National disunity is Jeremy Corbyn’s only future — he can’t thwart Brexit

[Blackleaf]

There are two huge flaws in the Remainers' latest plan to thwart Brexit...

JAMES FORSYTH National disunity is Jeremy Corbyn’s only future — he can’t thwart Boris Johnson’s Brexit

COMMENT
James Forsyth
The Sun
10 Aug 2019

THE latest plan to thwart Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy is a so-called government of national unity.

The idea is he’d be forced out in a vote of no confidence in September and replaced by a caretaker PM who would request an extension to our EU membership before resigning and calling a general election.

National disunity is Corbyn's only future — he can't thwart Boris Johnson's Brexit strategy, writes James Forsyth

But this ain't going to happen. There are two huge flaws with this plan.

First, it wouldn’t be a government of national unity as its sole purpose would be to extend our membership of the EU, which would make it one of the more divisive governments in living memory.

Second, Jeremy Corbyn won’t back anyone else for Number 10 while Tory rebels and the Lib Dems aren’t prepared to support him. This means that the numbers just don’t work.

There are three reasons why Corbyn won’t send his MPs through the lobbies to make anyone but him PM.

If he supported another Labour figure for the job, he’d be suggesting that they’d be a better leader than him: If they’re more able to win over the Commons, why not the country?

But if he backed a Tory, he’d be weakening his whole argument about “Tory austerity”. If Corbyn allowed in anyone else, he’d also be creating a precedent.

'AIN'T GOING TO HAPPEN'

This is dangerous for him as there’s every chance that the next election returns a messy result and Labour’s only chance of governing would be as part of a multi-party coalition.

If he had stepped aside previously, it would be easier for other parties to demand that he did so again to allow a government to be formed.

So, if a government of national unity isn’t going to happen, what is? Much turns on what happens at the G7 Summit in Biarritz in a fortnight.

This will be the first time that Johnson has met Jean-Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel face to face since becoming Prime Minister.

Right now, it seems unlikely that much will come out of this summit. But it does give Boris and EU leaders a chance to talk without anyone having to back down before discussions can begin.

One of those close to Boris says, “There’ll be an opportunity for anyone in the EU who wants to get a conversation going”. But it’s clear that Boris isn’t budging from his position that the “undemocratic backstop” has to go.

If this summit doesn’t change the mood, then we might well be heading for a no confidence vote and an election. To stay in government, the Tories would need to win a majority — or come very close to doing so.

The only party likely to do a deal with them in another hung parliament is the DUP, who’ll have a maximum of ten MPs. By contrast, Labour has more potential coalition partners.

John McDonnell’s willingness to entertain a second Scottish independence referendum is a recognition that Corbyn is highly unlikely to win a majority and so will need Scottish Nationalist support to get into Downing Street.

In any election campaign, expect the Tories to take aim at Labour’s potential coalition partners. They’ll also seek to emphasise that the choice for Prime Minister is between Johnson and Corbyn.

They hope that this can help them fend off a Lib Dem challenge in their southern seats. As one of those being consulted on the Tory strategy puts it, that is “why you need to increase the cost of Corbyn in people’s minds”.

What is certain is that the next general election is going to be the most important and most unpredictable contest in a generation.

Corbyn won’t back anyone else for Number 10 while Tory rebels aren’t prepared to support him, writes James ForsythCredit: Getty Images - Getty

Control — the immigration keyword

IF you want to know what difference having a Brexiteer in Number 10 makes, look at Boris Johnson’s plan to make it easier for scientists from around the world to come to Britain.

What Boris Johnson gets is that those who voted to Leave want control over immigration rather than an end to it.

Leave voters aren't interested in ending immigration, then just want it under control Credit: Getty - Contributor

The public are relaxed about immigration that they see as being beneficial to the country and the economy. No one is going to get upset if UK universities and research labs turn into the premier league of science, with the best researchers from across the world coming here to work.

So, Theresa May’s numerical target for immigration – reducing it to the tens of thousands – is gone to be replaced by a more sensible approach which is happy to see high-skilled immigration increase but wants more control over immigration lower down the wage scale.

If that leads to companies having to pay staff more or firms investing in labour-saving technology then that wouldn’t be a bad thing either.

