When Carney announced his intentions for the consumer carbon tax on Jan. 31, even the Carney campaign appeared confused about what it was doing.
The headline on the press release didn’t say Carney was killing the consumer carbon tax, as so obediently reported by most media on Friday.
What it said was: “Mark Carney presents plan for change on consumer carbon tax” while the text said, a “Mark Carney-led government will immediately remove the consumer carbon tax and instead, create a system of incentives to reward Canadians for making greener choices …”
As a so-called "economist" how is it that he doesn't understand industry pricing? Of COURSE the increase in industrial carbon taxes will result in higher prices for consumers. How does he plan on preventing industry to pass down the higher cost? How is he going to prevent said industries from leaving the country if he somehow (??) "enforces" industries not to pass down the increase costs? How dumb is this man?
Last year, Prime Minister Mark Carney reduced the consumer portion of the carbon tax to zero. That decision may have left many Canadians with the impression that carbon pricing had disappeared entirely.
It has not.
The industrial carbon price remains in place, and another increase is scheduled for April 1, when the price will rise from $95 per tonne to $110 per tonne.
At a time when global energy markets are once again facing geopolitical uncertainty, this increase risks amplifying the pressures already building within Canada’s food supply chain. With tensions rising in the Middle East and the possibility of disruptions to oil flows, higher fuel costs appear increasingly likely unless the current conflict de-escalates quickly. Anyone familiar with the region understands that predicting stability there is rarely straightforward.
We have seen how quickly energy shocks can ripple through food systems before.
At the start of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Canada’s carbon price stood at $40 per tonne. For a truck hauling food between Toronto and Montreal once a week, the additional carbon-tax burden amounted to roughly $2,000 per year.
On April 1, 2026, the carbon price will reach $110 per tonne — more than double what it was when the Ukraine war began. For that same weekly Toronto–Montreal route, the additional carbon-tax cost alone rises to roughly $6,000 per year compared with 2018. That is more than three times the burden carriers faced when the Ukraine war began.
And that calculation excludes the obvious: higher fuel prices themselves, which inevitably accompany geopolitical shocks such as Ukraine in 2022 or the latest tensions involving Iran.
The cumulative effect becomes clearer when looking at the national logistics system. Canada likely sees 800 to 1,200 long-haul food truck trips each day, many covering distances of roughly 1,000 kilometres. At a carbon price of $110 per tonne, the diesel tax component alone represents approximately $34 million to $52 million per year in additional costs across those shipments.
Ottawa cannot control global energy markets, but it can decide whether domestic policy adds pressure to the cost of feeding Canadians.
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And this estimate is extremely conservative.
It excludes the additional costs associated with clean fuel regulations, refrigeration units, empty backhauls, secondary distribution routes, and warehousing operations. When those factors are included, the financial impact across the food supply chain could easily be three or four times higher.
Geography also matters. In a country as large as Canada, regions located far from major population centres — such as the Prairies or Atlantic Canada — bear a disproportionate share of transportation costs. Distance alone makes food logistics expensive; layering additional policy costs on top of that reality compounds the challenge.
It is also worth remembering that carbon costs accumulate across the entire supply chain. By the time food reaches a distribution centre, its price already reflects higher input costs at earlier stages—from farming to processing to transportation. And margins do vary in food distribution. Each additional cost is applied to an already higher base price.
Crude oil prices are behaving like the tide these days — moving up and down with unsettling force. Just this past week, prices jumped from roughly $78 on March 10 to above $95 by March 13. For the food industry, this kind of volatility is far more troubling than a steady rise in energy costs...
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Ultimately, consumers pay the difference at the grocery store.