Shi Davidi
August 3, 2016, 11:16 PM
HOUSTON – Before everyone gets carried away with the comments John Gibbons made about Aaron Sanchez’s future role – wait, it’s too late? – consider for a moment what he actually said.
“Truthfully, we’re still debating what’s going to happen,” the Toronto Blue Jays manager told writers in his office Wednesday, and when asked what part of the plan they were still debating, he replied: “The total plan. Nothing is locked in stone yet.”
So he’s not definitely going to the bullpen?
“I have no info for you right at this moment.”
When a writer joked about being confused, Gibbons quipped, "Well you should. I am, too."
Now, if your interpretation of that is that the Blue Jays are embarking on a radical rethink of their plan to transition Sanchez to the bullpen, well, you’re looking for what you want to see there.
The fact is, that’s not happening. General manager Ross Atkins was pretty clear about that Monday after the acquisition of Francisco Liriano – who joined the Blue Jays on Wednesday – and president and CEO Mark Shapiro was unequivocal Tuesday when speaking with Bob McCown on Sportsnet 590 the FAN. "At some point he’s not going to start anymore this year," said Shapiro. "He will not run 230 innings and pitch through October. That’s not going to happen. That can’t happen. No one in their right mind, including him, would suggest that can happen."
So aside from wishful thinking from the let-him-start set, nothing has changed. Nothing.
To reiterate, nothing.
The guess here is that Sanchez starts Saturday in the Kansas City Royals – Liriano gets the ball in Friday’s series opener – and after that the process of transitioning him to the bullpen begins. Perhaps there’s some room for a bit of back and forth on this between the 24-year-old and the club, but the likelihood is that the Blue Jays will play the role of responsible parents making the sensible choice for their dedicated and determined child.
As much as the science isn’t definitive, Sanchez would have 10 starts remaining after Saturday. Through his first 21 outings, he’s averaged 6.2 innings per outing, which has taken him to a career-high of 139.1, six more than his previous best established in 2014.
Even if he averaged just five innings per outing from here on out, he’d finish the regular season just under 200. There could be up to six more starts in the post-season, should the Blue Jays go deep into October, and an innings spike in the area of 100 is without doubt risky.
The Blue Jays won’t let him chance it – even if Sanchez is in the midst of a Cy-Young-Award-calibre season, and surely torn about the drama all around him.
Lost to some degree in the recent conversation is that there’s a reasonable baseball debate in all of this – might Sanchez help the Blue Jays more locking down games with closer Roberto Osuna than making his final 11 starts? To some degree that depends on how Liriano performs, but that’s a worthwhile argument and both sides have strong points to be made.
Still, that’s not at the crux of the Blue Jays’ decision making.
Concerns over his workload increase is driving the bus here, even if, as mentioned, the science is far from foolproof, and it’s impossible to isolate all the different variables from pitcher to pitcher to discern a definitive pattern.
Noah Syndergaard is an interesting comparable given that the Blue Jays drafted them in the same year and they have some similarities in frame and build. The New York Mets ace went from 133 innings in 2014 to 198.2 last year, including the post-season, but last month left a start early with what the team described as arm fatigue, regaining form since.
Still, Syndergaard had 456.1 minor-league innings beneath him before making the jump. Sanchez had 366, and really, the heart of the matter lies there, since the Blue Jays babied him early in his career and then truncated his buildup in 2014 by calling him up mid-season as a reliever. He’s been playing catch-up since, and everyone is paying for that right now.
Another intriguing example is Carlos Martinez of the St. Louis Cardinals, although he’s significantly shorter and more slight than Sanchez. Martinez logged 103.2 innings in 2014 at age 22, predominantly as a reliever, and then transitioned into the 2015 rotation to throw 179.2 frames. This season as a 24-year-old he’s at 126.1 innings over 20 starts.
The let-Sanchez-start crowd can point to that, or to Felix Hernandez, who threw 69 innings at age 17, pushed it to 149.1 at 18, 172.1 at 19 and then reeled off 10 straight years of at least 190.1 innings. Or Clayton Kershaw, who threw 37 innings as an 18 year old, jumped to 122 at 19, then 169 at 20 and 171 at 21 before running off six straight years of at least 200.
