NDP Rising, Conservatives Declining

[JomZ]

Its more of a vote for change then a vote for the conservatives.

You feel it when you talk to soft supporters of the Liberal party and they just don’t feel strongly about the Liberals as they once did. My family and friends have been supporters of the Liberals in the past but not anymore.

Even if they do not know the Cons that well they may as well vote for them out of the sprit of shaking up the government.

 

[Finder]

Re: Tightening of the Race

I would predict that, as we approach the day of the Thirty-ninth General Election, we are going to see the support between the Liberal Government and the Conservative Opposition even out; I would think that many citizens of Canada are not yet ready to "hand over the reigns" to either party with a majority in the House of Commons.

:arrow: In Response to Another Post

I would agree — please let the issue of Svend Robinson rest. In all likelihood, Hedy Fry will continue to hold the riding; and notwithstanding that fact, in my opinion, it seemed as if the Honourable Jack Layton was reluctant to give Mr. Robinson another opportunity to enter into the NDP caucus.

If I where to guess out the outcome... because really I think this election has too many variables to effectly predick an out come by novices and experts a like. I think we will see a collasp in the Liberal party. I do not think we are going to see another 1993 with the PC party, but I do not see Martin having enough seats with the NDP and the Liberal party to govern. I think we will also see him step down as party leader. I think there is a possibility of a Conservative minority but I do not think they will get what they expect in Quebec and only a moderate number of gains in Ontario.

The NDP in my opinion stand a very good chance of being the balance of power in either a conservative or liberal minority. They could also be a chance that the Liberals, conservative and NDP join together with parliment split four ways to form a national unity government. I dout this will happen but it's a possibility.

I do not see us going back to the polls though as I think the next government and the three main parties do not believe Canadians want another election for a good couple of years.


Well I hope we won't be talking about this next year around this time anyhow!!!!!!!!

 

[FiveParadox]

Considering the "bottom line" drawn by the Honourable Jack Layton, I would actually not be too surprised to see a Conservative Government of Canada defeated for "violating" the apparent directives of the NDP.

Then again, my personal preference would be to have another minority. I don't mind going to the polls — it really isn't an inconvenience, in my opinion. It keeps things interesting, eh?

 

[I think not]

The polls are indeed all over the place, which means in my mind, anything can happen.

 

[bluealberta]

Having watched all the polls this and the last election, it has always struck me how CPAC is so different than all the other polls out there. Seems like this has not changed, with the latest CTV/Globe and Mail poll show the CPC 19 points ahead of the Fibs nationally, while CPAC only shows a 7 point lead. Odd that.

 

[bluealberta]

Re: RE: NDP Rising, Conservatives Declining

On CTV just now (and Globe and Mail0

Cons 42
Libs 24
Svends 17

Calbertly I'm not a Svend, and your endless grandiloquence against Svend and the NDP are tiresome and I take personal offence that you would group all NDPers into supporters of Scend. It's to the point where I'd expect you to call the NDP Svendism. Most people don't care about Svend, don't know who he is and or just won't vote for him in the one riding he is in. He's going to lose, so please for the love of sanity stop you crusade in trying to pin the NDP as Svends. For goodness gloery the guy stole a ring paid the price, gave up his seat and is now trying to get one back. He's done nothing wrong since.

f*ck.

Oh please get over yourself. Svend should be in jail, not trying to improve his pension. He stole a very expensive ring, not a dime store ring.

 

[Hank C]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...elxn_poll_060117/20060117?s_name=election2006

Conservatives take 18-point lead, poll shows

The Conservative Party has an 18-point lead over the Liberals in a new poll, giving them 42 per cent support nationally and setting possibly setting the stage for a major electoral shift.

The Tories have gained two points since a similar poll released Monday, while the Liberals fell three points.

"These numbers would deliver a majority government," pollster Tim Woolstencroft of The Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca on Tuesday.

"We've seen a transformation of the electoral landscape that's basically on par with 1993, 1984, 1968 and 1958," he said, referring to elections which generated big majorities.

However, Craig Oliver, CTV's chief political correspondent, said Tuesday night that other polls -- including, according to what he's been told, the party's internal polls -- show the Conservatives short of a majority.

According to his conversations with party officials, "they expect they could be in for a bit of a dip, as Canadians wake up in shock to find they've supported Harper so significantly," he said.

Here are the parties' diverging paths revealed by The Strategic Counsel's tracking poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail (change, in percentage points, from the Jan. 12, 14-15 poll in brackets):

Conservatives: 42 per cent (+2)
Liberals: 24 per cent (-3)
NDP: 17 per cent (+1)
Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent (+1)
Greens: 5 per cent (-1)
When one looks at numbers across Canada excluding Quebec, the Conservatives hold a 46-28 lead.

