Quebec still torn on future in Canada
By BRIAN LAGHI
Saturday, October 22, 2005 Posted at 3:07 AM EDT
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Quebeckers are just as divided over independence as they were a decade ago, although they would comfortably vote to stay in Canada if the question were put to them clearly and directly, a new poll indicates.
Ten years after the referendum that almost broke Canada in two, Quebeckers say they would vote to remain in Confederation if asked clearly whether they want to secede. But the survey also finds a stubborn attachment to sovereignty despite the breathing space of a decade, indicating that federalist forces have failed to erode sentiment for independence.
“It's a little bit ‘the glass is half full, the glass is half empty,' ” said Allan Gregg, chairman of the Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll for The Globe and Mail and CTV News. “But the sad part, from someone who is an unrepentant Canadian, is that after 10 years, we have not created one scintilla of a greater bond with Quebeckers than we had when were on the verge of near-death.”
Asked how Quebeckers would vote if they faced a question similar to the one posed in 1995, 48 per cent said they would opt for the Yes side, compared with 47 per cent who would vote No. The other five per cent didn't know.
And on a related question of whether Quebeckers are in favour of holding another referendum, 49 per cent said they were while 48 per cent were not. Moreover, 59 per cent of Quebeckers surveyed said they believed the Yes forces would win the next referendum. In the rest of the country, 49 per cent of Canadians believed a majority of Quebeckers would vote Yes in another referendum while 44 per cent said they would vote No.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians between Oct. 6 and 13 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 95 per cent of the time.
The Quebec sample comprised 500 individuals. The results come just a week before the anniversary of the 1995 referendum, in which sovereignty was defeated 50.6 per cent to 49.4 per cent.
Mr. Gregg said the results demonstrate that the past 10 years have “created a whole new generation of prospective sovereigntists.”
The results were, however, leavened by findings that a majority of Quebeckers would vote No if asked directly about secession.
That appears to back Ottawa's decision to create the Clarity Act, which allows the House of Commons to override a referendum result if it deems the question unclear or if results are not supported by a clear majority. The act also states that any question not solely referring to secession would be considered too ambiguous.
The poll found that 66 per cent of Quebeckers and 68 per cent of the rest of the country support the requirement for a clear question. When asked whether they would vote “to secede from Canada to become an independent country,” 53 per cent said No, compared with only 43 per cent who said Yes. Another 4 per cent didn't know.
“I think there is an appetite for finality right now,” Mr. Gregg said. “An appetite not simply in English Canada, but even in Quebec.”
He added Canadians might “thank their lucky stars” for the Clarity Act, which many assumed would harm the federalist cause.
The closeness of the 1995 outcome shocked the nation and many federalist politicians, who, five years later, passed the act. Many characterized the referendum question as muddy and blamed it for the tight outcome.
It read: “Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign, after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership, within the scope of the Bill Respecting the Future of Quebec, and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995.”
(The June 12 agreement pledged that the Parti Québécois, the Bloc Québécois and Action Démocratique du Québec work together to achieve such a partnership with the rest of Canada after a Yes vote.)
While the polling results on the need for a clear question might be heartening for federalists, the poll also finds a clear divide between Quebec and the rest of the country on what constitutes a majority.
Fifty per cent of Quebeckers said a simple majority of 50 per cent plus one is enough for the province to leave Canada, while 74 per cent in the rest of Canada said it was not. Of those who said a simple majority was not enough, 54 per cent said the bar should be set at more than 70 per cent. Mr. Gregg said that demonstrates that Canadians outside the province wouldn't accept the outcome if the Yes side won by a simple majority.
That said, the Canadian voting public appears sanguine about the possibility of a breakup, with 76 per cent telling pollsters they'd be willing to negotiate a new partnership with an independent Quebec.
On the question of whether Quebeckers feel more sovereigntist or more federalist over the past 10 years, 60 per cent said they haven't changed their views. Twenty-three 23 per cent said they were more likely to support sovereignty, while 16 per cent were more prone to the federalist argument.And on a related question of whether Quebeckers are in favour of holding another referendum, 49 per cent said they were while 48 per cent were not. Moreover, 59 per cent of Quebeckers surveyed said they believed the Yes forces would win the next referendum. In the rest of the country, 49 per cent of Canadians believed a majority of Quebeckers would vote Yes in another referendum while 44 per cent said they would vote No.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians between Oct. 6 and 13 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 95 per cent of the time.
The Quebec sample comprised 500 individuals. The results come just a week before the anniversary of the 1995 referendum, in which sovereignty was defeated 50.6 per cent to 49.4 per cent.
