Pollsters Failed in Brexit

Highball

Council Member
Jan 28, 2010
1,170
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Wait until the US Presidential elections and lets see just how accurate there are here in the states.
 

Corduroy

Senate Member
Feb 9, 2011
6,670
2
36
Vancouver, BC
The polls weren't wrong. There was a huge percentage of undecideds throughout the campaign. Some voted stay and more voted leave. The difference between the Leave and Remain final vote is smaller than the number of undecideds before the vote.

It was the analysts who were wrong. They saw that decided voters were favouring remain and assumed that undecideds had a tendency towards the status quo or would break like the average. They were wrong. Undecideds aren't just empty vessels that'll follow the pattern. They have reasons for being undecided.
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,817
471
83
The polls were quite accurate actually.

It was usually 51-49 in favour of one or the other.
 

HarperCons

Council Member
Oct 18, 2015
1,865
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Blackleaf

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 9, 2004
49,956
1,910
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This is the second time in just over a year that we've been asking the question: "Why did the pollsters get it so wrong?" They got their prediction of the result of the 2015 General Election so wrong. They predicted there would be a Hung Parliament, like at the the 2010 General Election, and the formation of another Coalition Government (we had a Tory/Liberal Democrat coalition between 2010 and 2015). People were saying we may get a Tory/Ukip coalition or (something too horrific to even contemplate) a Labour/SNP/Green coalition. Instead, the Tories ended up winning outright, their first outright win in a General Election since 1992.