Fine dining is a must for Boris

ON Monday, Boris Johnson will start holding a series of intimate dinners in Number 10.These are hugely important.

Johnson wants to use them to win round those Tory MPs worried about No Deal, who might join in parliamentary efforts to force an extension or even bring down the government.I understand that at these dinners, Boris Johnson will emphasise that he wants a deal with the EU and that he thinks his approach is the best way to get one.At the same time, he’ll also emphasise his domestic agenda and that the Tory party has to stick together if Jeremy Corbyn is to be defeated.When the crunch votes come in September, we’ll find out whether this was enough to reassure these pivotal MPs.

Boris is a man with a mission

EXPECT to see more of Boris Johnson out in the country over the coming weeks.

I am told that Johnson keeps arguing for more time away from Number 10 and out and about with the public.

Boris is keen to be out with the people — expect to see more of him Credit: PAress Association

“He is always pushing to do more people stuff in the week . . . it’s his comfort zone,” says one insider. There’s a logic to this too, given how likely an election in the next few months is.

There’s little point in cutting down on campaigning now when he could end up having to go to the country at any moment once parliament returns in September.

Trump sends out his heavy hitters

Dominic Raab meets Mike Pence

DONALD TRUMP is not the easiest, or least complicated, ally to have.

But when the new Foreign Secretary met the US President in the Oval Office this week, Vice President Mike Pence and the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were also in attendance alongside the US Ambassador to the UK.

The seniority of the cast list was meant to send a message about the Trump administration’s seriousness about building ties with the new government.

Trump and Boris Johnson will meet for the first since Johnson became PM at the G7 in France later this month. Expect much talk of a US/UK trade deal.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/96929...-boris-johnsons-brexit-opinion-james-forsyth/

 

[Curious Cdn]

If a piano drops on Jeremy Corbin five minutes from now, national unity will remain an issue, for you for a very long time to come.

 

[Blackleaf]

If a piano drops on Jeremy Corbin five minutes from now, national unity will remain an issue, for you for a very long time to come.

If a piano drops on Jeremy Corbyn I sincerely would hope that it would have been filmed and put on YouTube.

 

[Curious Cdn]

If a piano drops on Jeremy Corbyn I sincerely would hope that it would have been filmed and put on YouTube.

... and nothing will change in Britain ...

 

[Blackleaf]

... and nothing will change in Britain ...

Apart from Brexit.

 

[Blackleaf]

The Labour Party's plan to end democracy and Brexit and to jail political opponents (yes, you read that correctly)...

 

[Curious Cdn]

Apart from Brexit.

Which will change nothing except for your GDP. You will still have to live with your miserable selves, afterward.

 

[Blackleaf]

Which will change nothing except for your GDP.

It'll actually change a lot of things.

 

[Blackleaf]

If the EU is so beneficial for member states' economies, giving them huge economic growth and prosperity, then why are France, Germany and Italy in the economic doldrums and lagging behind Britain? Being in the EU doesn't seem to be helping them...

ROSS CLARK Don’t be fooled by EU’s poker face…we hold the best cards in the game of Brexit
negotiations

COMMENT
Ross Clark
The Sun
7 Aug 2019

REMEMBER how EU economies were supposed to soar ahead as the UK descended into a self-inflicted, Brexit-induced slump?

We were warned about this before the referendum and have been told almost continuously for the past three years a British recession is just around the corner. But things aren’t quite working out that way.

Macron, Varadkar and Barnier must know the UK holds the best cards

While the UK economy is far from booming, it is holding up much better than those in the Eurozone. Figures released yesterday show Germany’s manufacturing sector contracted by 1.5 per cent in July and is now a shocking 5.2 per cent smaller than it was a year ago.

Given the importance of manufacturing to the German economy, it is likely the whole economy is now heading for recession — a fate the country only narrowly avoided at the end of last year.

In Italy, too, economic growth has ground to a halt again — after the country only just hauled itself out of last year’s recession. In France, growth in the past three months fell to 0.2 per cent.

By contrast, our economy looks relatively perky, with growth of 0.3 per cent in the three months to May. Figures released on Monday showed a rebound in confidence in the dominant services sector.

