October Surprise

[vista]

Ok. Three weeks to go. Both candidates are about even in the polls.

October surprises are a staple of electioneering. What will happen?

Will binLaden show up on the dinner table?

A terror alert mid-day on the election day - would this prompt west coast voters to rush to pick up their kids and get home without voting giving a benefit to Republicans?

Launch an attack on Iran - the next target - BEFORE the election? 'nothings better than a good war ya' know (better than Iraq at least)

Karl Rove is the master. Something will happen - no question. The neo-cons haven't come this far after stealing the last election to have the possibility of losing by 'legitimate means' - those Republican friendly electronic voting machines. Could that be it?

What ARE they planning?

 

[vista]

A Bush pre-election strike on Iran 'imminent': White House insider report "October Surprise" imminent

Wayne Madsen -- According to White House and Washington Beltway insiders, the Bush administration, worried that it could lose the presidential election to Senator John F. Kerry, has initiated plans to launch a military strike on Iran's top Islamic leadership, its nuclear reactor at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf, and key nuclear targets throughout the country, including the main underground research site at Natanz in central Iran and another in Isfahan.

The Iran attack plan was reportedly drawn up after internal polling indicated that if the Bush administration launched a so-called anti-terrorist attack on Iran some two weeks before the election, Bush would be assured of a landslide win against Kerry. Reports of a pre-emptive strike on Iran come amid concerns by a number of political observers that the Bush administration would concoct an "October Surprise" to influence the outcome of the presidential election.

http://www.lebanonwire.com/0410/04102002LW.asp

"There is no question it passed from the drawing board to the paper stage but with all the negative publicity generated, mostly by your publication of my comments, some are having second thoughts."

When looking at the geopolitical implications I would be surprised if they did do this. Too, the U.S. and Israel seem to be sofening up up on their rhetoric - for the timebeing.

I know Madsen's work. I am curious why this article (if legitamate) would not have been posted in an Amercian indy site first.

But something to think about...

There will be something hatched by Rove.

Karl Rove in a Corner

Karl Rove is at his most formidable when running close races, and his skills would be notable even if he used no extreme methods. But he does use them. His campaign history shows his willingness, when challenged, to employ savage tactics.If this year stays true to past form, the campaign will get nastier in the closing weeks, and without anyone's quite registering it, Rove will be right back in his element. He seems to understand—indeed, to count on—the media's unwillingness or inability, whether from squeamishness, laziness, or professional caution, ever to give a full estimate of him or his work.

It is ultimately not just Rove's skill but his character that allows him to perform on an entirely different plane. Along with remarkable strategic skills, he has both an understanding of the media's unstated self-limitations and a willingness to fight in territory where conscience forbids most others. Rove isn't bracing for a close race. He's depending on it.

 

[vista]

FWIW, the story is legit.

We will see what happens... just a few days left. Don't be surprised when it happens - whatever it is.

 

[zenfisher]

I think an attack on Iran would backfire. I think it would outrage most military families. In many cases, they are already stretched well beyond their service term contracts.

Bringing Bin Laden out now could backfire as well. We wouldn't need a "wartime president" Bush may find himself turfed right out.

An attack on the US however would ensure a Republican victory, unless of course it could be proven it was perpetrated by the Republicans.

 

[Reverend Blair]

Iran is the next logical target. Gary Schmitt of PNAC was on Face to Face this week and it was pretty damned clear that he wants to go in there...both guns blazing.

I think what they don't realise is that it won't be as easy as Iraq...Iran has a better army and they some very real weapons capabilities. The world community also won't stand for it. A few months ago Tony Blair said he wouldn't take part in an attack on Iran. Clearly, most (likely all) of Europe is against it.

I'm not convinced that such an attack would win the election for Bush. I am sure that it would make ther United States into an international pariah and possibly start a war between Russia, and the USA with most western countries either staying neutral or actively backing Russia.

 

[vista]

OK. One week to go. They are running very close in the race.

What we need now is a forum type "office pool".

5 bucks Canadian and you're in.

The Star the other day had an article on bin baby.

Betting on bagging Osama -- Journalists wager on exact day of bin Laden capture

Some reporters think he's already in U.S. custody Some reporters say U.S. troops already have bin Laden, but Bush is waiting for right time to play his ace in the hole.

