Quote: Originally Posted by bluealbertaHere is the historical exchange rate for the Canadian dollar vis-a-vis the US dollar. My source is The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Foreigh Exchange Rates Historical Search. I got the rates for every six months, June and December and also got the high and low during this period.
Holy cow, I'm too slow for this site.

Or you guys are too fast. I think there are ten pages ahead of me Ooops, probably 11 by now.
Not to nitpick, it's only because it's public, not a pm or email between you and I, but Federal Reserve Banks (FRBs) are branches of the U.S. Federal Reserve and they provide financial services (see --) for districts. The one you found covers New York (state), Northern New Jersey, Fairfield County in Connecticut, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.
The Federal Reserve sets monetary policy and then distributes Federal Reserve Notes (USD) to Federal Reserve Banks (and others; it's a bit more complicated than Canada's system but it's necessary given the usage of the USD), charging them interest, which they cover by selling bonds and other financial services; almost as though they're commercial financial institutions.
None of them distribute Candian currency, nothing that they lend (seem to sell but currency and other things based on it, stocks, bonds, t-bills, certificates (securities), coupons, etc., can't be destroyed, only traded, unless they're Enron stocks or the like) because it's illegal. The Bank of Canada (BOC) is the sole note-issuing authority (and even copyright holder for anyone who wants to complain about "design"

) for Canadian Bank Notes and it sets the interest rate (Bank Rate) for them, not the Fed or any FRB or commercial U.S. financial institution. Canadian currency is not legal tender in the U.S.; only in Canada.
You can't "buy" currency, let alone off a central bank (unless you're a financial institution, then you can borrow it at the rate the central bank is charging; or FRB as the case may be) so even if an American wants to "buy" Canadian currency, in reality they have to trade something for it and probably U.S. Federal Reserve Notes. Then the interest is due (whatever the Fed happens to be charging on currency) and has to be paid by whatever exchanges the Fed's note (eventually, a financial institution making the transaction, anywhere in the world, which is why it's good to have others using/trading your currency; it makes money -- like oil being priced in USD forces everything to trade USD for oil, a financial transaction, paying the Fed interest) for the Canadian Bank Note, which has to be borrowed from the Bank of Canada at whatever interest rate
it's charging.
Then, if you're an American with notes from the Bank of Canada and trade the Canadian Bank Notes for a case of beer in Canada, a financial transaction has been made and the interest on the Canadian currency is due (when whatever selling the beer deposits it into a commercial financial institution, it becomes part of the bank/financial instituton's deposit, which they have to pay the Bank of Canada interest on: and everyone passes the costs on to the consumers as usual but it's quite necessary).
It's one way they control inflation; by making it more (or less) attractive to trade the curency for anything outside our own economy, or even to trade it for a house or new elecronics/machinery/whatever in our economy if the BOC raises the Bank Rate, passing the costs on to every financial institution, causing them to raise their lending rates.
And inflation isn't just the Consumer Price Index, which is only one measure of it, and can be deflation, but it's always called inflation and the BOC's target range for inflation (overall economic growth by their mesures, which you can find on their web site) is 1% at the low end (cut the Bank Rate to increase spending/production), 3% at the high end (raise the Bank Rate to decrease spending/production) to get inflation back in the target range of 1-3%, with 2% inflation being "the best". Not too high, not too low, right in the middle of the target range -- from one policy session to the next.
There's really no way to know what the Canadian dollar is worth (it's worth exactly $1.00; in Canada, always just as a US dollar is worth exactly $1.00 in the US, always

), without working on both ends; like what it costs to trade 1 CAD for 1 USD from here and vice versa and it'll never match up due to interest rate differentials (at the least) between central banks.
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The above has links to tell you what you'd have to pay in Canadian currency for other currencies along with historical information.
Exchange rates are expressed in Canadian dollars, which still means nothing without the interest rate differential if it's taken alone.