Of the large Eurozone countries, only Spain is currently outgrowing us — but Spain is still recovering after a very deep recession from which it emerged in 2015. In common with Italy, the Spanish economy is still smaller than it was before the 2008-09 banking crisis.

Not that you will hear any of this from Remainers. Every time a car factory is earmarked for closure or a steelworks runs into problems, we hear no end of people saying, “We told you so”.

All bad news in the UK economy is automatically attributed to Brexit — on the BBC, especially. What we don’t hear is that manufacturing industries, especially cars and steel, are suffering the same problems across Europe.

Germany’s car industry is still reeling from the scandal of Volkswagen cheating in emissions tests by installing software to detect when a car was in test mode.

On top of that comes the proposed switch from petrol and diesel to electric cars. Many motorists — myself included — have put off buying new vehicles because we don’t know what to get.

We have been told new petrol and diesel cars will be banned from 2040 and worry they might be taxed out of existence well before then. Yet electric cars are still prohibitively expensive and can’t travel nearly far enough between charges.

As for the steel industry, all across Europe it is struggling to compete with cheap competition from China — especially since the trade war with the US forced Chinese exporters to search for new markets away from America.

Of course, if we end up with a No-Deal Brexit and tariffs are imposed on imports and exports between Britain and the EU, it will cause some disruption to trade. But it is wrong to assume Britain will come off worse. In truth, EU exporters have more to lose. Britain runs a huge trade deficit with the EU.

In 2018 we exported £289billion worth of goods and services to other EU countries and imported £345billion from them — a trade gap of £56billion. Moreover, EU exports to Britain are concentrated in products that attract relatively high tariffs.

Cars, for example, attract an EU import tariff of ten per cent. If Britain chooses to impose that levy in reverse after Brexit, it will cause further mayhem in the German car industry.

We also have a high deficit in food — which under EU rules attracts average tariffs of 11 per cent. For dairy products, the average EU import tariff is 36 per cent. If our Government decides to impose this on imports from the EU, it will mean the end of quite a few French cheese producers.

Of course, the EU can avoid damaging these export industries by agreeing to a trade deal with the UK — one that doesn’t include the hated Irish backstop.
Ireland, by the way, stands to lose most from No Deal and a hard border.

Nearly half of Irish food exports go to the UK. Irish exports to other EU countries would be deeply affected as so many rely on UK roads. If there are delays at ports, traffic between Ireland and the Continent will suffer twice over — once crossing the Irish Sea then crossing the English Channel.

EU leaders want to punish Britain for voting to leave their sacred project. They fear that if Britain is seen to do well, other countries will want to leave. But playing hardball with Britain will do deep harm to their own export industries.

Does German chancellor Angela Merkel want to suffer the wrath of her country’s car makers? Does French president Emmanuel Macron wish to anger winemakers already struggling with an economic downturn at home?

A hard Brexit could cost Denmark as much as one per cent in lost gross domestic product. Their former economy minister Simon Emil Ammitzboll calls Brexit “the most visible threat to the Danish economy”.

Holland and Belgium calculate similar falls will hit their economies, with the Dutch losing ten billion euros by 2030. In Spain, wages for unskilled youths are lower than they were in the late 1990s. Youth unemployment is a huge problem. Even qualified youths face a lower annual salary than their counterparts a decade ago.

The alternative to all this is for the EU to swallow a bit of pride and agree to keep free trade flowing, perhaps via a temporary deal while long-term arrangements are negotiated.

It won’t take much. Just remove the backstop — really just an underhand way of trying to keep Britain in the straitjacket of EU regulations and trade barriers — and some kind of withdrawal agreement would almost certainly make it through the Commons.

If not, then yes, British industry will suffer in some ways from No Deal. But the Eurozone economies already lagging behind will take the bigger hit.

Does German chancellor Angela Merkel want to suffer the wrath of her country’s car makers? Credit: AFP or licensors

EU leaders want to punish Britain for voting to leave their sacred project because they fear that if Britain is seen to do well, other countries will want to leave Credit: Getty - Contributor

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9677250/uk-holds-the-best-cards-brexit/

 

[Serryah]

Corbyn won't win, that's for sure.