My conjecture was formed last February, during an interview with a top Afghan security official in Kabul. The official told me the Americans could catch bin Laden at any time. To emphasis his point, he leaned over his big wooden desk, glanced at his wristwatch and said that if the Americans wanted, they could have their man in custody by 3:30 p.m. It was 3:15 when he spoke.

I asked him why the Americans didn't do just that, to which he replied: "That would mean they would have to leave."

Ok bin is out.

There have been a couple of obsure reports this year on the US moving radioactive material in the war zone as well as being stopped from forwarding these shipments into Iraq. Could the WMDs finally have been found?

No. Not with all the reports saying they weren't even there to begin with.

hmmm...

A terror attack on a nuclear facility? But what would the implications be to the industry when Bush said: ''I'm going to push nuclear energy..."

Perhaps a democrat-specific bio-weapon sprayed over Monday night-time Florida?

Whatever the surprise may be, if it is an 'event' versus compromised voting machines, my 5 bucks goes on Sunday as the day. Front page everywhere on Monday and this will give the democrats no time to cry foul.

"The [Bush]aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality - judiciously, as you will - we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.""

Ron Suskind, The New York Times

In a week from now, what will the new reality look like?

 

[vista]

Tonight BBC TV to Reveal New Florida Vote Scandal Republican "Caging List"

Greg Palast

A secret document obtained from inside Bush campaign headquarters in Florida suggests a plan - possibly in violation of US law - to disrupt voting in the state's African-American voting districts, a BBC Newsnight investigation reveals.

Two e-mails, prepared for the executive director of the Bush campaign in Florida and the campaign's national research director in Washington DC, contain a 15-page so-called "caging list".

It lists 1,886 names and addresses of voters in predominantly black and traditionally Democrat areas of Jacksonville, Florida.

An elections supervisor in Tallahassee, when shown the list, told Newsnight: "The only possible reason why they would keep such a thing is to challenge voters on election day."

Ion Sancho, a Democrat, noted that Florida law allows political party operatives inside polling stations to stop voters from obtaining a ballot.

They may then only vote "provisionally" after signing an affidavit attesting to their legal voting status.

Mass challenges have never occurred in Florida. Indeed, says Mr Sancho, not one challenge has been made to a voter "in the 16 years I've been supervisor of elections."

"Quite frankly, this process can be used to slow down the voting process and cause chaos on election day; and discourage voters from voting."

Sancho calls it "intimidation." And it may be illegal.

http://www.gregpalast.com/printerfriendly.cfm?artid=385

There has already been issues already raised in Florida.

 

[vista]

Is there a pattern here? Here's where I put my 5 bucks CANADIAN.

GOP Disrupts the Ohio Vote
You know what the Republicans are up to? The party of pre-emptive war is trying to pre-empt democracy.They couldn't find any weapons of mass destruction, now they're trying to manufacture weapons of mass disruption ... to disqualify likely Democrats from voting.

It's all over the news. In Ohio, the state Republican Party has challenged the eligibility of 35,000 newly registered voters. ... It's necessary they say, to prevent fraud in a state where polls show President Bush and John F. Kerry are in a statistical tie. Most of the 35,000 you'll not be surprised to hear, live in urban, which is to say, multi-racial, which is to say, Democratic, areas.

The Party's also announced that it's dredging up some dusty old law to send thousands of recruits to polling places Election Day to challenge the qualifications of Americans as they try to cast their votes.

http://www.alternet.org/election04/20283/

 

[Reverend Blair]

Why not? Keep the black people from voting and the Republicans win. Of course Bush has lost a fair bit of the Cuban vote there with his law to keep Cubans from sending money home, so maybe it will even out.

I really wouldn't be surprised to see a race riot in Florida this year, though. Can you imagine being some lily-white Republican challenging the right to vote of a bunch of people who you screwed last time, people that know damned well they screwed you, know that you know, and are standing here trying to do it again? Pile all the election tension, war tension, and racial tension onto that and it doesn't take much before there's a riot.

 

[Martin Le Acadien]

Re: RE: October Surprise

Why not? Keep the black people from voting and the Republicans win. Of course Bush has lost a fair bit of the Cuban vote there with his law to keep Cubans from sending money home, so maybe it will even out.

