After more than a decade of prickly Liberal relations with Washington, U.S. academics and analysts believe the Bush administration is feeling optimistic about the possibility of a Canadian Conservative government.
Brian Russell, who teaches international political economics at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., said that the U.S. government's reaction to a Stephen Harper-led government would certainly be favourable.
"A Harper government would be more closely ideologically aligned with this administration," he said. "I am, however, not convinced that simply changing governments to one that is more ideologically inline is going to solve everything."
Ties with Washington have arguably deteriorated, especially during the past few years of Liberal rule in Ottawa. Although Prime Minister Paul Martin vowed to improve relations with the United States when he took office two years ago, that has not happened. For example, Canada and the United States are still embattled in an ongoing softwood lumber dispute. And several of Mr. Martin's Liberal cabinet ministers have been outspoken in their criticism of the U.S. President.
During the current election campaign, the Liberal Party has been trying to paint Mr. Harper as a scary extremist with close ties to the Americans. One Liberal TV ad quoted a Dec. 2 column in the conservative Washington Times as saying: "Canada may elect the most pro-American leader in the Western world. . . . A Harper victory will put a smile on [U.S. President] George W. Bush's face." The column describes Mr. Harper as "pro-free trade, pro-Iraq war, anti-Kyoto, and socially conservative."
Mr. Harper responded on Dec. 11 with a letter to the editor, saying that although he "certainly considers [himself] to be a friend of the United States," the column "greatly oversimplifies" his positions. He defended Canada in the softwood lumber dispute, denied that he would have sent troops to Iraq, and said he would not initiate or support any effort to pass legislation restricting abortion in Canada.
The author of the column, Patrick Basham, told the CBC during an interview that Mr. Harper and his advisers have clearly decided to present the him and the Canadian Conservative party in as moderate a light as possible in order to win votes in Ontario.
"That said, the Republicans, and particularly the Bush White House, will be very pleased if Stephen Harper wins. He will get the benefit of the doubt," Mr. Basham said. "George Bush will be looking to help him out, whereupon in recent years it has been difficult from an American perspective to be seen as helping out a Canadian government, which has increasingly been viewed as one that thumbs its nose at the U.S."
He also added that if Stephen Harper is elected and makes inroads on the softwood lumber dispute, it will be on the strength of the Canadian argument as opposed to on ideological empathy.
Mr. Russell said that he hopes that one of Mr. Harper's immediate priorities would be to repair relations between the two countries. "Among the things I would expect he would want to do is visit Washington in the not-too-distant future to try to begin building a relationship with the Bush administration or to try and put it on a more solid footing."
Mr. Russell insists that years of bickering can be forgotten just because the two governments are more ideologically inline. Canada and the U.S. need to forge a new understanding in order to repair their relationship, he said.
In addition, he believes that in order for Mr. Harper to be able to govern in Canada, he would need to move to the centre of the Canadian social and political spectrum, which would place him well to the left of current Republican administration.
Still, Canada's looming election has gotten more coverage than usual south of the border, where at least some are expecting to see change. Major newspapers like the Washington Post and USA Today, as well Fox News, have followed the race. As well, popular comedy shows The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and The Colbert Report have poked fun at the Canadian race. The New York Times recently noted that Mr. Harper ends every stump speech with "God bless Canada."
Roger Noriega, the former assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere under the current Bush administration, said there is a great deal of "disappointment" with the Liberal campaign, and specifically the attempt to portray Mr. Harper as a lapdog of the U.S.
"That is regarded as irresponsible in that not many people expect Stephen Harper to do anything other than represent the interests of Canada," he said. "If anything, Stephen Harper's attitude might get him better attention on some issues, such as softwood lumber."
If Paul Martin were to win the election, the anti-American tone of his campaign would certainly further cloud relations his interactions with Washington, Mr. Noriega said.
Analyst David Biette said that Republicans understand that Canadian Conservatives are a different breed.
"You line them up on the political spectrum and they're not in the same place," said Mr. Biette, who runs the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
"They're not going to be a toady for America, that's for sure. But at least there's more willingness to talk. It's not going to be 'No' and just shut the door like it was before."
As well, expectations in the Bush administration have been moderated by the possibility of another minority government.
"They're savvy enough to know that if it's a minority, Harper's hands are tied," said a former U.S. diplomat. "They've dealt with coalition governments all over the world."
"But if Bush and Harper strike a great relationship, that can matter. That makes it easier to solve trade agreements and do new things."
