I love polls.
Here's the latest from Environics.
Lib Cons NDP Bloc Green
Environics
15/04/2005
27 33 24 11 2
Here's the latest from Environics.
Lib Cons NDP Bloc Green
Environics
15/04/2005
27 33 24 11 2
Polls
- Thread starter Reverend Blair
- Start date
The Greens have dropped off the map in most of the polls, Jay. They've lost the left, for the most part.
The best analysis of how this poll translates; and it's only a single poll and an election hasn't been called, so don't anybody get too excited; is this from Wilfred Day at Babble:
What this poll really points to, if further polls back it up, is far more Liberal voters considering the NDP than any other party. If it holds, it will signify a major breakthrough for the NDP. That's not the usual swing vote.
The best analysis of how this poll translates; and it's only a single poll and an election hasn't been called, so don't anybody get too excited; is this from Wilfred Day at Babble:
What this poll really points to, if further polls back it up, is far more Liberal voters considering the NDP than any other party. If it holds, it will signify a major breakthrough for the NDP. That's not the usual swing vote.
The Greens are picking up votes from the moderate and right of the Liberal Party though, passpatoo...at least that's the consensus of many on the left. The Greens have a very corporate lean right now, which has caused a lot of their support to go to the NDP. That support has been replenished from enivironmentalists on the right. That's a much softer demographic for them.
More than that though...I was referring mostly to the Environics poll (crappy wording on my part, sorry) that shows them at 2. Ipsos- Reid had them at 7 on April 12.
Again though, that's soft support. Something that happens with non-traditional parties is that people who don't really want to answer polls shout out "Green" in an attempt to monkey-wrench things. In a close race, they are also more susceptible to strategic voting...people who would vote for the Greens but are too terrified of the Conservatives.
More than that though...I was referring mostly to the Environics poll (crappy wording on my part, sorry) that shows them at 2. Ipsos- Reid had them at 7 on April 12.
Again though, that's soft support. Something that happens with non-traditional parties is that people who don't really want to answer polls shout out "Green" in an attempt to monkey-wrench things. In a close race, they are also more susceptible to strategic voting...people who would vote for the Greens but are too terrified of the Conservatives.
The green has some support out here. No suprise there. They do a lot better provincially though.
I live in Surrey Newton North Delta riding and Gurmant Grewal only beat liberal by 200 votes and the NDP candiadate was just behind him, this was tradionally an NDP area (provincially as well) before Reform/Alliance and I honestly see it going back to NDP. I also think Conservatives will lose seats in BC to NDP. The libs may lose a seat or two here but will still be strong. They will get a lot more than 3 seats in BC.
BC is always funny, Liberals always look low but when it comes time to vote, Anderson and the rest always manage to get back in, even if its just by a hair. Dosanjh, Chan, Owen will get back in even Hedy Fry will win. Hell North Van always went Neo-con but went Liberal last time.
But the Conservatives and NDP did split the vote in recent elections which could be argued helped Liberals. A lot of Lower Mainland and Island ridings are usually a pretty tight 3 way race anyways. So the vote could be swayed to any party easily.
Like I have said before the Gomery is blown over here and a non issue for a majority out here. I think people would vote NDP instead of Conservaqtive here if they really wanted to punish federal Liberals, as most people realize Martin was not the big player in the sponsorship scandal it was Chretien.
I live in Surrey Newton North Delta riding and Gurmant Grewal only beat liberal by 200 votes and the NDP candiadate was just behind him, this was tradionally an NDP area (provincially as well) before Reform/Alliance and I honestly see it going back to NDP. I also think Conservatives will lose seats in BC to NDP. The libs may lose a seat or two here but will still be strong. They will get a lot more than 3 seats in BC.
BC is always funny, Liberals always look low but when it comes time to vote, Anderson and the rest always manage to get back in, even if its just by a hair. Dosanjh, Chan, Owen will get back in even Hedy Fry will win. Hell North Van always went Neo-con but went Liberal last time.
But the Conservatives and NDP did split the vote in recent elections which could be argued helped Liberals. A lot of Lower Mainland and Island ridings are usually a pretty tight 3 way race anyways. So the vote could be swayed to any party easily.
Like I have said before the Gomery is blown over here and a non issue for a majority out here. I think people would vote NDP instead of Conservaqtive here if they really wanted to punish federal Liberals, as most people realize Martin was not the big player in the sponsorship scandal it was Chretien.
I wish they had a "You All Suck" option on these ballets. I wonder what the percentage would be then.
