Paul Martin may lose his own seat.

[Breakthrough2006]

Bloc Quebecois up 5 points in post-debate poll
CTV.ca News Staff

Following the first round of leaders' debates, a new poll shows the Bloc Quebecois pulling even further ahead in Quebec.

Sixty per cent of respondents say they would vote Bloc if the election were held now, up five points from the previous poll (the margin of error for the Quebec subset is +/- 5.1 percentage points).

The new poll was conducted between Dec. 17 and 19 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail. It comes on the heels of the two leaders' debates, which 41 per cent of Quebecers thought Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe won -- up two points from a poll released Sunday.

The poll shows Liberal support in Quebec has fallen since a pre-election benchmark poll in late November, when the main federalist party in Quebec had 30 per cent support (Liberals have been as high as 32 per cent).

In the most recent poll, only 20 per cent of Quebecers said they would vote Liberal, down three points from a poll taken between Dec. 15 and 18.

Although Liberal Party numbers are holding steady across much of Canada, the Quebec numbers must be worrisome for Prime Minister Paul Martin, who represents the riding of LaSalle-Emard in Montreal.

The poll found the parties would receive the following share of the vote in Quebec (percentage-point change from the pre-election benchmark poll in brackets):

Bloc Quebecois: 60 per cent (+6)
Liberals: 20 per cent (-10)
Conservatives: 8 per cent (unchanged)
NDP: 8 per cent (+1)
Green Party: 4 per cent (+2)
The poll shows 51 per cent of Quebecers feel the Bloc has the most momentum in the election. That figure was 42 per cent in the pre-election poll.

Timothy Woolstencroft, managing partner with The Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca the new results represent a divide between Quebecers and the Liberal Party that may not be bridged this election.

"I think they're getting down to a situation that only time can heal," said Woolstencroft. "Obviously a deep rupture has occurred between Quebec and the Liberal Party. Probably it's not going to be salvageable for this campaign unless the Bloc makes a mistake."

Woolstencroft said it might be time for a new Liberal strategy in Quebec. "They've been playing the federalist card, and it doesn't seem to be working," he said, referring to Martin's declarations this election is a referendum on sovereignty.

Traditionally, anglophone sections of Montreal have been Liberal strongholds and have accounted for most of the party's support in Quebec. According to The Strategic Counsel's data, however, the Bloc is almost twice as popular in Montreal as the Liberals.

"With the current numbers that they are polling in Quebec, the Liberals would be reduced to seven seats and this number would not include Mr. Martin's own seat," Woolstencroft said. "Right now, there's a risk that the PM might lose his own seat."

In the rest of Canada, the numbers have stayed relatively static since the election began.

The poll found Canadians outside of Quebec would vote as follows (change from pre-election benchmark poll in brackets):

Liberals: 37 per cent (unchanged)
Conservative: 37 per cent (unchanged)
NDP: 20 per cent (-1)
Green Party: 6 per cent (+1)
There has been some movement. The Liberals held a 39-35 advantage, but the Tories also led 38-36 in the Dec. 10-12 period.

In Ontario the numbers have also stayed relatively stable when compared to the pre-election benchmark.

Here are the Ontario numbers (change in percentage points from the pre-election poll):

Liberals: 41 per cent (+1)
Conservatives: 34 per cent (-1)
NDP: 19 per cent (-1)
Greens: 6 per cent (+1)
However, that timeframe masks a narrowing of the gap betwen the Liberals and Conservatives. In the Dec. 5-7 poll, the Liberals held a 47-29 lead over the Tories. The Conservatives have reduced that lead by 11 points, leaving a seven-point gap.

Ontario, with its 106 seats, is a vital battleground. On Tuesday, three party leaders were drumming up support there.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper was at a Toronto youth centre announcing his plans to tackle youth crime. Martin outlined a plan to help agriculture from a farm in southern Ontario. And NDP Leader Jack Layton campaigned in Toronto's Trinty-Spadina riding, where his wife Olivia Chow is on the ballot for the NDP. He called on voters to send non-Liberal MPs to Ottawa.

Here are the numbers from the Prairies (percentage-point change from the pre-election benchmark in brackets):

Conservatives: 49 per cent (-1)
Liberals: 24 per cent (-3)
NDP: 19 per cent (+1)
Greens: 9 per cent (+2)
Here are the numbers from B.C. (percentage-point change from the pre-election benchmark in brackets):

Liberals: 38 per cent (+3)
Conservatives: 32 per cent (+2)
NDP: 26 per cent (-3)
Greens: 4 per cent (-2)

 

[Paranoid Dot Calm]

That would be absolutely stunning if Martin lost his own seat.

Whatever the case, if he does not form a majority this time around, he is toast.

Sitting in the wings is the young Trudeau.

Calm

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Paul Martin may lose

I doubt that Martin will lose his seat. Party leaders tend to squeak through one way or another.

Martin may be okay when it comes to the Liberal leadership. If he increases the number of seats in the minority he will likely be in more danger than if he loses seats. If the Liberals are still on the down-swing, there won't be many people who want the position. An outright loss would do Martin in for sure, but it's doubtful that the Liberals will lose the election.

As for the young Trudeau...he is not being mentioned as a candidate for the Liberal leadership yet. There have also been a couple of completely unsubstatiated rumours that he may run for the NDP at some unspecified point in the future.

Those rumours are based on the causes he's supported and the political leanings he's expressed through that support. Trudeau himself is not saying a word about anything...he just smiles and says that he might consider politics at some point, but not yet.