In Quebec, the Liberals appear to be heading towards collapse as the federalist vote consolidates with the Tories (change, in percentage points, from the Jan. 12, 14-15 poll in brackets):

Bloc Quebecois: 47 per cent (+2)
Conservatives: 31 per cent (+4)
Liberals: 12 per cent (-5)
NDP: 7 per cent (-1)
Greens: 3 per cent (unchanged)
The collapse is occurring both in Montreal, a traditional Liberal stronghold, and outside the province's largest city.

In Montreal, the Liberals sit at just 17 per cent -- a six-point drop from the poll released Monday. The Conservatives are up to 23 per cent, but the Bloc has 52 per cent support.

Outside Montreal, the Liberals are down to seven per cent (they captured 25 per cent of the vote in the 2004 vote). The Conservatives are up to 38 per cent, about four times their vote share in 2004. That puts them within five points of the Bloc.

On the question of momentum, 76 per cent of Quebec respondents said the Tories had the most, while only 12 per cent picked the Bloc. Only three per cent picked the Liberals.

The momentum number "tells you the Liberals aren't even in the race. They have essentially been eliminated as a contender," Woolstencroft said.

However, Ontarians aren't embracing the Conservatives to the same extent (change, in percentage points, from the Jan. 12, 14-15 poll in brackets):

Conservatives: 39 per cent (+1)
Liberals: 33 per cent (-1)
NDP: 20 per cent (unchanged)
Greens: 8 per cent (unchanged)
The Tories are showing significant strength over the Liberals in southwest and eastern Ontario (the 519 and 613 area codes). They hold a 42-26 lead over the Liberals in those areas.

However, in the Greater Toronto Area, the Liberals are in the lead (change, in percentage points, from the Jan. 12, 14-15 poll in brackets):

Liberals: 42 per cent (+6)
Conservatives: 35 per cent (-2)
NDP: 17 per cent (-2)
Greens: 6 per cent (-2)
"This is a different city than 20 years ago," which is the last time the Tories swept Toronto, Woolstencroft said.

The high numbers of immigrants, visible minorities and a large "creative class" makes the city lean towards small-l liberalism, he said, although the Liberal vote has dropped from 2004 and the Conservatives continue to make incremental gains.

On the Prairies, the Conservatives have 61 per cent support, while the NDP and Liberals have 17 per cent support each.

In B.C., the Conservatives are less dominant. They have 44 per cent support, while the NDP and Liberals are tied at 26 per cent.

 

[bluealberta]

Re: RE: NDP Rising, Conservatives Declining

Considering the "bottom line" drawn by the Honourable Jack Layton, I would actually not be too surprised to see a Conservative Government of Canada defeated for "violating" the apparent directives of the NDP.

Then again, my personal preference would be to have another minority. I don't mind going to the polls — it really isn't an inconvenience, in my opinion. It keeps things interesting, eh?

Why should a party that gets a small amount of seats and a small percentage of votes have a "line in the sand"? If Canadians wanted them to rule, they would have voted them into office. Jack is a little full of himself.

Neither the NDP or the LIBs is going to want another election very quickly for one very important reason: They cannot afford it. The Conservatives are the only part who will come out of this election without being in debt.

 

[Triple_R]

This CTV poll is interesting. Because it probably means one of three things...

1) The Liberals are going down so hard it's not even funny. Those Quebec numbers are incredible. Absolutely incredible. Martin's own seat might be in jeopardy! Also, the difference between the Liberals and the NDP have narrowed to such a degree that strategic voting goes out the window.

2) The Strategic Council, CTV, and the Globe and Mail (or some combination thereof) WANT the Conservatives to win big (and the Liberals to be utterly squashed), and hence are somehow biasing their own poll results (i.e. keep the momentum going for the Cons; hurt it for the Libs).

3) This poll is simply an exception to the "19 times out of 20" clause I hear about pretty much every poll. In other words, it's one of the one out of 20.

1 is mind-boggling, and something I'd personally love to see. 2 is very interesting. 3 is admittably boring, but hey, 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

 

[I think not]

Conservatives take 18-point lead, poll shows

Well that is just nuts, in one day they gained that much? Impossible.

 

[FiveParadox]

Simply because they are a less numerous party in the House of Commons should not impede their right to declare a loss of confidence in the Government on their part; even if it doesn't suit the agenda of the party in power.

It happened with the Liberal Government of Canada and, even though I did not support their decision, I support their right in Parliament to have done so.

 

[Hank C]

One must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party of Canada earns more seats than do the Liberals, they would not automatically become the Government; in a minority, the standing Prime Minister would have the first opportunity to secure the confidence of the House of Commons.

There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.

.....if this ever happened there would be outrage by our citizens! I can guarantee you that people in the west will start a seperatist party, and geeez do you think Quebec will take this Liberal lust for power positively??? And if they actually did this and we made it to another election.....they would get absolutely creamed and the Liberals will be outta office for decades...maybe the NDP will take the opportunity to become more centerist (boot layton) and take the place of the Liberals as a viable party.

....but no use talking about something that is not going to happen.... just can let go of Liberal power can ya :roll:

 

[FiveParadox]

Hank C, I was only offering another scenario.