With files from Canadian Press.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060120.welbush0120/BNStory/specialDecision2006/
Brian Russell, who teaches international political economics at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., said that the U.S. government's reaction to a Stephen Harper-led government would certainly be favourable.
"A Harper government would be more closely ideologically aligned with this administration," he said. "I am, however, not convinced that simply changing governments to one that is more ideologically inline is going to solve everything."
Ties with Washington have arguably deteriorated, especially during the past few years of Liberal rule in Ottawa. Although Prime Minister Paul Martin vowed to improve relations with the United States when he took office two years ago, that has not happened. For example, Canada and the United States are still embattled in an ongoing softwood lumber dispute. And several of Mr. Martin's Liberal cabinet ministers have been outspoken in their criticism of the U.S. President.
During the current election campaign, the Liberal Party has been trying to paint Mr. Harper as a scary extremist with close ties to the Americans. One Liberal TV ad quoted a Dec. 2 column in the conservative Washington Times as saying: "Canada may elect the most pro-American leader in the Western world. . . . A Harper victory will put a smile on [U.S. President] George W. Bush's face." The column describes Mr. Harper as "pro-free trade, pro-Iraq war, anti-Kyoto, and socially conservative."
Mr. Harper responded on Dec. 11 with a letter to the editor, saying that although he "certainly considers [himself] to be a friend of the United States," the column "greatly oversimplifies" his positions. He defended Canada in the softwood lumber dispute, denied that he would have sent troops to Iraq, and said he would not initiate or support any effort to pass legislation restricting abortion in Canada.
The author of the column, Patrick Basham, told the CBC during an interview that Mr. Harper and his advisers have clearly decided to present the him and the Canadian Conservative party in as moderate a light as possible in order to win votes in Ontario.
"That said, the Republicans, and particularly the Bush White House, will be very pleased if Stephen Harper wins. He will get the benefit of the doubt," Mr. Basham said. "George Bush will be looking to help him out, whereupon in recent years it has been difficult from an American perspective to be seen as helping out a Canadian government, which has increasingly been viewed as one that thumbs its nose at the U.S."
He also added that if Stephen Harper is elected and makes inroads on the softwood lumber dispute, it will be on the strength of the Canadian argument as opposed to on ideological empathy.
Mr. Russell said that he hopes that one of Mr. Harper's immediate priorities would be to repair relations between the two countries. "Among the things I would expect he would want to do is visit Washington in the not-too-distant future to try to begin building a relationship with the Bush administration or to try and put it on a more solid footing."
Mr. Russell insists that years of bickering can be forgotten just because the two governments are more ideologically inline. Canada and the U.S. need to forge a new understanding in order to repair their relationship, he said.
In addition, he believes that in order for Mr. Harper to be able to govern in Canada, he would need to move to the centre of the Canadian social and political spectrum, which would place him well to the left of current Republican administration.
Still, Canada's looming election has gotten more coverage than usual south of the border, where at least some are expecting to see change. Major newspapers like the Washington Post and USA Today, as well Fox News, have followed the race. As well, popular comedy shows The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and The Colbert Report have poked fun at the Canadian race. The New York Times recently noted that Mr. Harper ends every stump speech with "God bless Canada."
Roger Noriega, the former assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere under the current Bush administration, said there is a great deal of "disappointment" with the Liberal campaign, and specifically the attempt to portray Mr. Harper as a lapdog of the U.S.
"That is regarded as irresponsible in that not many people expect Stephen Harper to do anything other than represent the interests of Canada," he said. "If anything, Stephen Harper's attitude might get him better attention on some issues, such as softwood lumber."
If Paul Martin were to win the election, the anti-American tone of his campaign would certainly further cloud relations his interactions with Washington, Mr. Noriega said.
Analyst David Biette said that Republicans understand that Canadian Conservatives are a different breed.
"You line them up on the political spectrum and they're not in the same place," said Mr. Biette, who runs the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
"They're not going to be a toady for America, that's for sure. But at least there's more willingness to talk. It's not going to be 'No' and just shut the door like it was before."
As well, expectations in the Bush administration have been moderated by the possibility of another minority government.
"They're savvy enough to know that if it's a minority, Harper's hands are tied," said a former U.S. diplomat. "They've dealt with coalition governments all over the world."
"But if Bush and Harper strike a great relationship, that can matter. That makes it easier to solve trade agreements and do new things."
With files from Canadian Press.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060120.welbush0120/BNStory/specialDecision2006/