On the flip side, both Matt Harvey and Patrick Corbin were 24 – the same age as Sanchez – when they had Tommy John surgery.
Harvey logged 67.2, 75, 96 innings in three seasons of college baseball, then went 135.2 innings in 2011, 169.1 in ‘12 and then 178.1 in ’13 before his elbow gave. Corbin threw 46.1 innings at age 19, went to 144.2 at 20, up to 160.1 in 2011, 186.1 in 2012 and 208.1 in 2013 before his elbow blew out the following spring.
Which camp would Sanchez fall into if he was extended for the rest of the season?
It’s impossible to know, although last Sunday, his last time speaking publicly about the matter, he noted that: "The biggest thing is I feel strong, I feel like I haven’t even broken a sweat in terms of that aspect. I don’t feel fatigued, I haven’t felt fatigued all year. Just keep it rolling."
That’s not simply lip service.
But what would another 50 innings do to him? How about 70? Or 100? Out of the bullpen, he’d likely log 20-30 more innings in the regular season, but will that really ease the wear and tear? Is an inning of 97-98 every other day less taxing than one start at 94-95 every five or six days?
The Blue Jays, clearly, believe it is, or they wouldn’t be taking this path. And every time a young pitcher leaves the game with an arm injury – the way Lance McCullers of the Houston Astros did before their eyes Tuesday night – they’re reminded of what’s at skate with Sanchez.
"The Sanchez deal, you’re always thinking about that kind of stuff, especially when you do see it," said Gibbons. "Still, there’s no science on it, necessarily. But that always gets your attention, and they don’t fall from trees, man."
No pitchers like him don’t, which is why the hand-wringing here is warranted. Sanchez, long a big piece of the team’s future, surpassed expectations this year to become an integral part of their present, which is why this is such an emotional conversation. This is not a decision the Blue Jays are making lightly, but once Sanchez is transitioned to the bullpen, they’d be wise to more fully state their case.
Blue Jays remain committed to plan for Sanchez - Sportsnet.ca
So that, as they say, is that.
Another win by the Jays tonight - had company so no reporting.
August 3, 2016, 11:16 PM
HOUSTON – Before everyone gets carried away with the comments John Gibbons made about Aaron Sanchez’s future role – wait, it’s too late? – consider for a moment what he actually said.
“Truthfully, we’re still debating what’s going to happen,” the Toronto Blue Jays manager told writers in his office Wednesday, and when asked what part of the plan they were still debating, he replied: “The total plan. Nothing is locked in stone yet.”
So he’s not definitely going to the bullpen?
“I have no info for you right at this moment.”
When a writer joked about being confused, Gibbons quipped, "Well you should. I am, too."
Now, if your interpretation of that is that the Blue Jays are embarking on a radical rethink of their plan to transition Sanchez to the bullpen, well, you’re looking for what you want to see there.
The fact is, that’s not happening. General manager Ross Atkins was pretty clear about that Monday after the acquisition of Francisco Liriano – who joined the Blue Jays on Wednesday – and president and CEO Mark Shapiro was unequivocal Tuesday when speaking with Bob McCown on Sportsnet 590 the FAN. "At some point he’s not going to start anymore this year," said Shapiro. "He will not run 230 innings and pitch through October. That’s not going to happen. That can’t happen. No one in their right mind, including him, would suggest that can happen."
So aside from wishful thinking from the let-him-start set, nothing has changed. Nothing.
To reiterate, nothing.
The guess here is that Sanchez starts Saturday in the Kansas City Royals – Liriano gets the ball in Friday’s series opener – and after that the process of transitioning him to the bullpen begins. Perhaps there’s some room for a bit of back and forth on this between the 24-year-old and the club, but the likelihood is that the Blue Jays will play the role of responsible parents making the sensible choice for their dedicated and determined child.
As much as the science isn’t definitive, Sanchez would have 10 starts remaining after Saturday. Through his first 21 outings, he’s averaged 6.2 innings per outing, which has taken him to a career-high of 139.1, six more than his previous best established in 2014.
Even if he averaged just five innings per outing from here on out, he’d finish the regular season just under 200. There could be up to six more starts in the post-season, should the Blue Jays go deep into October, and an innings spike in the area of 100 is without doubt risky.