If you select USD you'll get what you'd have to pay in CAD to exchange into USD, which is like a conversation between the BOC and the Fed; but electronically. Dec 30, 1994, for example, you would have had to pay (if you were a financial institution in the U.S. trading USD for CAD, via the Bank of Canada and the Fed or one of its banks. Federal Reserve Banks, that aren't commercial banks but sort of act like it):
1.4018
Over 40 cents more, so does that mean that the Canadian dollar was worth 0.5982 cents U.S. at the close of 1994? Yes and no. It depends which end you're on.
It was:
1.2661
as of 20 May 2005 (at closing), the latest available, nothing is (was when I looked) available yet from the BOC for today's (now yesterday's, I got interrupted wih real life things) close and they skip weekends.
US$0.7339 is what the Canadian dollar was worth at Friday's close?
US$0.7889 is what I recall off the top of my head. But from which end according to what interest rate?
1.2661 CAD it's what you would have had to pay the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve to exchange/trade 1 CAD for 1 USD (or anything based on CAD/USD), due to the interest rate differential: if you were a Federal Reserve Bank in the U.S. More at a commercial institution.
Nothing ever "adds up" exchanging/trading currency. Aside from currency speculators and everything else that trades and affects economies, central banks have different interest rates, which are passed onto commercial financial institutions, because they have to pay their central banks the interest on their deposit, eventually in the U.S., and they have to cover their costs (commercial institutions) and turn a profit.
After much study I found that the Beer Store (owned and operated by the breweries) in Ontario had the best deal on U.S. currency trading around.
But then I told everyone and now their rates suck. USD for Canadian beer; no bank would match the exchange rate, let alone trade USD for beer. And I did get my change in Canadian currency -- and lots more of it than I would have got back from any bank around. What they were doing with the U.S. currency to be offering the best exchange rates around, at the consumer/commercial level, no one would ever tell me. It probably had something to do with beer.
You're showing trends and as long as they come from the same place it's all that matters but it's not what the Canadian dollar was worth; other than at that FRB, and if you were an FRB, then that's what you would have had to pay to get a Canadian dollar turned into an American dollar. But you can see the difference vice versa at the Bank of Canada's site. We're paying more to buy American whatever, anything based on the USD than anything in the U.S. is paying for anything based on the CAD. Email the Bank of Canada to find out why. Or see if the manager of your local bank branch knows.
And ... the Bank of Canada (and Fed) is based on the Bank of England. A private corporation that has nothing to do with the feds. They can't tell the BOC what to do anymore than Congress can tell the Fed what to do. And all of them (the Group of Seven/G7 for starters) have more control over financial markets than any elected feds do.
Greenspan doesn't go ask Congress or the Exec Branch (which would be quite inappropriate without involving the Congress) if it's okay to give a speech and release the Fed's summary of the U.S. economy and future trends (that tend to come true), changes to interest rates, how much currency is in circulation or anything else. The U.S. government (treasury) has to borrow off the Federal Reserve to cover debts, and has to pay interest to the Fed.
So do we. American currency (in whatever forms) is what's stuck in just about every treasury on the planet to cover debts and surpluses. So when the Canadian dollar goes up, in relation to the USD, it effectively lowers the interest rate that we have to pay, not the Fed, it's not a commercial bank, but the NY financiers that underwrite Canada's national (public; not to be confused with credit card debts, mortages or anything else from commercial financial institutions) debt. We pay less for American currency and the interest rate is "lower" because the value of the Canadian dollar is higher in relation to what our debt is covered by; American currency.
Which is good, because it frees up revenues for other things, while still paying the "the same" (in CAD) on public debts. But it also raises the costs of all exports from the Canadas, which are called imports on the U.S. end. And possibly decreases cross-border shopping (from the U.S. to whatever they go to across the border) and possibly international tourism.
But the UN World Health Organization slapping a public world-wide travel advisory on Toronto in 2003 did more economic damage, followed by a 5 and 6 day blackout, thousands of cancelled business trips, dozens of cancelled conventions, and tourism too, than any raise in the value of the Canadian dollar could have done.
