Polls

[#juan]

“Although the Liberals lead by 9 points, the NDP have made incremental gains since the debate. The latest CPAC-SES tracking has the Liberals at 38% followed by the Conservatives at 29%, the NDP at 16%, the BQ at 12% and the Green Party at 4%. The percentage of Canadians who are unsure who would make the best Prime Minister has noticeably increased since the debate. On December 15th, 17% of Canadians were unsure who would make the best Prime Minister. Three days later unsure is up to 24% or one of four Canadians.” - Nik Nanos, President, SES Research.



Polling December 16 to December 18, 2005 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,200 Canadians, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com.



All values in parenthesis are changes from our November 13th national survey.



Canada Decided Voters

LIB – 38% (+4)

CP – 29% (+1)

NDP – 16% (-4)

BQ – 12% (-2)

GP – 4 (NC)

*19% of Canadians were undecided (+5)



In Quebec

BQ – 49% (-5)

LIB – 32% (+8)

CP – 10% (+1)

NDP – 7% (-1)

GP – 2% (-2)

*18% of Quebecers were undecided (+6)



Outside Quebec

LIB – 40% (+3)
CP – 36% (+1)
NDP - 19% (-6)

GP – 5% (+1)

*19% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (+4)



Best PM

Martin – 27% (-2)

Unsure – 24% (+11)

Harper – 20% (-2)

Layton – 11% (-5)

None – 10% (-1)

Duceppe - 6% (-1)

Harris – 2% (-2)



Leadership Index [Daily composite of the Leaders’ Trust, Competence and Vision]*

Martin – 67 (-8)

Harper – 62 (+10)

Layton – 34 (-7)

Duceppe – 22 (-5)

Harris – 7 (NC)

* Change for this measure is from yesterday’s composite score.



On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily longitudinal tracking chart, regional breakdowns and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. Watch PrimeTime Politics at 8 pm EST (Monday to Friday) to get a detailed briefing of the numbers.

For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the sponsor (CPAC) in accordance with the Elections Act. Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking.

Feel free to forward this e-mail.

Cheers,

 

[no1important]

SES-CPAC DEC 19,2005 From Here

Libs-37%
Cons-29%
NDP-16%
Bloc-13%
Green-5%

Things have held pretty steady since election was called. I wonder if they will really change much after the New Year? Will Liberals go up as they traditionally seem to, the closer we get to the election?

 

[Finder]

Re: RE: Polls

I'm fine with a mixed system that gives both local and proportional representation. The end result is the same...that the number of seats a party holds equals the percentage of the popular vote it receives. That will give all Canadians...not just those who blindly the support the Liberals or the Conservatives...a voice.

The NDP were hurt a lot in the close ridings by fear of Harper last time around. I think that will play a smaller role this time. The NDP accomplished a lot, Layton looked good in the debates, Harper is acting less like a loon (at least so far), and there's the whole sponsorship thing.

The last I checked (about a week ago) there were 58 seats that could possibly go NDP. Of those, we have a realistic chance of winning about 40 of them. Of course we won't win all 40, but it's not unreasonable to think that we can win 30 seats. We'll almost certainly increase what we have.

My biggest fear right now is that the NDP will run out of money in such a long campaign.

Might be one of the reason's there holding back a little. I know some NDPers are having problems in the Northern ridings because of the new electoral laws really hurt them.

Yeah I hope we get a mixed system at least. But the results in BC and even worse in PEI are disapppointing to those who believe in reform. www.fairvote.ca

 

[Reverend Blair]

BC was a joke though. Their STV system was barely promoted at all, and when it was promoted, seemed complicated (it isn't really), yet it almost passed. I didn't follow PEI as closely, but I got the impression that was pretty much a silent campaign too.

The people in power don't want to get rid of FPTP because it gioves them so much power, so they pay little more than lip service to PR.