And this has happened before — in 1925, the Liberal Government of Canada under the leadership of the Right Honourable William Lyon Mackenzie King continued to govern with the support of the Progressive Party of Canada, despite the fact that the Grits had lost to the Conservative Party of Canada by a decided eighteen seats.

 

[Triple_R]

On second thought... the Greater Toronto Area numbers makes me think this CTV poll could be legit. If they wanted to make the Conservatives look like an unstoppable juggernaut wiping Liberals out everywhere, you wouldn't have those numbers for Toronto. It almost makes sense to me... Toronto is the most culturally liberal part of Canada, and hence is fearful of a Conservative majority, and hence Liberal support is rising there. The rest of the country, much less concerned with cultural/social issues than Toronto is, is less afraid, and hence support for the Tories is growing. All else being equal, people like to vote for a winner, and a lot of people really want to have their representative be from the governing party. This is why Tory support is surging in many areas.

It's important to point out that Atlantic Canada isn't that concerned with cultural issues. Indeed, small c conservatism is still fairly prominent through out much of Atlantic Canada. Polls indicate that in my own province, of Newfoundland, same-sex marriage ranks very low as an important issue.

 

[bluealberta]

Conservatives take 18-point lead, poll shows

Well that is just nuts, in one day they gained that much? Impossible.

Maybe not. Maybe Liberal Canada is almost (not quite, but almost) as disgusted by the attack ads as are those of us on the right.

Watching Martin tonight, my 19 year old daughter, who will get to vote in her first election, asked us why Martin was not putting forth his ideas instead of continually attacking Harper. Out of the mouths of babes.

 

[bluealberta]

One must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party of Canada earns more seats than do the Liberals, they would not automatically become the Government; in a minority, the standing Prime Minister would have the first opportunity to secure the confidence of the House of Commons.

There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.

.....if this ever happened there would be outrage by our citizens! I can guarantee you that people in the west will start a seperatist party, and geeez do you think Quebec will take this Liberal lust for power positively??? And if they actually did this and we made it to another election.....they would get absolutely creamed and the Liberals will be outta office for decades...maybe the NDP will take the opportunity to become more centerist (boot layton) and take the place of the Liberals as a viable party.

....but no use talking about something that is not going to happen.... just can let go of Liberal power can ya :roll:

Hank C, you are absolutely correct. If the Liberals or NDP even contemplate this, it will be outrageous, and western, or Alberta, separatism will become far more public than the BQ ever dreamed of. If that happens, I will do everything I can to promote the separation of Alberta from the ROC, because democracy will be dead and buried in the ROC.

 

[Hank C]

On the Prairies, the Conservatives have 61 per cent support, while the NDP and Liberals have 17 per cent support each.

haha....the Fiberals have numbers comparable to the NDP on the praries....I hope that Alberta and our little brother to the east (Saskatchewan) paint the praries bright Tory blue on the 23rd......Mclellan will loose her seat ....and Goodale will be in for the fight of his short stalky life.

Picture this: Conservatives and Liberal neck and neck...then we hit Manitoba...but it gets worse with Sask, and then Alberta....and to cap it all off a strong showing in BC (25 ish seats).

 

[FiveParadox]

How would democracy be "dead and buried?" If a certain number of Members of Parliament were to represent more Canadians than the one party with the most seats, then why should they not be permitted to govern?

 

[Triple_R]

Conservatives take 18-point lead, poll shows

Well that is just nuts, in one day they gained that much? Impossible.

Not really. Let me explain to you why...

Much of the rejection of the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, and Quebec, was based purely on fear of the old regionalism of Harper's former parties - the Canadian Alliance and the Reform.
The Canadian Alliance and the Reform were seen as parties that would favour Alberta above and beyond every other Canadian province, and the west above and beyond evey other Canadian region. Basically, Quebecers and Atlantic Canadians said "Why should I vote for a government that would make the west more powerful at my regions' expense?".

It wasn't that most Canadians rejected the policies of the party, it's the fact that Haper's old party was simply seen as the party of the west... and nobody else. Harper is eradicating that image of the "party of the west" with surging support in Quebec, including notable endorsements by La Presse (Quebec's New York Times, if you will), Quebec Premier Jean Charest, and provincial party leader Mario Dumont.

Also, when we Canadians change federal governments, we usually do so in flying colours. I do think that there's even a tendency to build voter concensus in Canada - much different in the US where you have the Republican/Democrat dichotomy with small incremental shifts one way or the other every year or so.

 

[bluealberta]

Re: RE: NDP Rising, Conservatives Declining

How would democracy be "dead and buried?" If a certain number of Members of Parliament were to represent more Canadians than the one party with the most seats, then why should they not be permitted to govern?

Ignoring the wishes of the majority under our FPTP system is against democracy.

It amazes me that the left can use the FPTP system to justify winning an election with 38% of the vote, then deny the rights of the majority of people who voted for one party, even in a minority position. Hypocrisy at its best on behalf of the LIberals.