What ever happened to Nick Griffin? Didn't he go into exile, somewhere? Farming in Rhodesia?
Theresa May and the Tories should have nothing to fear from Labour’s three IRA stooge
- Thread starter Blackleaf
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What ever happened to Nick Griffin? Didn't he go into exile, somewhere? Farming in Rhodesia?
I wouldn't call it implode, more like strategic voting.
Most UKIPers will vote Tory this time to get the Brexit process done. May has basically promised to take the UK
really out of the EU, not some half assed Norway style of deal. UKIPers approve of this path.
If May screws it up, or even better loses the election, UKIP will be back even stronger.
Yup....nationalism has always worked.
Ask anyone who hides under there bed at night.
May will win with a huge majority.
How can Brexit get cancelled? The people have voted for it and therefore it will go ahead. Britain is a democracy.
And, besides, Theresa May has already triggered Article 50 which, according to Justice Secretary Liz Truss, is "irrevocable", meaning there is now no prospect of Britain staying in the European Union.
The SNP should have no part in forming part of a UK government as 90-odd% of the UK electorate aren't able to vote for them.
Coffee House General Election 2017
Ignore all the bluster. The Tories will still win
James Kirkup
James Kirkup
1 June 2017
The Telegraph
This is the first general election since 1997 where I have not primarily been employed as a journalist, covering the story of the campaign and its participants. Of course, I’ve still been writing about it, but from a certain distance. I miss some of the peculiar entertainments of the political circus, and some of the freaks and wild animals that provide those entertainments. But by and large, it’s rather nice to be watching things from a little way off.
Especially because that distance allows me to say things like this: a lot of journalists, and a lot of politicians (especially Conservative ones), have gone stark raving mad and are talking gibberish about this election.
I know why, of course. Campaigns create madness. The days are longer and the pressure greater. This is a Big Story. One of the biggest. Yet there is no story. Campaigns are boring. Sinfully dull. Yet if nature abhors a vacuum, journalism absolutely fricking loathes one, and simply cannot permit one to exist. News is a beast that must be fed, and its hunger never ends. ‘Not much that matters happened today’ is not a story, and ‘Nothing has changed’ is not a headline. Especially in the midst of a Big Story. Feed the beast. Feed the beast.
That ceaseless, remorseless hunger does funny things to people. Simply, it drives them a bit loopy. Hence journalists and politicians who in their hearts and in their guts know what the election result will be are spending time and energy talking about the things that won’t happen.
To be clear, here’s what will happen, and what the vast majority of journalists and politicians expect to happen. The Conservatives will win. Theresa May will be returned as PM with a Commons majority of between 50 and 100. Labour will lose, but lose well enough for Jeremy Corbyn to stay on as Labour leader, thus condemning that party to yet another internal conflict that might, just, lead to a formal split.
UK General Election 2017 - latest polling averages
03 Jun 2017
Con: 43.2%
Lab: 37.8%
LD: 7.9%
UKIP: 3.6%
Think that scenario over carefully. Theresa May will be a Conservative PM who won more than 40 per cent of the vote, secured a solid Commons majority and who faces a Leader of the Opposition who is derided by many voters and whose authority is questioned by most of his own MPs.
By no reasonable interpretation can that outcome be described as bad for Mrs May or the Conservative Party. It is a scenario that was beyond the wildest dreams of her predecessor. David Cameron missed a Commons majority in 2010 and, in 2015 expected to lose to Ed Miliband, but scraped home with a majority of 12. Mrs May will next week beat that comfortably, and exceed Mrs Thatcher’s 1979 majority of 43.
And yet some of my old chums in the world of hackery are telling a story of how that would be something close to disaster for Mrs May. She mismanaged expectations, it is said, allowing Tories to dream of a three-figure majority. She has destroyed her personal brand with voters, it is claimed, with a U-turn on social care (which polls suggest more voters liked than lamented). She has lost her authority over her party: having been a god-like queen-empress to Tories, she is now a busted flush and will return as John Major in dress. Horlicks, all of it. Hot, steaming Horlicks.
In the closing days of the Tory leadership contest last year, I was still a hack and doing what hacks do: gossiping with politicians. Doing my rounds of regular contacts in various bits of the party, I was struck by the utter lack of enthusiasm for Mrs May. Several MPs told me she was dull, wooden, uninspiring. ‘The safe, boring choice, but no-one’s ever going to get excited about her’, said one.
When Mrs May, by accident and default, duly became leader, I then saw several of my contacts telling a rather different story, both publicly and privately. The author of that ‘safe, boring’ quote now serves in Mrs May’s government and has been a very excited advocate for her.
Cynical? Practical? Call it what you like. The brutal fact of politics is that victory is all that really matters. Politicians, and Tory politicians especially, are a pragmatic bunch when it comes to power and authority. When Mrs May leads the party to a solid victory next week, she’ll have both. I expect to see some of those who are now briefing anonymously (we hacks can generally recognise you, even when you don’t use your names, chaps) about the failings of the Tory campaign and the May team to heap public praise on their leader.