Lots of things happen that affect economies other than what worthless politicians do.
As I said and did in the last post, you have to get economic reports and business news, just here let alone in the U.S. (then all over the world due to the U.S. economy), to find out what is causing a currency or economy if it's long-term, to rise or fall against another: and currency trading/exchange rates aren't always the best measure and are never a measure alone.
Quote: Originally Posted by bluealbertaWhere rates were basically the same for a long time, I summarized:
...
The low was 62 cents in January, 2002, and the high was 85 cents in November, 2004.
So, from January, 1994 - June, 1997, the dollar was stable at around the 73 cent mark. However, from June, 1997 - December, 2002, the dollar fell steadily and stayed around the 65 - 66 cent range on average. In 2003 the dollar started to rise. Coincidentally, in 2003, Chretien announced he would retire in Feb/2004.The dollar contiuned to rise at the same time there was confirmation of an election. It continued to rise under a minority govenrment until November, 2004, when again ...
You have found a
recession. And it didn't start in 1997 and you're looking at it from the U.S. end, not our end, and based solely on currency.
Quote: I: INTRODUCTION
The severe economic fallout of the early 1990s recession represented a watershed in the evolution of the Ontario and, within the province, the role of Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Four years after the onset of the recession, Ontario’s employment still languished at roughly 96% of its pre-recession peak. And employment in the GTA fell by nearly 10% from peak to trough.
On the fiscal front the economic fallout was nothing short of spectacular: Ontario’s governing New Democratic Party (Canada’s version of a social democratic party) oversaw five consecutive years (1990-95) of deficits in excess of $10 billion, for an overall increase in government debt of nearly $60 billion, surely a record for a sub-national government, anywhere, anytime. Thus, by 1995, Canada’s most powerful and populous province(1) was verging on “fiscalamity”.
With the election in 1995 of Mike Harris and his fiscally conservative and market-oriented Progressive Conservative party, the role of Ontario (and Toronto) within Canada and North America
changed in a dramatic and irreversible manner.
Ontario effectively transcended the erstwhile conception of itself as the economic and cultural focal point for an east-west economy and turned its attention and its policy arsenal to take advantage of the emerging opportunities ushered in by the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and by NAFTA....
Quote has been trimmed
RESPONDING TO THE NAFTA CHALLENGE: ONTARIO AS A NORTH AMERICAN REGION STATE
AND TORONTO AS A GLOBAL CITY-REGION
Paper Prepared for
Global City-Regions Conference
UCLA School of Public Policy and Social Research
Los Angeles, October 21-23, 1999
PDF --
Ontario (south as usual) turned itself upside down and re-invented itself in the time period you're talking about, it was running a $60 billion deficit from the first (and hopefully only) time the NDP got control of Ontario, was on public notice from the World Bank that if it didn't get its ecnomic house in order it would be slapped with a Third World credit rating/interest rate, and the NDP discovered what pays for "the working man" and unions along with other insanity, running up $10 billion deficits every year for five years, in a recession.
But the recession was still going when Mike Harris took over in 1995 with the
Common Sense Revolution, and paid the deficit off the only way Toronto let alone Ontario can -- with no help from this "federation", ever, no breaks in the tax raping and plundering by the "federation", so by selling off/privatizing everything that could be privatized, cutting everything that could be cut, slashing and burning the rest.
Quote: ...
On May 3, 1994, Harris unveiled his aggressive "Common Sense Revolution" platform, which was inspired by the United States Republican Party's "Contract with America," although free of much of its social conservatism [religion: it gets in the way of capitalism]. It called for sweeping spending cuts and large tax cuts.
By 1995, the governing New Democratic Party and incumbent Premier Bob Rae had become extremely unpopular with the electorate, largely because of the state of the Ontario and North American economies. The Liberals were leading in the pre-election polls, but after running a disastrously poor campaign began to lose support. Harris was elected with a sizeable majority government in the 1995 election. Roughly half of his party's seats came from the more affluent regions of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), especially the suburban belt surrounding Metro Toronto, often called the '905' for its telephone area code.
