What's next in the US/Israel Iran/Syria proxy war?

[earth_as_one]

Rather than just continuing to simmer, I think its just a matter of time until the next big flare up in the middle east. Anyone care to speculate what will happen next?

The Lebanon conflict proved Israel is vulnerable to Hezbollah's tactics.

Right now Gaza is more or less in open warfare. This articles suggests that Gaza could become a "second Lebanon"

Israel threatens to step up deadly Gaza offensive ​

JERUSALEM –– Vowing not to let the Gaza Strip become a "second Lebanon", Israel warned Sunday it will step up an offensive that has killed 22 people in three days in a bid to stop rocket fire and arms smuggling...

http://www.timesofoman.com/newsdetails.asp?newsid=36596

Arms are coming into Gaza. Probably many of the same type used so effectively against Israel in Lebanon this summer. One can assume they are being stockpiled for future use...

Syria probably has their stockpiles too. Assad recently speculated about Syria retaking the Golan heights by force.

Kuwait Times
Oct 15, 2006

DAMASCUS: Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has said that a war with archenemy Israel cannot be ruled out as long as a lasting peace in the Middle East is not achieved, with the Jewish state denouncing his words as a "threat". "In principle, we (always) expect that there will be an Israeli aggression at any time. We all know that Israel is militarily powerful and is backed directly by the United States," Assad said in an interview with Kuwait's Al-Anbaa daily published on Saturday. "We can't debate whether to be prepared or unprepared. We must remain always prepared," Assad said, with a political advisor to Israeli Defence Minister Amir Peretz warning his country should think about the president's "menacing declarations"...

http://www.kuwaittimes.net/Navariednews.asp?dismode=article&artid=1167015880

Its also possible what happened in Lebanon was just round one:

Hezbollah's arsenal
Hezbollah's impressive arsenal has taken some professional observers and large parts of the news media by surprise, though as yet many of its potentially most lethal weapons have not been used and probably won't be until a full-scale Israeli invasion has been launched.

They are believed to have significant quantities of Russian AT-5 Spandrel, AT-3 Sagger, a few AT-10 and a number of US TOW anti-tank guided missiles. Huge numbers of Russian RPG-7 and the Iranian-built version, the Saghegh, with a lethal 80mm tandem HEAT warhead, 82mm B-I0 and 107mm B-11 recoilless anti-tank guns, supplement 60mm, 82mm and 120mm mortars, vast numbers of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines of Chinese, Russian, Italian and Iranian origin.

Plentiful quantities of explosives and a proven ability to produce highly effective improvised explosive devices (IEDs - booby-traps and road side bombs) round out the inventory. It also has SA-7 and perhaps some SA-14-man portable surface-to-air missiles and twin 23mm ZSU anti-aircraft guns in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley...

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HG25Ak03.html

Also Iran has become a major source of effective man portable munitions which have effectively changed modern warfare.

Misaq II Production Launched

The mass production of the missile named Misaq II was launched at a ceremony attended by Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar in Tehran on Monday. (ILNA Photo)

TEHRAN, Feb. 6, 2006 --For the first time in the country, mass production of a new and advanced air defense missiles began on Monday.
According to a report by Defense Ministry’s Propagation Bureau, the mass production of the missile named ’Misaq II’ was launched at a ceremony attended by Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar in the ministry’s Aerospace Industries premises.
The missile is capable of destroying targets that cannot be detected on the radar screen due for flying at low altitudes. It can be used in electronic warfare.
Speaking during the inauguration ceremony, Mohammad-Najjar said the missile will be utilized by different military units, including the Islamic Revolution’s Guards Corps and Basij (volunteer forces), significantly boosting their flexibility and agility.
He said Iran’s aerospace industry is currently mass producing surface-to-air, surface-to-surface and air-to-surface missiles.
“The Defense Ministry today supplies the Armed Forces with more than 1,700 defense products,“ Mohammad-Najjar said.

http://www.iran-daily.com/1384/2495/html/national.htm

This weapon is the main reason why Hezbollah stopped Israel's invasion plans.

RPG-29: The Great Equalizer
At the beginning of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict, the main Israeli concern was a report that Hezbollah possessed Russian Kornet antitank missiles. However, it has been the RPG-29 that is stolen the show. These man-portable lightweight weapons are powerful enough to destroy the Merkava tank, which is reputed to be the most thoroughly armored tank in the world.

...For $500 per launcher and $250 per missile round, a militant group can purchase a light, mobile weapon that is easy to conceal and that can reliably destroy a main battle tank that costs millions of dollars.

The long-term implications for Israel are even more significant. If Palestinian militants are ever able to acquire significant quantities of RPG-29s they could for the first time ever present a significant challenge to the Israeli army. This is particularly true because the Israelis have demonstrated an aversion to ground fighting and taking casualties in the campaign against Hezbollah. There is no doubt that groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, both of which have close ties to Hezbollah, have been observing the conflict in South Lebanon with strong interest and have noted Israel's reluctance to send more ground troops in against Hezbollah fighters who are armed primarily with RPG-29s.

In fact, given the proximity of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to major Israeli population centers (the distances could easily be traveled on foot by armed militants, who would have to keep themselves dispersed enough to avoid being destroyed by aircraft or armored vehicles) it is possible to imagine that sometime in the future that a Palestinian militia armed with such man-portable weapons could possibly successfully invade and conquer Israel without the use of expensive military equipment such as aircraft and tanks. If militants could penetrate Israeli territory enough to turn the battle into hand-to-hand fighting within major population centers, F-16s and nuclear weapons would be of no use to Israel. The previously unthinkable defeat of Israel could become a possibility...

http://searchingforthetruth.typepad.com/searching_for_the_truth/2006/08/rpg29_the_great.html

Just allowing Iraqi insurgents access these weapons en masse could change the course of that war:

AP: Iran Stockpiling High-Tech Small Arms
Fri. 25 Mar 2005
Associated Press

By GEORGE JAHN

VIENNA, Austria - Iran is quietly building a stockpile of thousands of high-tech small arms and other military equipment - from armor-piercing snipers' rifles to night-vision goggles - through legal weapons deals and a U.N. anti-drug program, according to an internal U.N. document, arms dealers and Western diplomats.

The buying spree is raising Bush administration fears the arms could end up with militants in Iraq....

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=1742

Obviously the status quo is highly unstable. Any thoughts what's next?

 

[MikeyDB]

Earth as one

Unless alternate approaches are made to resolving issues in Palestine and Iraq and Afghanistan and everywhere else the American corporate machinery has deployed forces, an historical over-review would indicate that even greater violence and war is but moments away.

While it’s comfortable to prosecute a war from thirty-five thousand feet and “Don’t those FAE’s make wonderful blossoms on the horizon…” the U.S. once again demonstrates that it has failed to learn anything from Vietnam or anywhere else where technology alone was relied on to bring closure to some “necessary” militarism.

You can kill as many as you like however the seeds of hatred sown at the destruction of lives by the millions can only ever serve to keep the war machine humming.

Israel (whether responsible in some Machiavellian role for Sept./11/01, or any other event that’s cited by the war-mongering machinery we see represented here at Canadian Content) has received the tacit and actual approval for continuing hostilities in the name of fighting “terrorism”.

Effectively carte blanche delivered by the Shock and Awe of an aerial attack perpetrated by a few to ensure that this machinery gets updated and better at killing as many as possible in as short a time as possible.

It will be a race to the end of course, the militarization of every society pushing us toward extinction or the continuing abuse of the planet to feed our appetites, in the end its all the same.