 

[no1important]

SES/CPAC Dec 20,2005 From Here

Libs-37%
Cons-31%
NDP-14%
Bloc-13%
Green-6%

Seat projection Dec 20,2005 From Here

Libs- 120
Cons-102
Bloc-63
NDP-23
Green-0
Other-0

British Columbia polls Dec 20 Strategic Counsel From Here

Libs-38%
Cons-32%
NDP-26%
Green-4%

 

[no1important]

From here

SES Dec 23, 2005 National

Liberals- 38%
Cons-31%
NDP-15%
Bloc-12%
Green-3%


Ontario only from here

Dec 23, 2005 SES

Libs-46%
Cons-37%
NDP-14%
Green-4%

Atlantic Canada Polls From Here

Dec 23, 2005 SES

Libs-46%
Cons-33%
NDP-19%
Greens-3%

Manitoba/Sask Dec 22,2005 Ipso Reidfrom here

Libs-44%
Cons-34%
NDP=19%
Greens-3%

British Columbia Polls from here

Strategic -Dec 22,2005

Libs-35%
NDP-34%
Cons-26%
Greens-5%

BC Polling Dec 22,2005 Ipso Reid (from same link)

Libs-40%
Cons-30%
NDP-25%
Greens-5%

Lower Mainland (Vancouver) Strategic Dec 22,2005

Libs-41%
NDP-28%
Con 24%
Green-7%

It seems overall greens have fallen a bit, maybe due to their leader?

 

[Reverend Blair]

The stories are beginning to get out about Harris. It's okay though...he'll pick up a couple of points on the next Conservative gaffe.

 

[Roy]

Harper gains in Canadian poll

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (Reuters) - Canadians are warming to Conservative leader Stephen Harper but his party still trails Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals, according to a tracking poll released on Wednesday.

The Liberals have the support of 38 percent of decided voters, compared with the Conservatives at 31 percent. The New Democratic Party has 15 percent support, with 5 percent for the Green Party, according to the SES/CPAC survey.

The Bloc Quebecois, which runs candidates only in Quebec, has the support of 51 percent of decided voters in that province, which is calculated at 12 percent support on a national basis, according to the survey.

Nationally, 18 percent of voters remain undecided about which party they will support in the January 23 election, including 21 percent in Quebec.

The survey found 25 percent felt Harper would be the best prime minister, his highest rating since the election campaign began and only 3 percentage points behind Martin.

The poll surveyed 1,200 people Dec 21-23, and has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

The campaign slowly returned to life on Wednesday after a Christmas holiday break, with Harper campaigning in British Columbia and Martin in Montreal.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051228/wl_canada_nm/canada_politics_poll_col

 

[yballa09]

SES CPAC
29/12/2005

Liberal 35
CPC 34
NDP 14
Bloc 13
Green 5

SES-CPAC - Tie follows RCMP announcement of investigation
30/12/2005

The announcement of a RCMP criminal investigation of a possible tax leak from Finance Minister Ralph Goodale's office has initially had an impact on the political environment. CPAC-SES tracking has the Liberals and the Conservatives statistically tied for the first time in the campaign.


Nationally, the Liberals have 35%, the Conservatives 34%, the NDP 14%, the BQ 13% and the Green Party 5%. Overnight, the CPAC-SES one day measure on trust and vision for Canada has realized a noticeable drop for Paul Martin. Outside of Quebec, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 5 points.” - Nik Nanos, President, SES Research

Two things to be noted, the field dates are December 23, 28 and 29 because of the holidays and also the change indentified below is now from the first day of completed tracking.

Polling December 23, 28 and 29, 2005 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,200 Canadians, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com.

All values in parenthesis are changes from our first day of tracking on December 1, 2005.