I really wouldn't be surprised to see a race riot in Florida this year, though. Can you imagine being some lily-white Republican challenging the right to vote of a bunch of people who you screwed last time, people that know damned well they screwed you, know that you know, and are standing here trying to do it again? Pile all the election tension, war tension, and racial tension onto that and it doesn't take much before there's a riot.

When did Bush stop Cubans from sending money? Castro wants to make it illegal to have American Money in Cuba again but that is only because NOBODY WANTS THE CUBAN PESOS! Wife's Aunt (Tante) is from Cuba, has family over there and travels back and forth several times a year! (Legal for relatives to travel, we'he been, its a journey to say the least!) Her family wanted the dollatrs to buy stuff in the hard currency stores which couldn't be found on the Cuban Store shelves! Hell, REV, its now legal for American Companies to sell Agriculturan and Medical Products to Cuba on a Cash and Carry business! Several ships a month leave New Orleans for Havana carryiyng permitted items!

Dirty tricks are nothing new, I just made sure that our votes ended up in the box and not the shedder before we left the absentee voting office down here! Bush will probably carry North Louisiana and come up short in South Louisiana (Acadien), not carry New Orleans but probably the Northshore, Baton Rouge and Jefferson Parish ( Merde Anglais aussie).

 

[Reverend Blair]

When did Bush stop Cubans from sending money?

Anne Maria Tremonte from CBC's The Current was in Miami this morning talking to Cubans. The day before that she was in Cuba. Every person in Miami who said they were voting Democrat cited Bush's law restricting the amount of money they could send. A couple of people in Cuba who depend on money from relatives said the same law was causing them undue hardship.

It's actually enforcement of an old law, but like I said, the Cubans affected by consider it to be Bush's law.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3181048.stm

The measures included restrictions on money transfers and family visits,

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/americas/05/14/cuba.us.march.ap/

 

[Rick van Opbergen]

I was thinking, but did not a majority of Cubans in the US vote for Bush in 2000?

 

[Reverend Blair]

The Cuban vote, expecially in Florida, has been going to the Republicans since Reagan first ran for president. Bush has lost as much as 20% of that vote, depending who you listen to, since his election in 2000. That's a dramatic shift in such a short period of time in a community not prone to shifting their loyalties.

 

[Rick van Opbergen]

Aha, thanks Rev.

 

[vista]

There it is Bush will be installed as the next President.

The question now is will this be for four years or as Hitler did, declare himself dictator for life?

http://www.newsgateway.ca/bush_dictator.htm

On March 23, Hitler combined threats of terror by his party with political promises to persuade the new Reichstag to approve a new law, the so-called Enabling Act. The law allowed the government to rule without constitutional forms and limitation for the next four years. This frightful surrender of the Reichstag to Hitler made him dictator of Germany, free from any real control by the parliament. This would be renewed in 1937, until Hitler declared it perpetual in 1943.

Well, that may be a bit presumptuous, but after a year in office 9/11 happened, the PATRIOT had already been written up and was passed in a fortnight...

Some recent news reports...

Greg Palast on Widespread Election Fraud

Greg Palast: Last night, the lead story worldwide, except the United States, was a report I did for BBC television, showing that once again, they’ve got the fix is in. In this case, it looks like they’ve got something called caging lists. By they, I mean Jeb Bush and his brother and their team, have put together caging lists – thousands and thousands of voters in Florida, which is still going to be the main battleground. Florida will decide the presidency. And what they intend to do, we’ve discovered, is challenge thousands and thousands of voters and their right to vote.

Florida ballot papers go missing

Tens of thousands of postal ballots have gone missing in the US state of Florida, sparking fresh concern over irregularities in the poll campaign. Authorities are investigating the apparent loss of 58,000 absentee forms in Broward County, north of Miami.

Republicans marshal “poll watchers”

The purpose of the Republican campaign is three-fold.

First is to directly block tens of thousands of registered voters from casting a ballot. The party has already submitted a list of 35,000 voters in Ohio whose registrations, it maintains, are invalid. The list consists of voters whose registration notices were sent in the mail, but returned to the state as undeliverable.

The second aim is to disrupt and delay the voting process and intimidate voters, so that many who arrive at the polls may decide, out of fear or frustration, to leave without casting a ballot.