Re: RE: Polls
I agree with all that you say here Rev. although I don't know where all this talk about the Greens and corporate support are comming from. I guess I'll have to take some more time going over thier platform again.
One thing the polls have been pretty consistent in is Canadians don't think an election should be called until after Gomery. I understand that the wording with each of the polls have been a little different but I think that this point is nevertheless clear. And despite this, tonight the National reported both Harper and Martin doing some pre-election campaigning. I don't think anyone, including these guys, are expecting anything other than another minority government should we go to the polls. While I rather like this minority thing, I think that its the closest that we're going to get to democracy in the current system, I still don't see much if any benefit to whichever party forms the next government. There's still going to be lots of give and take has we have seen with this one, and if Harper and his lads do take this gov. down, I can really forsee them being punished for it.
Reverend Blair said:
I agree with all that you say here Rev. although I don't know where all this talk about the Greens and corporate support are comming from. I guess I'll have to take some more time going over thier platform again.
One thing the polls have been pretty consistent in is Canadians don't think an election should be called until after Gomery. I understand that the wording with each of the polls have been a little different but I think that this point is nevertheless clear. And despite this, tonight the National reported both Harper and Martin doing some pre-election campaigning. I don't think anyone, including these guys, are expecting anything other than another minority government should we go to the polls. While I rather like this minority thing, I think that its the closest that we're going to get to democracy in the current system, I still don't see much if any benefit to whichever party forms the next government. There's still going to be lots of give and take has we have seen with this one, and if Harper and his lads do take this gov. down, I can really forsee them being punished for it.
The leader of the Greens is an ex-PC. He's taken things to the right, which has alienated some people from the left. It's drawn in people from the right though.
Oh yeah. I haven't seen things this ugly for a while. If you were to get Martin and Harper away from their handlers right now, it would take less than ten minutes to goad them into naked coleslaw cage match wrestling. There is real animosity between them...unusual at that level of politics.
If we get a majority either way, I'd be amazed. I'm still betting on the Liberals to pull out another minority right now...they have the better machine by far and they haven't started spinning for real yet. So far they've been toying, and they've done okay. When the pressure is on they'll go hard. They really want to do that after the testimony at Gomery ends, not before. Unless they're pressed, of course.
If we get a Conservative majority while Harper is in charge, start sending out feelers to New Zealand and Sweden, cause this place will get as ugly as Jesusland. If we get a Liberal majority with Martin or any of his boys in charge, it will only be as ugly as Nixon's Amerika.
Christ, what a range of options. No matter what, I'm preparing the effigies and fueling my zippo. :wink:
They have Daryl Bricker CEO and President of Ipso reid on the radio,and he says 9% of people believe politicians.
While 20% believe in the Loch Ness Monster and another 20% believe we are visited regulariley by "aliens".
70% disapprove of Genetically Modified food.
33% approve of same sex marriage, about 33% totally disapprove of it and about another third favour civil unions.
That most people would prefer a Republic over a Monarchy(but no one is in a rush to do anything about it, and they are viewed as celebrities) and that many people like and respect Queen Elizabeth but most want William King and not Charles, when she dies.
He also mentioned there are more educated people today than ever before.......................................
I know this may be a little off topic but I thought some of the numbers were interesting.
While 20% believe in the Loch Ness Monster and another 20% believe we are visited regulariley by "aliens".
70% disapprove of Genetically Modified food.
33% approve of same sex marriage, about 33% totally disapprove of it and about another third favour civil unions.
That most people would prefer a Republic over a Monarchy(but no one is in a rush to do anything about it, and they are viewed as celebrities) and that many people like and respect Queen Elizabeth but most want William King and not Charles, when she dies.
He also mentioned there are more educated people today than ever before.......................................
I know this may be a little off topic but I thought some of the numbers were interesting.
It's always interesting when they interview the people who do the polls, No1. The things that the press doesn't talk about show up...like the trending to the left in Canada on social issues and policies.
I'm kind of scared by those Loch Ness and alien numbers though.
I'm kind of scared by those Loch Ness and alien numbers though.
Another fun thing to do with polls is when they call you, tell them exactly the opposite of what you believe. :lol: :lol:
Conservatives 36% --- up 6
Liberals 26% --- stalled
NDP 15% --- down 4
Ipsos Reid
Conservatives are at 16% in Quebec.
Liberals 26% --- stalled
NDP 15% --- down 4
Ipsos Reid
Conservatives are at 16% in Quebec.
That's an old poll, Dukee...April 15.
Wait until next week when we know what the fall-out of tonight is.
Wait until next week when we know what the fall-out of tonight is.