The Blue Jays won’t let him chance it – even if Sanchez is in the midst of a Cy-Young-Award-calibre season, and surely torn about the drama all around him.
Lost to some degree in the recent conversation is that there’s a reasonable baseball debate in all of this – might Sanchez help the Blue Jays more locking down games with closer Roberto Osuna than making his final 11 starts? To some degree that depends on how Liriano performs, but that’s a worthwhile argument and both sides have strong points to be made.
Still, that’s not at the crux of the Blue Jays’ decision making.
Concerns over his workload increase is driving the bus here, even if, as mentioned, the science is far from foolproof, and it’s impossible to isolate all the different variables from pitcher to pitcher to discern a definitive pattern.
Noah Syndergaard is an interesting comparable given that the Blue Jays drafted them in the same year and they have some similarities in frame and build. The New York Mets ace went from 133 innings in 2014 to 198.2 last year, including the post-season, but last month left a start early with what the team described as arm fatigue, regaining form since.
Still, Syndergaard had 456.1 minor-league innings beneath him before making the jump. Sanchez had 366, and really, the heart of the matter lies there, since the Blue Jays babied him early in his career and then truncated his buildup in 2014 by calling him up mid-season as a reliever. He’s been playing catch-up since, and everyone is paying for that right now.
Another intriguing example is Carlos Martinez of the St. Louis Cardinals, although he’s significantly shorter and more slight than Sanchez. Martinez logged 103.2 innings in 2014 at age 22, predominantly as a reliever, and then transitioned into the 2015 rotation to throw 179.2 frames. This season as a 24-year-old he’s at 126.1 innings over 20 starts.
The let-Sanchez-start crowd can point to that, or to Felix Hernandez, who threw 69 innings at age 17, pushed it to 149.1 at 18, 172.1 at 19 and then reeled off 10 straight years of at least 190.1 innings. Or Clayton Kershaw, who threw 37 innings as an 18 year old, jumped to 122 at 19, then 169 at 20 and 171 at 21 before running off six straight years of at least 200.
On the flip side, both Matt Harvey and Patrick Corbin were 24 – the same age as Sanchez – when they had Tommy John surgery.
Harvey logged 67.2, 75, 96 innings in three seasons of college baseball, then went 135.2 innings in 2011, 169.1 in ‘12 and then 178.1 in ’13 before his elbow gave. Corbin threw 46.1 innings at age 19, went to 144.2 at 20, up to 160.1 in 2011, 186.1 in 2012 and 208.1 in 2013 before his elbow blew out the following spring.
Which camp would Sanchez fall into if he was extended for the rest of the season?
It’s impossible to know, although last Sunday, his last time speaking publicly about the matter, he noted that: "The biggest thing is I feel strong, I feel like I haven’t even broken a sweat in terms of that aspect. I don’t feel fatigued, I haven’t felt fatigued all year. Just keep it rolling."
That’s not simply lip service.
But what would another 50 innings do to him? How about 70? Or 100? Out of the bullpen, he’d likely log 20-30 more innings in the regular season, but will that really ease the wear and tear? Is an inning of 97-98 every other day less taxing than one start at 94-95 every five or six days?
The Blue Jays, clearly, believe it is, or they wouldn’t be taking this path. And every time a young pitcher leaves the game with an arm injury – the way Lance McCullers of the Houston Astros did before their eyes Tuesday night – they’re reminded of what’s at skate with Sanchez.
"The Sanchez deal, you’re always thinking about that kind of stuff, especially when you do see it," said Gibbons. "Still, there’s no science on it, necessarily. But that always gets your attention, and they don’t fall from trees, man."
No pitchers like him don’t, which is why the hand-wringing here is warranted. Sanchez, long a big piece of the team’s future, surpassed expectations this year to become an integral part of their present, which is why this is such an emotional conversation. This is not a decision the Blue Jays are making lightly, but once Sanchez is transitioned to the bullpen, they’d be wise to more fully state their case.
Blue Jays remain committed to plan for Sanchez - Sportsnet.ca
So that, as they say, is that.
Another win by the Jays tonight - had company so no reporting.
