stay the course, EVEN with a conservative win.

We are underestimating what a conservative gov't is capable of. It's a mistake to think that canada's conservatives are the same as america's.

Incidently, the dollar will climb into the 90 cent range and Oil will hit 100....all good news for canada. (less so about the dollar but that will be offset by the price of energy and resource stocks).

Trust me..the economy is far more stable than the government and far more likely to survive changes.
 

Semperfi_dani

Electoral Member
Nov 1, 2005
482
0
16
Edmonton
RE: Economist says Tories

Incidently..how can this guy sit there and diagnose what the economy will be based on election promises. There is no way he can know how the economy will shape up, or how the conservatives will actually govern, based on a few election promises... jumping the gun a bit i suspect.
 

#juan

Hall of Fame Member
Aug 30, 2005
18,326
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Reply with quote
#juan wrote:

One thing Martin has going for him is a whole string of balanced budgets, unlike the last tory in power in this country.
yes but you have to understand economically the situation when Mulroney came to power.....Treudau was a horrible economist and left the Torys nothing to spend when they came in.

Oh yeah, and Trudeau held a gun to Mulrony's head and forced him to spend 40 to 50 billion dollars more than he was bringing in in revenues every year, for nine years in a row. Damn that Trudeau. Kim Cambell handed Chretien a budget with a 46 billion dollar deficit, as well as a debt of 500 billion dollars or so but that was different, right?
 

zoofer

Council Member
Dec 31, 2005
1,274
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The Fibs have managed to get it up to over $600 billion. Nobody knows the real figures as it seems the Fiberals want to keep it secret.
For example; Consider a 500 BILLION dollar Canadian mortgage at an annul interest rate of 5% amortized for 20 years. If the interest rate drops to 4%, the monthly interest cost drops by 409 Million dollars which is almost 5 BILLION dollars savings per year. Canadians need to know these numbers
because the government would have 5 BILLION dollars more of our money at their disposal. Whether they pay down the debt or put it into other programs, we need to know. Its our money!

http://www.amortization.com/national_debt.htm
Could that be the reason for secrecy? A unaccounted slush fund?
For decades the government allowed the dollar to devalue to maintain productivity. High prices for raw materials and oil have reversed that trend.
 

FiveParadox

Governor General
Dec 20, 2005
5,875
43
48
Vancouver, BC
Incorrect Information

The Ministry of Finance has been quite clear.

During our most recent fiscal year, the Ministry announced that the national debt was at $499.9 billion. You are asserting that the Government somehow found a way to hide one-hundred billion dollars; this is, simply put and with all due respect, highly unrealistic.

Furthermore, the interest on the debt, per annum, is $35.8 billion; or, nineteen cents per dollar of revenue. The interest rate on the debt is somewhere in the area of seven percent, if I am not mistaken.
 

zoofer

Council Member
Dec 31, 2005
1,274
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I will accept your numbers thank you.

It seems the numbers were not announced in 2004 per the link. It figures that they will post better numbers as it is good news. They will fail to mention that it was paid down on the backs of overtaxed working people, the deprived military and downloading the healthcare costs to the Provinces. Certainly not by curtailing waste and embezzlement.
 

#juan

Hall of Fame Member
Aug 30, 2005
18,326
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They will fail to mention that it was paid down on the backs of overtaxed working people, the deprived military and downloading the healthcare costs to the Provinces. Certainly not by curtailing waste and embezzlement.

On who's back was the debt run up??? I suppose the Liberals could just have continued to pile up debt like Mulroney until the debt was 75 or 80 cents on every tax dollar but it had to stop somewhere. The ultimate blame for the debt rests squarely on the tories. The so-called Liberal scandals make up less than 2% of the budget, and a hell of a lot less than the tory debt.
 

KanBob

Nominee Member
Jan 11, 2006
71
0
6
Alberta
the caracal kid said:
Economist says Tories gave him incomplete platform
Updated Sun. Jan. 15 2006 4:28 PM ET

Canadian Press

OTTAWA — A prominent economist commissioned by the Conservatives to assess the financial soundness of their election platform says major items were omitted from the version he was given.

Paul Darby, deputy chief economist of the Conference Board of Canada, originally concluded that Stephen Harper's Conservative platform "is affordable in each fiscal year from 2005-2006 through 2010-2011."

Nice Try.

Here is the latest from Paul Darby:

Today Paul Darby, Deputy Chief Economist of the Conference Board of Canada, confirmed to us that his original analysis of the Conservative Party of Canada’s election plan released January 13, 2006, remains unchanged:

"In summary, we found that the Conservative Party’s economic platform is affordable in each fiscal year from 2005-2006 through 2010-2011. In each year there is enough fiscal room to pay down at least $3 billion a year in debt, as in the [Conservative] fiscal plan.

"Over the five-year forecast horizon to 2010-11, the CBoC economic and fiscal outlook suggests that there remains $15.7 billion in unallocated fiscal room, over and above the $3 billion annual debt payment, which provides further cushion to ensure that deficits do not occur due to adverse economic events."

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has always made it clear that the details of the fiscal imbalance will be negotiated with the provinces and that surplus revenues exist in the Conservative plan to deal with this issue.

Mr. Harper has said on numerous occasions that the Patient Health Care Guarantee will be paid for from existing budgetary resources.
 

zoofer

Council Member
Dec 31, 2005
1,274
2
38
Rubbish.
Trudeau started deficit financing in the early seventies. It was a fact of government life when the Tories finally got elected. As someone mentioned before, Myron put all the means in place to create wealth. Nafta and the cash cow GST. Note the Fibs said they would repeal them but have not.
Even Mickey Mouse could have balanced the budgets and paid a small percentage on the debt with that flow of tax dollars.
 

FiveParadox

Governor General
Dec 20, 2005
5,875
43
48
Vancouver, BC
In this case, I am at a loss as to which document in which to vest my trust. The first is dated for January 15, and with a timestamp for early evening; the second is dated for the same, but with no timestamp. lol, this is perhaps a matter of chronology.
 

KanBob

Nominee Member
Jan 11, 2006
71
0
6
Alberta
On another note, one thing Mulroney did accomplish that has mostly gone unnoticed is that in the last few years, he actual ran surpluses in the current account. That is, government program spending did not exceed government revenues. What killed the budget was the interest payments on the debt. If you remember back then (and I sure do!) interest rates were around 10% - 12%. If you had a mortgage you'll remember!

As the economy expanded, and as interest rates declined, it became easier for the government to make the interest payments on the debt. Falling interest rates easily saved $15 billion a year or more in interest payments.