Mr. Gregg said the results demonstrate that the past 10 years have “created a whole new generation of prospective sovereigntists.”
The results were, however, leavened by findings that a majority of Quebeckers would vote No if asked directly about secession.
That appears to back Ottawa's decision to create the Clarity Act, which allows the House of Commons to override a referendum result if it deems the question unclear or if results are not supported by a clear majority. The act also states that any question not solely referring to secession would be considered too ambiguous.
The poll found that 66 per cent of Quebeckers and 68 per cent of the rest of the country support the requirement for a clear question. When asked whether they would vote “to secede from Canada to become an independent country,” 53 per cent said No, compared with only 43 per cent who said Yes. Another 4 per cent didn't know.
“I think there is an appetite for finality right now,” Mr. Gregg said. “An appetite not simply in English Canada, but even in Quebec.”
He added Canadians might “thank their lucky stars” for the Clarity Act, which many assumed would harm the federalist cause.
The closeness of the 1995 outcome shocked the nation and many federalist politicians, who, five years later, passed the act. Many characterized the referendum question as muddy and blamed it for the tight outcome.
It read: “Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign, after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership, within the scope of the Bill Respecting the Future of Quebec, and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995.”
(The June 12 agreement pledged that the Parti Québécois, the Bloc Québécois and Action Démocratique du Québec work together to achieve such a partnership with the rest of Canada after a Yes vote.)
While the polling results on the need for a clear question might be heartening for federalists, the poll also finds a clear divide between Quebec and the rest of the country on what constitutes a majority.
Fifty per cent of Quebeckers said a simple majority of 50 per cent plus one is enough for the province to leave Canada, while 74 per cent in the rest of Canada said it was not. Of those who said a simple majority was not enough, 54 per cent said the bar should be set at more than 70 per cent. Mr. Gregg said that demonstrates that Canadians outside the province wouldn't accept the outcome if the Yes side won by a simple majority.
That said, the Canadian voting public appears sanguine about the possibility of a breakup, with 76 per cent telling pollsters they'd be willing to negotiate a new partnership with an independent Quebec.
On the question of whether Quebeckers feel more sovereigntist or more federalist over the past 10 years, 60 per cent said they haven't changed their views. Twenty-three 23 per cent said they were more likely to support sovereignty, while 16 per cent were more prone to the federalist argument.
By BRIAN LAGHI
Saturday, October 22, 2005 Posted at 3:07 AM EDT
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Quebeckers are just as divided over independence as they were a decade ago, although they would comfortably vote to stay in Canada if the question were put to them clearly and directly, a new poll indicates.
Ten years after the referendum that almost broke Canada in two, Quebeckers say they would vote to remain in Confederation if asked clearly whether they want to secede. But the survey also finds a stubborn attachment to sovereignty despite the breathing space of a decade, indicating that federalist forces have failed to erode sentiment for independence.
“It's a little bit ‘the glass is half full, the glass is half empty,' ” said Allan Gregg, chairman of the Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll for The Globe and Mail and CTV News. “But the sad part, from someone who is an unrepentant Canadian, is that after 10 years, we have not created one scintilla of a greater bond with Quebeckers than we had when were on the verge of near-death.”
Asked how Quebeckers would vote if they faced a question similar to the one posed in 1995, 48 per cent said they would opt for the Yes side, compared with 47 per cent who would vote No. The other five per cent didn't know.
And on a related question of whether Quebeckers are in favour of holding another referendum, 49 per cent said they were while 48 per cent were not. Moreover, 59 per cent of Quebeckers surveyed said they believed the Yes forces would win the next referendum. In the rest of the country, 49 per cent of Canadians believed a majority of Quebeckers would vote Yes in another referendum while 44 per cent said they would vote No.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians between Oct. 6 and 13 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 95 per cent of the time.
The Quebec sample comprised 500 individuals. The results come just a week before the anniversary of the 1995 referendum, in which sovereignty was defeated 50.6 per cent to 49.4 per cent.
Mr. Gregg said the results demonstrate that the past 10 years have “created a whole new generation of prospective sovereigntists.”
The results were, however, leavened by findings that a majority of Quebeckers would vote No if asked directly about secession.
That appears to back Ottawa's decision to create the Clarity Act, which allows the House of Commons to override a referendum result if it deems the question unclear or if results are not supported by a clear majority. The act also states that any question not solely referring to secession would be considered too ambiguous.
The poll found that 66 per cent of Quebeckers and 68 per cent of the rest of the country support the requirement for a clear question. When asked whether they would vote “to secede from Canada to become an independent country,” 53 per cent said No, compared with only 43 per cent who said Yes. Another 4 per cent didn't know.