A third aim of the Republican operation could be to generate such havoc, disarray, and even violence that the entire process will be thrown into doubt, and the results of the election will be uncertain in key districts or states.

 

[Martin Le Acadien]

When did Bush stop Cubans from sending money?

Anne Maria Tremonte from CBC's The Current was in Miami this morning talking to Cubans. The day before that she was in Cuba. Every person in Miami who said they were voting Democrat cited Bush's law restricting the amount of money they could send. A couple of people in Cuba who depend on money from relatives said the same law was causing them undue hardship.

It's actually enforcement of an old law, but like I said, the Cubans affected by consider it to be Bush's law.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3181048.stm

The measures included restrictions on money transfers and family visits,

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/americas/05/14/cuba.us.march.ap/

Sorry, Rev, you got a line of Bull***t on this one, I had to speak to the cuban side of the family to find out what is going on:

!. Money Transfers- The limit is and has been $100.00 a day you could send. The push is stop illegal money transfers which are those payments made by anti-Castro types trying to stir up problems on the island! Alpha-66 is such a group and they would travel to Cuba via Mexico or Canada and deliver thousands of dollars to their compatriots in Cuba! The US wants to stop this bs from going on as much as the Cuban Govt wants to also! These anti-Castro groups in South Florida have been a pain in the neck to local law enforcement and complicate the border situation on the seas between Florida and Cuba! The two governments work together in ways not mentioned and Bush's speech is for the public enjoyment of the Anti-Castro Exile vote, tightening of the ban on Family travel was lifted 2 days after it was announced! Funny, some things how never make the news!

October 2000: US House of Representatives approves the sale of food and medicines to Cuba.

November 2001: US exports food to Cuba for the first time in more than 40 years after a request from the Cuban Government to help it cope with the aftermath of Hurricane Michelle.

Rev, I usually take news with a grain of salt, all news has an agenda and angle! The travel ban on pleasure trips is being challenged in court based upon the US Constitution's right of free assembly and travel! Some citizens who traveled to Cuba were singled out for "special" treatment (Fines and imprisionment) but the lower Federal Courts have rulled the ban unconstitution except on official Travel on Government Business! The Govt usually ignores who travels and turns a blind eye to such stuff as to prevent creating a court challenge!

BTW-licences to travel to Cuba are easy to get from US Treasury Dept since bureaucrats culd care less! I know a couple who travel down there to study bird migration patterns :wink: and stay all winter long!

 

[Reverend Blair]

Hey, I only know what I hear on the news, but it matches what the White House said and the interviews were with Cubans both in the US and in Cuba. Tremonte was quite critical of Castro and Bush...in fact she was critical of policies on both sides going back to the revolution, BTW, so you should keep in mind that it was a pretty balanced report.

On the other hand, I would guess that your wife's relatives are part of the anti-Castro group, so there will undoubtedly be a bias there as well.

I also know some people who travel to Cuba. They give aid, often in the form of US funds, and they try to find out as much as possible about the well-being of jailed dissidents etc. One of them is heavily inolved in Reporters Without Borders. They are not fans of Fidel. They all say that the situation has become increasingly desperate since Bush came to power.

His policies are basically an attempt to force the Cuban people to revolt against the government by making things very bad for them. They aren't about to revolt though. They may be starving, but they understand that the embargo is making things worse for them.

 

[Andem]

Well, Rev. We all know that a revolt against the government will put Cuba into a similar state as most of the nations the United States has meddled with in the past 55 years. Chaos and grief would come over the Cuban people if such happened, and I'm quite sure the Bush regime doesn't really give a rats ass.

Just take a look at Iraq or Afghanistan as recent examples when you mess with current governments. There's still fighting in both countries and they aren't going to be happy anytime soon.

What does this spell out for the almighty United States? More debt, a bigger 'issue' with terrorist organisations, smaller ratio for public funding of required civilian services. Sorry if I'm being vague, but the economic system in the US will not improve if they force a situation on Cuba or any other country, for that matter.

 

[Just the Facts]

No Osama yet but a new videotape has just been released.

Haven't heard any details yet but he looks healthy enough.

I guess life in Iran is treating him well. :wink:

 

[Reverend Blair]

I haven't seen the tape, but CBC radio is reporting that he admits to being involved in 9-11 for the first time ever.