As for my former journalistic colleagues telling the story of Tory crisis and Labour surge, well, they’re just doing what they have to: there must be a story, a surprise, some tension. Off-record Tory jitters fit that bill, and it’s right that they should be reported, along with the fact that some of this ‘story’ is a CCHQ confection to galvanise voters. But these facts should be put in context. Mrs May, whatever her flaws, is on course to win; Britain has not fallen in love with Mr Corbyn, who has at best gone from being an utterly awful candidate to being a really, really bad one.
Perhaps for a few hacks there’s an element of vengeance here too. The May team have made few friends on the way up, so when it looks like they’re stumbling, why not give them an extra kick? But on the whole, they’re just doing their job. Feed the beast, feed the beast.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/ignore-bluster-tories-will-still-win/
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Norway has a half in half out deal where they take Schengen and free movement, and pay to the EU budget,
in exchange for single market access, with ECJ and ECHR jurisdiction. Switzerland as well.
They may not be "members', but they have to deal with all the bs of being members. Labour would go for a deal like that.
And nothing says they could not rejoin again in a few years, so just triggering Article 50 isn't much to celebrate, and it all
can be reversed.
The SNP should not....
Yeah well the BQ should not have been a party in the Canadian Parliament, and should not have been
"Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition", but they were....
What 'should' and what 'is'.... yeah, ok, you're a young kid or something ?
There are other polls that show it a much closer race..
Survation survey gives the Conservatives 40 per cent of the vote, and Mr Corbyn's Labour 39 per cent.In total, five new polls feature in today's Sunday papers - though none of the others suggest the race is as close as Survation's results.
YouGov found a four point Tory lead, 42 per cent to 38 per cent, but ICM think it is an 11 point race - 45 per cent to 34 per cent.
ORB estimate the Conservative advantage to be nine points, 45 per cent to 36 per cent, while ComRes found the biggest lead of 12 - 47 per cent to 35 per cent.
Labour probably would go for such a deal but we don't have to worry about that because they won't be in power again until the 2030s at the earliest.
Brexit will not be reversed. In all likelihood the EU will have collapsed by 2025.
The SNP should not form part of a UK government as the vast majority of the 46 million eligible voters - those outside Scotland - cannot vote for them.
The British people have decided not to trust the polls since the debacle in the 2015 General Election where most polls showed we were on course for a Hung Parliament and we spent weeks debating whether there will be a Cameron-led Tory/Ukip/DUP coalition government or, nightmare of nightmares, a Miliband-led Labour/Green/SNP coalition government (at the time we had a Tory/Liberal Democrat coalition government since the 2010 election ended in a Hung Parliament). In the end, flying in the face of pollsters' predictions, the Tories won the election, their first outright election victory since 1992.
So I would ignore all the polls. Theresa May will win with a huge landslide in what is effectively a second EU in/out referendum.
I also remember the EU referendum when, for weeks, polls consistently showed a lead for Remain and much of the cocky MSM were confidently predicting a Remain win and were telling us in no uncertain terms that Remain will win: Leave won quite comfortably.
This from the Daily Mirror's Labour-supporting Kevin Maguire:
LIES, DAMNED LIES AND OPINION POLLS
Opinion polls were recording big leads for the Conservatives just a week ago - and were promptly denounced as a Tory voodoo plot by assorted left-wingers.
Then the gap narrowed. The revisionist position is now to embrace the polls that tell them what they want to hear as scientific - and ignore the ones that don't.
This peaked earlier this week with a YouGov survey which put the Tory lead down to a slender 3% hailed as the dog's b*llocks. Meanwhile an ICM poll for The Guardian giving the Tories a 12% lead didn't exist.
YouGov readily admits its methodology translating votes to seats is controversial.
It’s also highly elastic when the firm puts the Cons on as low as 285 to as high as 353 and Labour ranging from 219 to 285.
So it’s a hung Parliament or a Tory majority of around 60! When it's based on 75 respondents per constituency, I fear its offering false hope for Labour supporters.
In 2015 - in a 650 seat Parliament - the Cons finished on 331 seats on 36.% of the votes cast and Labour 232 on 30.4%.
The Tories were ahead by 99 seats. Yes, 99. Labour would need to win 50 seats and take back Copeland to be the biggest party. That ain’t going to happen.
While the polls are undoubtedly closing, the Cons maintain healthy leads in most of them. For YouGov to be right, all the others would need to be wrong.
May’s 24% leads are history. Tory talk of matching Thatcher or Blair’s landslides is over but Ukip purple Tories are going home.
Many polls failed to chart Brexit, Trump and David Cameron’s majority two years ago.
So there’ll continue to be those predicting a Labour Government by next weekend. But count me out.
Who will win the 2017 general election? It's time for a rude reality check - Kevin Maguire - Mirror Online