What if? Geopolitical crisis 2010.

[Freethinker]

A what if scenario.

What if in 2010 Iran launched a nuke at Israel. Israels missile defence shoots it down. No lives are lost. But wrekage clearly shows it is a nuclear warhead.

What would happen next?

 

[missile]

Iran would be blasted into smithereens by the Israeli nukes within minutes.

 

[Gonzo]

This is what would happen, Israel's missile defense wont shoot it down because missile defense doesn't work. Never has any missile been fired down. It was a big lie when Bush the first said they shot them down in the first gulf war. The footage was of scud missiles breaking up.
The sad thing is that this so called missile defense Bush the second is trying to build up is a waste of money that could go into health care for Americans, and it is seen by Korea and Russia as an offensive weapon, which continues an arms race.

 

[#juan]

You're right Gonzo

The much vaunted Patriot anti-missile missile never hit anything. It is fortunate that the SKUD missiles were only guaranteed to hit one thing, and that was the ground. The one succesful hit by a skud was because there was a building on the piece of ground where the missile landed.

 

[tamarin]

If a nuclear warhead is launched anywhere by anybody the world will change immediately. Given how divided the global community is, it will happen. When the smoke clears we'll see how resilient our vaunted democratic institutions are.

 

[humanbeing]

RE: What if? Geopolitical

so called missile defense Bush the second is trying to build up is a waste of money

I agree that it is a waste of money that could go towards something, anything better.

To Bush and the American geopolitical strategy though, it is not so useless (as you probably know). Isn't it primarily about the militarization of space and even more first strike capabilities with lasers, tungsten rods, and more nukes 'n shit? Something that could help ensure total US hegemony? The more I read on it, the more nuts it sounds.

Anyways, back to the question...

What if in 2010 Iran launched a nuke at Israel. Israels missile defence shoots it down. No lives are lost. But wrekage clearly shows it is a nuclear warhead.

I believe Iran is going for nukes partly because that is what it takes to not be blown to pieces by the US when they got their sights set on you. They aren't dumb, they know that the US is planning to get them sometime in the next little while. Ah well, just one more entity to add to the unstable mix of nuclear warhead possessors...

One of the reasons that the US hasn't already taken out North Korea is that they have to deal with the artillery that could devastate South Korean cities like Seoul in response to any hostile aggression. I am sure that if the US finds a way to eliminate that artillery threat, they will choose the option of blasting that country back to the stone age over diplomacy.

What this does though, is it sets a bad precedent... what it says is that you need to have something dangerous and destructive to deter the US or its allies from annihilating you, if you have something they want. This plays a major role in other countries' arms developments and military expansions, including Iran's I am sure.

Anyhow, back to the answer...

My take on the what if question:

Iran launched the nuke, and shortly afterwards, was obliterated by US nukes located all around the world in subs and in space satellites (assuming they finish by 2010). Large portions of the world are obliterated shortly afterwards. That the US or it's allies were probably doing something aggressive to initiate the disaster, or even nuking to begin with, matters little as the remnants of the human race will be too concerned with trying to stay alive and recollect themselves to give a damn.

Anyhow, it's sooo scary when you think about it. Our lives can just end with the push of a button by any nutbar state that has nukes (which means, every state with nukes).

 

[tamarin]

As long as Canada isn't giving foreign aid to countries that have nukes we might actually be making a small contribution to the world's betterment. Last time I looked we were still giving handouts to Pakistan, India and China. And these twits have the billions necessary to maintain nuke programs. We need some head help here.

 

[Freethinker]

Ok fine, missile defence doesn't work never will(though I don't patriot failure is proof the concept is unworkable). The point is in event of the launch but fail scenario. No nuclear explosion. It takes time to retrieve the remains of said missile and determine payload. There is a window of opportunity that might not result in the ME becoming a glass desert.

Launch/failure. One day later Israel determine it was a nuke. Immediate lauch by Israel?? Any window for diplomatic intervention?

 

[#juan]

I think Israel would probably report their findings to the U.S., and eventually to the UN and there would be a very quick conventional bombing of just about everything in Iran. Any resistance from other Arab countries like Syria, would be met with the nuclear threat. That is the best scenario. The worst would be an Israeli preemptive nuclear strike on Iran and possibly Syria. There is a chance that this would bring China and Russia into the fight, which would likely mean WW3

 

[humanbeing]

RE: What if? Geopolitical

Launch/failure. One day later Israel determine it was a nuke. Immediate lauch by Israel?? Any window for diplomatic intervention?

I don't know for sure. I doubt there is a window for diplomacy. Probably any launch of this sort against US allies by Iran or any of those "rogue states" will result in an immediate counterattack by the US and Israel. I'd be curious, in this hypothetical what if situation, to know why Iran did it in the first place. That said, I'm not looking for possible answers, especially from you, freethinker!

It seems more likely though, that it will be the US or perhaps a close ally using nukes (first) in the future. I cannot read the future though, I am just going by how sketchy the entire US policy is, and has always been, on nuclear weapons (their justification for pre-emptive, or even preventive war; maintaining the option of first-strikes; stated aims in their geopolitical strategy; pressing forward with the militarization of space; et cetera, et cetera)...

 

[Finder]

I think any nation in the world using a nuke, including the USA would automatically be seen by the world as an aggressisor and a Nation like Iran would be faced on many fronts by new foes. I think if the USA were to use them they would have a lot of bad blow back. Isreal would end itself if it used nukes, because that would be enough to change Eygpts, Saudi Arbia's and a few other Arab nations which deal with Isrealis policy towards isreal

 

[iARTthere4iam]

People would quickly see Iran is the madhouse that it is. Much bombing would ensue till everything stopped moving.