NDP Rising, Conservatives Declining

[Jersay]

Now, with five or six days left, I think some Liberal voters have finally listened to Jack Layton. The Conservatives are down 5 percentage points, and the NDP are up three.

EKOS January 16

Liberal: 29.6

Conservative: 35.8

NDP: 19.4

BLOC: 11.6

Green: 3.4

And as the chant goes,

NDP ... NDP ... NDP!

Also, on another topic, if the election was held on the 6th or 13th like Martin's strategists wanted, wouldn't Martin still be in power, technically.

 

[FiveParadox]

Minority Status

One must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party of Canada earns more seats than do the Liberals, they would not automatically become the Government; in a minority, the standing Prime Minister would have the first opportunity to secure the confidence of the House of Commons.

There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.

 

[Jersay]

Well, hopefully, the NDP will continue to rise. Bright days for the NDP is ahead.

 

[Jay]

Re: Minority Status

One must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party of Canada earns more seats than do the Liberals, they would not automatically become the Government; in a minority, the standing Prime Minister would have the first opportunity to secure the confidence of the House of Commons.

There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.

Good luck with that.

 

[Jersay]

Happened before, and if it is apart of the canadian parlimentary system, it could happen again.

 

[FiveParadox]

Jay, please review the events surrounding the House of Commons on or around 1925; I am sure that a site such as Wikipedia.org would have something on Canadian elections and Parliaments.

 

[Jay]

I just doubt anyone would do anything like that in this political environment.

 

[Jersay]

If you want to hang onto power, and you have support from other parties to do it you will. Sorry, but that is politics.

It might not be liked, and the party might be annihilated in a later election however like I said before, if you want ot remain in power you will do what you have to do in the political structure of the parliment.

 

[Toro]

Statistical noise.

 

[Toro]

RE: NDP Rising, Conservat

Watch the latest polls here

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html

 

[Calberty]

Just released on CTV:

Svend the NDP Thief's party: 16%
Conservatives: 42%

More striking in Quebec

Cons 31%
Libs 12%
Svends 7%

 

[KanBob]

Now, with five or six days left, I think some Liberal voters have finally listened to Jack Layton. The Conservatives are down 5 percentage points, and the NDP are up three.

EKOS January 16

Liberal: 29.6

Conservative: 35.8

NDP: 19.4

BLOC: 11.6

Green: 3.4

And as the chant goes,

NDP ... NDP ... NDP!

Also, on another topic, if the election was held on the 6th or 13th like Martin's strategists wanted, wouldn't Martin still be in power, technically.

Yes, I just watched that decline on CTV.

Conservatives 42
Liberals 24

Looks like the electorate is making a decision.

 

[KanBob]

Re: Minority Status

One must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party of Canada earns more seats than do the Liberals, they would not automatically become the Government; in a minority, the standing Prime Minister would have the first opportunity to secure the confidence of the House of Commons.

There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.

Except Martin has said, on the record, that he won't try to form the government if he has fewer seats.

No of course, that doesn't mean he won't try to form the government if he has fewer seats. It just means he said he won't.


Good luck with that.

 

[I think not]

Re: RE: NDP Rising, Conservatives Declining

Just released on CTV:

Svend the NDP Thief's party: 16%
Conservatives: 42%

More striking in Quebec

Cons 31%
Libs 12%
Svends 7%

:laughing3:

 

[#juan]

“CPAC-SES tracking has the Harper-led Conservatives ahead of the Martin Liberals by seven points. National support for the Conservatives stands at 37%, followed by the Liberals at 30%, the NDP at 18%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 4%. In the key battleground of Ontario the Liberals have regained some ground and are now tied with the Conservatives at 38%. The Harper lead over Martin as the best PM is four points.” – Nik Nanos, President, SES Research.



Polling January 14 to 16, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,200 Canadians, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com.



All values in parenthesis are changes from our first day of tracking on December 1, 2005.



Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended January 16, 2006)

CP 37% (+8)

LIB 30% (-7)

NDP 18% (+3)

BQ 10% (-4)

GP 4 (-1)

*16% of Canadians were undecided (NC)



In Quebec

BQ 44% (-6)

CP 22% (+13)

LIB 20% (-10)

NDP 12% (+6)

GP 3% (-3)

*21% of Quebecers were undecided (+10)



Outside Quebec

CP 41% (+4)

LIB 34% (-5)

NDP 20% (+1)

GP 5% (NC)

*14% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (-3)



In Ontario

CP 38% (+5)

LIB 38% (-5)

NDP 20% (+2)

GP 4% (-1)

*16% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (-4)

I sure wouldn't call the CPC a shoo-in by any stretch. This battle is for the right to lead a minority government. CPC, or Liberal, I don't know which.

 

[Calberty]

On CTV just now (and Globe and Mail0

Cons 42
Libs 24
Svends 17

 

[JomZ]

How many times do I have to bring that up on this board that polls are not a good indicator of elections, due too many reasons? They are merely a barometer to measure the feel of the population.

Also by the fact that these polls are done pretty much daily, it shows that there is not a consistent number across the board to indicate their reflection on the general populaces outlook. Some say CPC has 42% some 37%, that’s a big difference when it comes to electorate populations in the millions.

If you rely on them to gauge your party’s standing, then prepare to be surprised come election day because that is the only day that POLLING ACTUALLY MEANS A DAMN.

 

[Finder]

Speaking as an NDP member, supporter and moderate. The NDP could show in a poll 40% but really unless we lived in a different electoral system, these numbers mean little. It will be very hard to unseat any sitting Liberal or Conservative, or even Bloc, it's about 10 times harder for an NDPer to unseat a Liberal or Conservative then it is for a Conservative. Because of how regional voting trends the NDP support is spread out more thinly and the Liberal and Conservative tend to be more concentraited, and the Bloc is the most dence support out of all of them, of course. Really NDP and even Green voter will most likely be disappointed in this election. BUT, it's fptp if the votes get split the right way anything is possibly.

 

[Finder]

Re: RE: NDP Rising, Conservatives Declining

On CTV just now (and Globe and Mail0

Cons 42
Libs 24
Svends 17

Calbertly I'm not a Svend, and your endless grandiloquence against Svend and the NDP are tiresome and I take personal offence that you would group all NDPers into supporters of Scend. It's to the point where I'd expect you to call the NDP Svendism. Most people don't care about Svend, don't know who he is and or just won't vote for him in the one riding he is in. He's going to lose, so please for the love of sanity stop you crusade in trying to pin the NDP as Svends. For goodness gloery the guy stole a ring paid the price, gave up his seat and is now trying to get one back. He's done nothing wrong since.

f*ck.

 

[FiveParadox]

Tightening of the Race

I would predict that, as we approach the day of the Thirty-ninth General Election, we are going to see the support between the Liberal Government and the Conservative Opposition even out; I would think that many citizens of Canada are not yet ready to "hand over the reigns" to either party with a majority in the House of Commons.

:arrow: In Response to Another Post

I would agree — please let the issue of Svend Robinson rest. In all likelihood, Hedy Fry will continue to hold the riding; and notwithstanding that fact, in my opinion, it seemed as if the Honourable Jack Layton was reluctant to give Mr. Robinson another opportunity to enter into the NDP caucus.