And BoJo won't hold any election before the newest Brexit date because he has a chance of not being elected PM with the mandate of his party, and that's too great a risk for him to go to a general. He'll do it after Brexit, when it won't matter as much.


Personally I just wish Britain would just go, get it over with. That the EU would stop allowing the dates to be extended. Really, it's like watching a bad soap with a bad romance between two people who don't love each other but are still for some reason a couple.

 

[Blackleaf]

Corbyn won't win, that's for sure.
And BoJo won't hold any election before the newest Brexit date because he has a chance of not being elected PM with the mandate of his party, and that's too great a risk for him to go to a general. He'll do it after Brexit, when it won't matter as much.
Personally I just wish Britain would just go, get it over with. That the EU would stop allowing the dates to be extended. Really, it's like watching a bad soap with a bad romance between two people who don't love each other but are still for some reason a couple.

It seems likely that Johnson is going to call a General Election on 1st November, the day after independence.

It will be an unusual day for an election. It's a Friday and British elections are traditionally held on a Thursday. And he'll win it, likely in a landslide.

Polls already show the Tories pulling further ahead of Labour since Johnson became PM, and it'll be a battle between parties which wish to honour the democratic decision of the people and those parties who wish to overturn it.

It's obvious Johnson will win.

 

[Serryah]

It seems likely that Johnson is going to call a General Election on 1st November, the day after independence.

It will be an unusual day for an election. It's a Friday and British elections are traditionally held on a Thursday. And he'll win it, likely in a landslide.

Polls already show the Tories pulling further ahead of Labour since Johnson became PM, and it'll be a battle between parties which wish to honour the democratic decision of the people and those parties who wish to overturn it.

It's obvious Johnson will win.

We'll see if BoJo wins.


But having it after Brexit is... meh. Not shocking really.


That is, if it happens. I'm not holding my breath or anything until I actually see that the Brits have left the EU officially.


That said, I hope they do, for a lot of reasons.

 

[Blackleaf]

We'll see if BoJo wins.
But having it after Brexit is... meh. Not shocking really.
That is, if it happens. I'm not holding my breath or anything until I actually see that the Brits have left the EU officially.
That said, I hope they do, for a lot of reasons.

He was elected by his party to take Britain out of the EU. So that's his priority. An election isn't. I think he's right to wait after Brexit.

 

[Serryah]

He was elected by his party to take Britain out of the EU. So that's his priority. An election isn't. I think he's right to wait after Brexit.

OMG FINALLY.


You admit he was 'elected' by his party, NOT the people of Britain!

Also, it's true, he was selected to take the country out of the EU.

I'm just saying, and have been saying, you CANNOT claim he is Britain's PM if he doesn't hold a general election to actually gain that status. As YOU just said, he was party selected.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

We'll see if BoJo wins.

Ahem!

The contraction is "BoreJo."

 

[Blackleaf]

OMG FINALLY.

You admit he was 'elected' by his party, NOT the people of Britain!

I don't have to admit to anything. I know perfectly well how our parliamentary system works. More so than you, it seems.

And I have pointed out before that it seems only natural and right that only party members choose their leader. Why on Earth would you allow just anybody - LibDem supporters, Labour supporters, Green supporters, Brexit Party supporters - to choose the leaders of the Conservative Party? It would be bizarre and unfair. The general public don't choose the leaders of other organisations, like the Boy Scouts or the British Archaeology Council, so why should they choose the leaders of political parties? Only members should choose their leader.


And it wasn't, of course, MPs who chose Johnson in that final round of voting. It was the ordinary Tory Party members amongst the public.

I'm just saying, and have been saying, you CANNOT claim he is Britain's PM if he doesn't hold a general election to actually gain that status. As YOU just said, he was party selected.

Yes I can claim he is PM, because that's precisely what he is.

I can say he is PM even though he hasn't faced a General Election because, under the parliamentary system that Britain has operated for centuries, a person doesn't have to win an election in order to become PM. And Boris isn't unusual in this regard. He's normal. Most British PMs since 1900 have come to power this way. Four of the last six have - Major, Brown, May and Johnson. Churchill did.

So why you're acting all dismayed at Johnson coming to power without an election when we've had this system for centuries and four of our last six PMs came to power without an election is something of a mystery.