The reason Harper won't win is that his haircut scares the shit out of people is more like it. The average 'man on the street' doesn't know what the policies are of the Conservatives (or any other party for that matter). All he knows is what the left-leaning media tell him.
No, the reason that Harper won't win is that one or more of his MPs will make a stupid statement about abortions. The other parties will then point out the hypocrisy of the Conservative non-position. More of his MPs will then say something stupid about the environment. The other parties will then go after the CPC for their regressive envronmental policies. Another Conservative, likely Ralph Klein, will then attack health care, and the other parties will then point out that the Conservatives want to privatise health care. Eventually the spectre of religion will come up and, since this is not the US, the CPC will get whipped like a cheap hound on that too.
Everything that the other parties go after the Conservatives on will be based on statements of very recognisable Conservatives, including Stephen Harper. The Conservatives will try to deny what's said about them, but because it will be backed by quotes by Conservatives, it will look like they have a hidden agenda. The Conservatives will then blame the press and Canadians, who will once again vote Liberal.
In other words, the problem is with CPC policy and the constant dishonest attempts to hide what that policy is.
There is no left-leaning press in Canada, MMMike. Our press is owned and controlled by very conservative special interests. They still have to report the news though, and the news is that the Conservatives have policies that Canadians don't like.