Canada Decided Voters
LIB 35% (-2)
CP 34% (+5)
NDP 14% (-1)
BQ 13% (-1)
GP 5 (NC)
*16% of Canadians were undecided (NC)

In Quebec
BQ 53% (+3)
LIB 31% (+1)
CP 7% (-2)
NDP 6% (NC)
GP 3% (-3)
*19% of Quebecers were undecided (+8)

Outside Quebec
CP 42% (+5)
LIB 37% (-2)
NDP 16% (-3)
GP 6% (+1)
*15% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (-2)

Best PM
Martin 27% (-2)
Harper 24% (+3)
Unsure 18% (+1)
Layton 12% (-2)
None 11% (-3)
Duceppe 7% (+1)
Harris 2% (NC)

Leadership Index [DailycompositeoftheLeaders’Trust,CompetenceandVision]*
Harper 65 (+5)
Martin 62 (-18)
Layton 40 (NC)
Duceppe 34 (+7)
Harris 8 (+3)
* Change for this measure is from the previous day’s score.

 

[yballa09]

Does anyone really think this poll will hold up, because I don't. Remember right after Gomery's first report came out the Cons had a slight advantage, only to be back down by 5-8 points just a few days later? It might be a little closer than that, but I can't see the Cons actually taking the lead after this RCMP investigation dies down.

 

[bluealberta]

Does anyone really think this poll will hold up, because I don't. Remember right after Gomery's first report came out the Cons had a slight advantage, only to be back down by 5-8 points just a few days later? It might be a little closer than that, but I can't see the Cons actually taking the lead after this RCMP investigation dies down.

Yes, I can see this continuing. The Libs are scandal tainted, and there really is no logical argument against Harpers policies. I also think that there are a lot of Liberal supporters who will simply not vote this time, rather than parking their votes with, say, the NDP. The "Harper is scarey" garbage is now being seen for what it is (trash), and the more moderate approach by Harper and the Conservatives is starting to resonate across the nation.

Go, Stephen, Go!!

 

[the caracal kid]

the more moderate approach of harper is only playing off those with short term memory and an inability to see past a phoney smile. Harper is playing the populace the way the pied piper played the rats. You do remember what happened to the rats, don't you?

 

[bluealberta]

Re: RE: Polls

the more moderate approach of harper is only playing off those with short term memory and an inability to see past a phoney smile. Harper is playing the populace the way the pied piper played the rats. You do remember what happened to the rats, don't you?

...yes, they all turned into Liberal supporters.

The trouble with short term memory, is that it includes all the failings of the liberals. That, my friend, is what people are starting to understand, which is that a Martin let party is simply no different than a Chretien let party. Both are corrupt, both have scandal after scandal, and both think the Canadian voter is too stupid to realize that they are being played for fools. This time, things will change.

 

[Jersay]

Things will change alright. I still have hope for the NDP and I hope it gets over 20% support, but from the two choices for Prime Minister;

Harper and Martin, you can have then both.

 

[the caracal kid]

what? being used by a centrist party being replaced by being used by a right-wing financially irresponsible, militiaristic, homophobic party?

So what you really want is for everybody to vote BLOC, or where no bloc candidate is available, vote NDP!

The other option is of course to rescind your vote (but it would take a big movement to make a big enough impact to wake up the big two to the displeasure of the populace). It is a big mistake to be lured by a new corrupt, greedy entity out of distaste for the current corrupt greedy entity.

 

[bluealberta]

Things will change alright. I still have hope for the NDP and I hope it gets over 20% support, but from the two choices for Prime Minister;

Harper and Martin, you can have then both.

;thanks, but I think I will just keep Harper, okay?

 

[Jersay]

Fine you can keep Harper, I will continue to support Layton and Martin can go to the Bahamas, where his ships like to be.

 

[the caracal kid]

ahh, do you really want him?

i was hoping we could export him to the US. Then he can fulfill his fantasy!

 

[Jersay]

But we are already exporting Martin to the Bahamas.

 

[the caracal kid]

Then we better get the shipping containers ready!

or perhaps just send them back to the house, and bar the windows and doors and tell them to enjoy the prison life?