 

[no1important]

RE: Paul Martin may lose

From Here


Quebec Polls


Pollara Dec19 ,2005

BQ-55%
Libs-27%
Cons-11%
NDP-7%

SES Dec 19,2005

BQ-51%
Libs-32%
Cons-9%
NDP-6%
Green-3%

Its funny Breakthough that Strategic is the only polling outfit that seems to give unfavourable numbers for the Libs on a consistant basis. They never seem to match any of the other polling companies.

Pollara and SES seem to give Liberals much higher and bloc lower numbers in Quebec. But I guess we will see come election night. I do not think Martin will lose own seat.

 

[Breakthrough2006]

No1.

I don't pay attention to polls until a couple of weeks before the actual election.

 

[FiveParadox]

I doubt the Prime Minister will lose his seat; party leaders, as mentioned above, normally "squeek" through. As for the polls, they are very general. It all depends on the sample that the researchers ask -- it could change day to day, even if nobody in Canada changed their mind for the duration of the campaign period.

 

[Finder]

I doubt he will lose his seat. If he does I'll be laughing all night election night and most likely in the morning too.

I think this election should be fun. But I hope this will be the last election using FPTP

 

[no1important]

I doubt he will lose his seat. If he does I'll be laughing all night election night and most likely in the morning too.

I think this election should be fun. But I hope this will be the last election using FPTP

I really doubt he will lose as well.

Unfortunatly I do not believe this will be last election using FPTP. I really wish it would be though.

 

[Breakthrough2006]

It wouldn't be the first time a leader lost his seat. They will just get some other poor sap to give up his/hers.

This issue could make things even worse for the Liberals in Quebec. To avoid embarrassment, they will focus in on Martins riding and pour a lot of resources and effort to maintain his seat. This will take away from the rest of Quebec. I think the Liberals will be lucky to eek out 10 seats out of Quebec. I saw a report yesterday that predicted the Liberals with only 7 seats in Quebec.

 

[Jay]

I doubt he will lose his seat. If he does I'll be laughing all night election night and most likely in the morning too.

I think this election should be fun.

I would certainly have a smile on my face for a few days too...

But I hope this will be the last election using FPTP

I'm not willing to give up the FPTP. I live in a riding, and it has a seat. We go to the polls to vote and the person in the riding with the most votes takes the seat.

Why would I want to change that?

 

[FiveParadox]

I agree, Jay, on the first-past-the-post system. I think that if Canadians involved theirselves in politics more than we do now (let's face it, folks, Canadians' involvement in our own political system is at a dismal low), then I think that the "FPTP" system could really shine. If people actually spoke to their Member on a regular basis about issues important to them, then the system would function far better.

 

[Finder]

Re: RE: Paul Martin may lose his own seat.

I agree, Jay, on the first-past-the-post system. I think that if Canadians involved theirselves in politics more than we do now (let's face it, folks, Canadians' involvement in our own political system is at a dismal low), then I think that the "FPTP" system could really shine. If people actually spoke to their Member on a regular basis about issues important to them, then the system would function far better.

I have to disagree with you there. FPTP is one of the reason's ppl don't vote.

Take for me for instance. My NDP canadate just won't win in my riding. he'll get maybe 10% of the vote. My vote will not count why should I vote. Give me one good reason?

I am still going to vote, and I'm going to waste my vote on my NDPer but I'm going to support electoral reform at the same time. Personally if I'm asked my opion on this issue I will go for a mixed system of FPTP and PR. Something like 200 FPTP and 100 PR and I think I would totally support this by region as well. So if the Bloq were to get 60% of the pop vote in Quebec they would get 60% of the quebec seats. If the NDP get 20% in Ontario they would get 20% of the Ontario Seats and if the PC's got 15% in BC they'd get 15% of the BC seats.

So on and so forth. The only instance I would like pure PR is with the Senate.

Paradox I hope when we have a ref on electoral reform you will chose for reform over keeping pure FPTP, as FPTP really isn't ment for our system.


Edit:
Jay, it's called democracy. Parties are not represented properly in this country. In provinces such as Quebec nearly 40% of the peoples vote's will be ignored because of FPTP. The Bloq will pick up most of the seats with a simple magority. This happens all across the country with different parties.

I'm going to leave the provinces for a moment since I don't want to get stuck on representation from teh provinces. But for instance if you look at the last election millions of voters are not represented in this parliment. The NDP got over 16% of the pop vote and only recieved about 5.5% of the seats. The Green attracted new voters and got about 5% of the vote and yet over half a million Green voters don't have one MP to reprent them. THATS half a MILLION VOTERS WITH NO VOICE AT ALL! This goes all across Canada on a provincial level too. Liberal voters in Alberta miles well not vote at all. Hell in the ontario 905 if your a ndp why leave your house on election day... you vote counts for nothing. If your a PC voter in Quebec, stay home your miles well not get outa bed, guess what your vote doesn't count because of FPTP. In PEI pretty much the same thing.

Guess what if your one of over half a million Green Party voters, just stay home on election night because Jay thinks your vote shouldn't count. You won't elect an MP because your votes are too evenly spread out. Thus you don't count.

I guess you vision of Canada is for the 50% of the people who's votes might count on election day.

So Jay please tell me why a NDPer should vote this jan who lives in the 905. Or why should any Green Party voter, vote this jan, or a Liberal living in the sticks of Alberta, or a Conservative living in a RED riding of Ontario which he has no chance of winning in. Why should these people vote in our system? They have absolutely nothing to gain from voting and they know they will be ignored!