...
--
And he didn't cut taxes "too early", Chretien hated his guts. Harris was very "un-Canadian", not that there was any choice, and what if it worked and caught on? There was and still is a phase II to the
Common Sense Revolution that nothing in the world could believe was happening, let alone at the sub-national government level, not that "Canada" noticed, Ontario was out of commission during the years you happened across and Chretien is to blame for a lot of it, but the NDP ... it's a factor for the harper. Talking the talk doesn't amount to being able to walk the walk.
After turning the province upside-down, and leading the G7 in economic growth, as planned, expanding the tax base to end up from a $60+ billion deficit in 1995 to an accidental surplus (and small; nothing like "conservative" Alberta's massive over-taxation; $375 million at the end of fiscal 2000-01 and with over 11 million people, not the $7,800 million surplus the Alberta "conservatives" ran up on less than 3 million Albertans in over-taxation in the same year; then bitched to "the feds" to build some rapid transit system in Edmonton while Toronto was on year 16 of trying to install a new subway line with property taxes, while the Ontario and confederated feds downloaded their own expenses onto Toronto city hall and still do), then shrugged off the ongoing U.S./Canada/world recession (which is how Ontario ended up leading the G7 in economic growth) ... it was time to put the extra revenues back into rebuilding after disemboweling Ontario but Chretien hated Harris (and the feeling was mutual) and took all the extra revenues from Ontario and it's still sitting around waiting to rebuild while this "federation" plunders it of tens of billions of tax dollars a year.
C-78 won't fix it but it's better than the kick in the teeth Manning, Day, Harper have been inadvertently promising us forever out of ignorance and the fact that most of their support is rural: which is a problem because the majority of Canadians live in cities. And cities generate most of the revenues.
If only the harper got in then... what? He doesn't even know. He's committed to the same spending in C-78, now that he knows it's what the majority of Canadians want and economic analysts don't see too much of a problem with the spending as long as the economy keeps chugging along, there will be a whopping federal over-taxation "surplus" (real Conservatives with capitalist C's call "surpluses" over-taxation; pass it around -- to Klein) in the next five years. If not, well the harper has committed to the same spending -- and tax cuts too. And free lollipops for everyone and along with sounding like the NDP, that is just plain freaking economists out -- while he also tries to bitch about "liberal deficits" and I have no use for any of them but if anyone is Mr. Dithers it's the harper. I've never seen such ridiculous songs and dances in my life, other than from the NDP.
Quote: Originally Posted by bluealbertacoincidentally, reports from Gomery started to come out more publicly. Since then, the dollar has fallen again, to its present level, and fell after the NDP/Liberal deal was made.
No cooincidence and you just blew your entire argument. It's the only time that politics started to affect the dollar, and moderately, not from 85 to 62 cents. Recall your original claim that the dollar was at 62 cents U.S. 8 months ago and only started to rise due to the "possibility of another government" (which one, with a handle such as bluealberta?

) taking over.
But how do you explain that testimony that would seem to conclude the harper taking over as PM ended up DROPPING the dollar?
Shouldn't the dollar have gone UP over this wonderful revelation by investors? "Finally that corrupt bunch of 'liberals' are on the way out ... so let's SELL Canadian investments to show how happy we are about it!"
Everything negative that has led to the potential of the "liberals" getting kicked out and the "conservatives" taking over has DROPPED the value of the Canadian dollar.
When Stronach left the "conservatives" the dollar went UP not down.
When Parrish (already known to be voting FOR C-78 not against it with the "conservatives" and Bloc) ended up in the hospital the morning of the vote and the Canadian dollar DROPPED.
When the news came out that she was released and was able to vote the dollar went UP.
That's a vote of non-confidence by international investors
against the "conservatives" not for them.