Herman Cain.
This gets a little wonkish, so read if it doesn't bore you.
Cain would be my educated guess. It's becoming more clear that the "anti-Romney" candidate is going to win the first primary contest, Iowa. That state has a total 28 delegates, which I'm assuming the anti-Romney/Cain will win all of, even if you take into account the different ways they award them (10 for the statewide winner; 12 divided among 4 Congressional districts; and 6 bonus delegates).
The next primary state would be New Hampshire, a strong Romney-supporting state. The problem for Romney is that NH only has 12 delegates total, and even that is awarded proportionally. If Cain, or any other candidate, gets over 10% of the vote, they will be entitled to at least 1 delegate.
The next primary state is South Carolina, which I place as being remarkably similar to Iowa. Anti-Romney/Cain would win nearly all of SC's 25 delegates.
Next comes Florida where polls show Romney and Cain running neck and neck in statewide polling. 50 delegates will be awarded from here (5 to the statewide winner; 40 divided among 27 Congressional districts; and 5 bonuses). Split the Congressional districts evenly, and for the sake of argument give Romney the 5 statewide delegates and the 5 bonuses).
Adding all that up ...
Cain/Anti-Romney 28 + 1 + 25 + 20 = 74 delegates.
Romney 11 + 10 = 21 delegates.
So, by the end of January 2012, I can only conclude the Not Romney candidate is going to have a big lead in the delegate count.
This gets a little wonkish, so read if it doesn't bore you.
Cain would be my educated guess. It's becoming more clear that the "anti-Romney" candidate is going to win the first primary contest, Iowa. That state has a total 28 delegates, which I'm assuming the anti-Romney/Cain will win all of, even if you take into account the different ways they award them (10 for the statewide winner; 12 divided among 4 Congressional districts; and 6 bonus delegates).
The next primary state would be New Hampshire, a strong Romney-supporting state. The problem for Romney is that NH only has 12 delegates total, and even that is awarded proportionally. If Cain, or any other candidate, gets over 10% of the vote, they will be entitled to at least 1 delegate.
The next primary state is South Carolina, which I place as being remarkably similar to Iowa. Anti-Romney/Cain would win nearly all of SC's 25 delegates.
Next comes Florida where polls show Romney and Cain running neck and neck in statewide polling. 50 delegates will be awarded from here (5 to the statewide winner; 40 divided among 27 Congressional districts; and 5 bonuses). Split the Congressional districts evenly, and for the sake of argument give Romney the 5 statewide delegates and the 5 bonuses).
Adding all that up ...
Cain/Anti-Romney 28 + 1 + 25 + 20 = 74 delegates.
Romney 11 + 10 = 21 delegates.
So, by the end of January 2012, I can only conclude the Not Romney candidate is going to have a big lead in the delegate count.