“I think there is an appetite for finality right now,” Mr. Gregg said. “An appetite not simply in English Canada, but even in Quebec.”
He added Canadians might “thank their lucky stars” for the Clarity Act, which many assumed would harm the federalist cause.
The closeness of the 1995 outcome shocked the nation and many federalist politicians, who, five years later, passed the act. Many characterized the referendum question as muddy and blamed it for the tight outcome.
It read: “Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign, after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership, within the scope of the Bill Respecting the Future of Quebec, and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995.”
(The June 12 agreement pledged that the Parti Québécois, the Bloc Québécois and Action Démocratique du Québec work together to achieve such a partnership with the rest of Canada after a Yes vote.)
While the polling results on the need for a clear question might be heartening for federalists, the poll also finds a clear divide between Quebec and the rest of the country on what constitutes a majority.
Fifty per cent of Quebeckers said a simple majority of 50 per cent plus one is enough for the province to leave Canada, while 74 per cent in the rest of Canada said it was not. Of those who said a simple majority was not enough, 54 per cent said the bar should be set at more than 70 per cent. Mr. Gregg said that demonstrates that Canadians outside the province wouldn't accept the outcome if the Yes side won by a simple majority.
That said, the Canadian voting public appears sanguine about the possibility of a breakup, with 76 per cent telling pollsters they'd be willing to negotiate a new partnership with an independent Quebec.
On the question of whether Quebeckers feel more sovereigntist or more federalist over the past 10 years, 60 per cent said they haven't changed their views. Twenty-three 23 per cent said they were more likely to support sovereignty, while 16 per cent were more prone to the federalist argument.And on a related question of whether Quebeckers are in favour of holding another referendum, 49 per cent said they were while 48 per cent were not. Moreover, 59 per cent of Quebeckers surveyed said they believed the Yes forces would win the next referendum. In the rest of the country, 49 per cent of Canadians believed a majority of Quebeckers would vote Yes in another referendum while 44 per cent said they would vote No.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians between Oct. 6 and 13 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 95 per cent of the time.
The Quebec sample comprised 500 individuals. The results come just a week before the anniversary of the 1995 referendum, in which sovereignty was defeated 50.6 per cent to 49.4 per cent.
Mr. Gregg said the results demonstrate that the past 10 years have “created a whole new generation of prospective sovereigntists.”
The results were, however, leavened by findings that a majority of Quebeckers would vote No if asked directly about secession.
That appears to back Ottawa's decision to create the Clarity Act, which allows the House of Commons to override a referendum result if it deems the question unclear or if results are not supported by a clear majority. The act also states that any question not solely referring to secession would be considered too ambiguous.
The poll found that 66 per cent of Quebeckers and 68 per cent of the rest of the country support the requirement for a clear question. When asked whether they would vote “to secede from Canada to become an independent country,” 53 per cent said No, compared with only 43 per cent who said Yes. Another 4 per cent didn't know.
“I think there is an appetite for finality right now,” Mr. Gregg said. “An appetite not simply in English Canada, but even in Quebec.”
He added Canadians might “thank their lucky stars” for the Clarity Act, which many assumed would harm the federalist cause.
The closeness of the 1995 outcome shocked the nation and many federalist politicians, who, five years later, passed the act. Many characterized the referendum question as muddy and blamed it for the tight outcome.
It read: “Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign, after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership, within the scope of the Bill Respecting the Future of Quebec, and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995.”
(The June 12 agreement pledged that the Parti Québécois, the Bloc Québécois and Action Démocratique du Québec work together to achieve such a partnership with the rest of Canada after a Yes vote.)
While the polling results on the need for a clear question might be heartening for federalists, the poll also finds a clear divide between Quebec and the rest of the country on what constitutes a majority.
Fifty per cent of Quebeckers said a simple majority of 50 per cent plus one is enough for the province to leave Canada, while 74 per cent in the rest of Canada said it was not. Of those who said a simple majority was not enough, 54 per cent said the bar should be set at more than 70 per cent. Mr. Gregg said that demonstrates that Canadians outside the province wouldn't accept the outcome if the Yes side won by a simple majority.
That said, the Canadian voting public appears sanguine about the possibility of a breakup, with 76 per cent telling pollsters they'd be willing to negotiate a new partnership with an independent Quebec.
On the question of whether Quebeckers feel more sovereigntist or more federalist over the past 10 years, 60 per cent said they haven't changed their views. Twenty-three 23 per cent said they were more likely to support sovereignty, while 16 per cent were more prone to the federalist argument.
